"I think all of us are looking at the future with yesterday's eyes." - Dan Burrus

 

Sales and listings stats are attached as of October 15, 2016. The real estate market continues to be the target of government regulatory changes. The latest being mortgage rule changes that took effect October 17th. These changes have added a “stress test” to mortgage qualifying which essentially requires anyone with less than 20 per cent down payment to qualify at a rate of 4.64 per cent as opposed to the lower negotiated rates. The effect is lowering the purchasing power of some buyers – mostly first time buyers. The effects of this and other regulatory changes are weighing on a market that was already in adjustment.

 

The numbers for October are showing so far similar pattern for sales as September. There is no refuting that sales are down from the last two years and below the 10 year average. But inventories are not increasing to any great degree with less new listings coming on the market in October compared to September, a trend to continue through the remainder of the year. With less demand though, opportunities are presenting themselves to buyers that haven’t been in the market for some time. And by November we may be in a position to see Total Active Listings above the level from the year previous, a change from what has been the norm over the last few years.

 

Sales and Listings Stats Houses Townhouses Condos Oct 15 2016

 

Sales and Listings Stats All Residential Oct 15 2016

 

Here is a summary of the activity so far:

 

Greater Vancouver –1,015 Units Sold so far in October 2016 compared to 1,126 Units Sold by September 19, 2016. Total New Listings so far in September are 2,008 compared to 2,693 by September 19, 2016. Total Active Listings are at 10,037 (11,405 at the same time in October 2015), Sales To Listings Ratio is at 51% compared to 42% at this time in September 2016.

 

Vancouver West - 197 Units Sold so far in October 2016 compared to 219 Units Sold by September 19, 2016. Total New Listings so far in September are 364 compared to 517 by September 19, 2016. Total Active Listings are at 1,663 (1,942 at the same time in October 2015), Sales To Listings Ratio is at 54% compared to 42% at this time in September 2016.

 

Vancouver East – 82 Units Sold so far in October 2016 compared to 80 Units Sold by September 19, 2016. Total New Listings so far in September are 250 compared to 299 by September 19, 2016. Total Active Listings are at 1,046 (839 at the same time in October 2015), Sales To Listings Ratio is at 33% compared to 27% at this time in September 2016.

 

North Vancouver – 73 Units Sold so far in October 2016 compared to 89 Units Sold by September 19, 2016. Total New Listings so far in September are 156 compared to 274 by September 19, 2016. Total Active Listings are at 581 (548 at the same time in October 2015), Sales To Listings Ratio is at 47% compared to 32% at this time in September 2016.

 

West Vancouver – 11 Units Sold so far in October 2016 compared to 14 Units Sold by September 19, 2016. Total New Listings so far in September are 70 compared to 115 by September 19, 2016. Total Active Listings are at 522 (596 at the same time in October 2015), Sales To Listings Ratio is at 16% compared to 12% at this time in September 2016.

 

Richmond – 126 Units Sold so far in October 2016 compared to 129 Units Sold by September 19, 2016. Total New Listings so far in September are 240 compared to 299 by September 19, 2016. Total Active Listings are at 1,399 (1,623 at the same time in October 2015), Sales To Listings Ratio is at 53% compared to 43% at this time in September 2016.

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Wanting to be liked can get in the way of truth. - Delia Ephron

 

This is the Sales and Listings Report updated to the end of September 2016. Once again numbers are the story, with the total number of sales in the Greater Vancouver real estate market showing a decline for the 4th straight month. Not a sudden shift as one would be lead to believe. Greater Vancouver homes sales were 2,304 in September, down 10% from August and down 33% from September 2015. North Vancouver was one of the bright spots with home sales up 13% from August. The detached housing market continues to be slower than the attached housing market. The mix of detached homes sales in September is down to 29% of total sales compared to 38% in September 2015 and 42% at the peak of the market in February 2016. That is what has brought down the average sales price in Greater Vancouver as the average is simply a calculation based on the sales mix. And this decrease has been happening since April. And let us not forget, that the increase in the Property Transfer Tax from 2% to 3% on the fair market value above $2,000,000 had an effect on the market through the spring. To truly understand pricing in today’s market, looking at the most recent sales will be the best way to tell where the market it at.

 

With the passing of each day, there seems to be a new government measure to ease pressure on the real estate market followed by the media feeding into the frenzy of negative reporting. Yes real estate markets were normalizing even before the Foreign Buyer tax came into effect, but what the tax did do is accelerate that normalization. The Foreign Buyer numbers reported by the government for August were reflective of a significant number of foreign buyers moving their contract closing dates up to the end of July. And realistically, any closings that would make up this report for August, would be based on contracts written in July. The numbers through the fall will provide a better account.

 

British Columbia still enjoys being the strongest performing economy in Canada, with a diversified base of economic activity – film production, tourism, strong retail sales, etc. The homeownership rate continues to climb in Metro Vancouver, and population growth is consistent. New home permit applications are at record levels right now, but unoccupied new homes are at record low levels. By 2041, only 10% of housing stock in Vancouver will be single detached homes compared to 28% in 2011. Making that a product that will always be sought after and hard to get. Multifamily will continue to be the majority of sales, increasing more and more going forward.

 

Sales and Listings Stats Report Houses Townhouses Condos for End of September 2016

 

Sales and Listings Stats Report All Regional for End of September 2016

 

 

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

 

Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in September 2016 was 2,304 – down from 2,554 (10%) in August 2016, down from 3,423 (33%) in September 2015, down from 2,965 (22%) in September 2014; Active Listings are at 10,061 compared to 11,825 at this time last year; New Listings in September 2016 were down 1% compared to September 2015, up 12% from August 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings remained at 4 Months (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 47% compared to 69% in September 2015 and 58% in August 2016.

 

Vancouver Westside Residential: Total Units Sold in September 2016 was 426 – down from 452 (6%) in August 2016, down from 609 (30%) in September 2015, down from 643 (34%) in September 2014; Active Listings are at 1,671 compared to 1,995 at this time last year; New Listings in September 2016 were down 10% compared to September 2015, up 21% from August 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is up to 4 Months (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 45% compared to 57% in September 2015 and 57% in August 2016.

 

Vancouver Eastside Residential Total Units Sold in September 2016 was 200 – down from 218 (8%) in August 2016, down from 350 (43%) in September 2015, down from 271 (26%) in September 2014; Active Listings are at 1,005 compared to 876 at this time last year; New Listings in September 2016 were up 17% compared to September 2015, up 20% from August 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is up to 5 Months (Balanced Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 36% compared to 74% in September 2015 and 47% in August 2016.

 

North Vancouver Residential:  Total Units Sold in September 2016 was 182 – up from 161 (13%) in August 2016, down from 255 (29%) in September 2015, down from 197 (8%) in September 2014; Active Listings are at 567 compared to 580 at this time last year; New Listings in September 2016 were up 13% compared to September 2015, up 63% from August 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is up to 3 Months (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 41% compared to 65% in September 2015 and 59% in August 2016.

 

West Vancouver Houses: Total Units Sold in September 2016 was 39 – down from  (32%) in August 2016, down from 100 (61%) in September 2015, down from 110 (65%) in September 2014; Active Listings are at 518 compared to 621 at this time last year; New Listings in September 2016 were down 13% compared to September 2015, up 79% from August 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings remained at 13 Months (Buyer’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 19% compared to 41% in September 2015 and 49% in August 2016.

 

Richmond Residential: Total Units Sold in September 2016 was 269 – down from 324 (17%) in August 2016, down from 457 (41%) in September 2015, down from 386 (30%) in September 2014; Active Listings are at 1,425 compared to 1,698 at this time last year; New Listings in September 2016 were down 20% compared to September 2015, down 7% from August 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings up to 5 Months (Balanced Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 49% compared to 66% in September 2015 and 55% in August 2016.

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