"Your attitude is either the lock on, or the key to the door of success." - Denis Waitley

 

Sales and listings stats are attached as of January 14, 2017. January has been a little cold to start – in all aspects of the market and weather. While sales have been slower to start, the number of new listings have been just as slow to come on the market. Resulting in less inventory available in overall than at this time last year. The colder weather and snow on the ground playing a part in some areas. But certainly the lack of product on the market is keeping some buyers waiting for the new listings to come!  We are of course only two weeks into the year so before too many conclusions are drawn and predictions are made, let’s see where the rest of the month goes! Here is a summary of the activity so far:

 

Sales and Listings Stats Jan 14 2016 All Regional

 

Sales and Listings Stats Jan 14 2016 Houses Townhouses Condos

 

Greater Vancouver – 492 Units Sold so far in January 2017 compared to 999 Units Sold so far at this time in January 2016. Total New Listings so far in January are 1,540 compared to 2,028 at this point in January 2016. Total Active Listings are at 6,778 compared to 6,871 at this time last year. Sales To Listings Ratio is at 32% compared to 57% in January 2016.

 

Vancouver West - 82 Units Sold so far in January 2017 compared to 192 Units Sold so far at this time in January 2016. Total New Listings so far in January are 314 compared to 406 at this point in January 2016. Total Active Listings are at 1,092 compared to 1,092 at this time last year. Sales To Listings Ratio is at 26% compared to 48% in January 2016.

 

Vancouver East – 39 Units Sold so far in January 2017 compared to 74 Units Sold so far at this time in January 2016. Total New Listings so far in January are 134 compared to 181 at this point in January 2016. Total Active Listings are at 760 compared to 472 at this time last year. Sales To Listings Ratio is at 29% compared to 53% in January 2016.

 

North Vancouver – 38 Units Sold so far in January 2017 compared to 56 Units Sold so far at this time in January 2016. Total New Listings so far in January are 103 compared to 137 at this point in January 2016. Total Active Listings are at 309 compared to 280 at this time last year. Sales To Listings Ratio is at 37% compared to 54% in January 2016.

 

West Vancouver – 9 Units Sold so far in January 2017 compared to 45 Units Sold so far at this time in January 2016. Total New Listings so far in January are 60 compared to 106 at this point in January 2016. Total Active Listings are at 338 compared to 366 at this time last year. Sales To Listings Ratio is at 15% compared to 46% in January 2016.

 

Richmond – 93 Units Sold so far in January 2017 compared to 146 Units Sold so far at this time in January 2016. Total New Listings so far in January are 258 compared to 267 at this point in January 2016. Total Active Listings are at 976 compared to 1,046 at this time last year. Sales To Listings Ratio is at 36% compared to 64% in January 2016.

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"The tragedy of life doesn't lie in not reaching your goal. The tragedy lies in having no goal to reach." - Benjamin Mays

 

Happy New Year! All the best for a successful 2017 ahead!

 

Attached are the end of December 2016 Sales and Listings Stats. And what a year it was! A record breaking first half of the year and then a shift in the complete opposite direction for the last half. In Greater Vancouver there were 26,439 properties sold in the first six months and 14,441 sales in the last six months of 2016. In the Fraser Valley the story was similar, with 14,732 properties sold in the first six months and 8,160 in the last six months. Interesting to see given effects of the Foreign Buyer Tax would have been less pronounced in the Fraser Valley and indicating that the market was already in a self-correcting stage to finish the year. What remained constant, was the lack of homes for sale in the market. And that culminated with an exclamation point in December with only 1,350 properties listed in Greater Vancouver in December – 35 percent below December of last year and 22 percent below the lowest amount of new listings in the month of December going back to 1991. With that, January 2017 started with 6,109 properties on the market compared to 6,173 at the beginning of 2016. So while demand declined through the last half of the year, an accumulation of inventory did not happen. The Home Price Index showed that prices across the region declined in the last 3 to 6 months of the year.

 

Some highlights in market areas during 2016:

 

  • The once saturated condo market in Richmond saw a dramatic decline in inventory with the number of apartments on the market declining to 281 at year end compared to a high of over 1,000 in 2015 and 2014.
  • The number of Active Listings for Detached Houses in East Vancouver went from 280 in January to 692 by November. Tsawwassen and Ladner saw similar percentage increases in Active Listings
  • The number of sales of West Vancouver Detached Houses dropped to 22 in September compared to a high of 146 in March
  • The number of sales of Detached Houses on Vancouver’s West Side dropped to 60 in September from a high of 230 in April

 

So while many like to speak in general terms about the Vancouver real estate market, it is very much a regional and product differentiated market. While the detached market saw a quick and significant decline in activity starting in May, the townhouse and apartment market remained more active (albeit less so than it was in the first half of the year). But active nonetheless with multiple offers and prices still showing growth. And it can be argued that the higher end of the market has seen a correction in pricing as 2016 came to a close. Prices gained in the first half of 2016 in some cases were not being achieved in the second half with Vancouver, West Vancouver and Richmond bearing the brunt of this. For Greater Vancouver in 2015, detached sales made up 41% of the market, townhouses 17% and apartments 42%; in 2016 detached sales made up 37%, townhouses 16% and apartments 47%. In fact, the number of apartments sold in 2016 was 7% higher than in 2015. Overall, sales in Greater Vancouver for 2016 were 40,880 down from a record high of 43,155 in 2015.

 

The Metro Vancouver real estate market on its own started to show a calming of demand midyear coupled with constraints by all levels of government this sped up the process. From concerns over speculation which resulted in deregulation of the Real Estate Council to language restricting assignment of contracts for resale properties in May, an introduction of a 15 percent Foreign Buyers Tax in August, Federal mortgage rule changes in October creating a stress test for buyers with less than 20 percent down payments all the way to the creation of an Empty Home Tax by the City of Vancouver. Throw in a 5% down payment loan announced by the British Columbia government in December and set to start in January 2017, one could argue we’ve seen it all. But that’s just from within our own borders, factors such as Trump, Brexit, a declining Canadian Dollar, continued movement of global capital and immigration were also at play. Some more of an immediate impact, others more of a distraction.

 

There will be as many predictions, forecasts, guesses and hopes for the real estate market in 2017 as there were explanations and excuses for the 2016 market. And after all that we saw lack of supply continue to be a significant factor at the end of the year that it was at the start.

 

Here is my prediction for 2017 Real Estate in Metro Vancouver: Buyers will buy and Sellers will sell. There will be a real estate market. Supply will be restricted, and that won’t change quickly. Given how 2016 finished with declining demand and no rise in supply, its likely supply will be restricted through 2017. And more than anything, supply and demand will direct pricing in the market.

 

Sales and Listings Stats Dec 2016 Houes Townhouses and Condos

 

 Sales and Listings Stats Dec 2016 All Regional

 

 

Here is a summary of the numbers:

 

Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 1,743 – down from 2,255 in November 2016; down from 2,905 in December 2015 and 2,173 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are flat to last year but new listings were down 35% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 129% in December 2016 compared to 140% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 20.9% since January 2016 but down 2.7% over the last 3 months.

 

Vancouver Westside: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 324 – down from 408 in November 2016; down from 512 in December 2015 and 415 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are flat to last year but new listings were down 36% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 140% in December 2016 compared to 141% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 14.3% since January 2016 but down 3.8% over the last 3 months.

 

Vancouver Eastside: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 183 – down from 251 in November 2016; down from 264 in December 2015 and 266 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are up 87% to last year but new listings were down 19% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 117% in December 2016 compared to 138% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 18% since January 2016 but down 3.5% over the last 3 months.

 

North Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 138 – down from 173 in November 2016; down from 210 in December 2015 and 156 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are up 21% compared to last year but new listings were down 49% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Strong Seller’s Market) compared to 1 Month Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 197% in December 2016 compared to 154% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 17% since January 2016 but down 3.8% over the last 3 months.

 

West Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 44 – flat to November 2016 at 44; down from 86 in December 2015 and 66 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are flat to last year but new listings were down 30% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 8 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 4 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 80% in December 2016 compared to 110% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 13.2% since January 2016 but down 10.9% over the last 3 months.

 

Richmond: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 235 – down from 262 in November 2016; down from 424 in December 2015 and 302 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are down 5% to last year and new listings were down 41% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 3 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 104% in December 2016 compared to 110% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 19.2% since January 2016 but down 2.5% over the last 3 months.

 

Burnaby East: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 20 – down from 30 in November 2016; down from 35 in December 2015 and 28 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are up 23% to last year but new listings were down 25% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 4 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 154% in December 2016 compared to 206% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 17.2% since January 2016 but down 2.4% over the last 3 months.

 

Burnaby North: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 85 – down from 121 in November 2016; down from 149 in December 2015 and 122 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are flat to last year but new listings were down 43% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 149% in December 2016 compared to 149% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 22.5% since January 2016 but down 1.0% over the last 3 months.

 

Burnaby South: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 73 – down from 98 in November 2016; down from 203 in December 2015 and 116 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are flat to last year but new listings were down 46% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 5 Months (Balanced to Seller’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 111% in December 2016 compared to 165% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 22.8% since January 2016 but down 0.8% over the last 3 months.

 

New Westminster: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 84 – down from 97 in November 2016; down from 103 in December 2015 and up from 72 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are down 13% to last year but new listings were up slightly compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 2 Months (Strong Seller’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 135% in December 2016 compared to 178% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 21.2% since January 2016 but down 2.0% over the last 3 months.

 

Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 128 – down from 174 in November 2016; down from 243 in December 2015 and 166 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are up 9% to last year but new listings were down 41% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 1 Month Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 152% in December 2016 compared to 147% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 16% since January 2016 but down 4.4% over the last 3 months.

 

Port Moody: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 41 – up from 38 in November 2016; down from 51 in December 2015 and 42 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are up 27% to last year but new listings were down 25% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 141% in December 2016 compared to 131% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 17.8% since January 2016 but down 1.6% over the last 3 months.

 

Port Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 59 – down from 96 in November 2016; down from 98 in December 2015 and 68 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are up 20% to last year but new listings were down 40% year compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 3 Months (Seller’s Market) compared to 1 Month Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 140% in December 2016 compared to 140% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 18.3% since January 2016 but down 3.6% over the last 3 months.

 

Ladner: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 21 – down from 27 in November 2016; down from 22 in December 2015 and 28 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are up 355% (135 from 35) to last year and new listings were the same compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 6 Months (Balanced Market) compared to 2 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 111% in December 2016 compared to 116% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 13% since January 2016 but down 7.3% over the last 3 months.

 

Tsawwassen: Total Units Sold in December 2016 was 15 – down from 30 in November 2016; down from 50 in December 2015 and 27 in December 2014. Total Active Listings are up 280% (143 from 51) to last year but new listings were down 29% compared to December last year, Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is at 10 Months (Buyer’s Market) compared to 1 Months Supply at the end of 2015 and Sales to Listings Ratio was 68% in December 2016 compared to 161% in December 2015. Benchmark Price is up 15.8% since January 2016 but down 6.6% over the last 3 months.

 

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