“Effort only fully releases its reward after a person refuses to quit.”

Napoleon Hill

Election over but the effects will linger in Metro Vancouver

The federal election is over and those who think nothing has changed should prepare themselves for some of the most intrusive legislation ever into the private-sector housing market. It has never been more apparent that this much housing policy is a reaction to headlines and social media. Common sense is trumped by the need to appear to be doing something, anything, to get elected.

For instance, foreign home buyers – already subject in B.C. the highest taxes in the world – are now virtually a non-entity in the Metro Vancouver real estate market, in both the commercial and residential sectors. Yet, at the same time that the federal government wants to increase immigration to 400,000 persons per year, it plans to ban foreign purchases of Canadian homes for two years. This means that someone planning to move to Canada cannot buy and prepare a home for their family’s arrival until they achieve citizenship without paying perhaps a hefty tax. A family will also be penalized if they purchase an apartment for their foreign student in Vancouver. Please come but don’t touch.

Then there is the plan to reduce the cost of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. insurance by 25 per cent while increasing the ceiling on eligible mortgages to $1.25 million, from $1 million.

Hello? This is clearly an inflationary measure, convincing more entry level buyers to purchase while doing nothing to increase affordability.
There is also the planned anti-flipping tax, which is politically palatable but a disincentive to increasing the much-needed supply of affordable strata homes or rentals. This is because land assembly of existing houses or strata windups is often the first step in multi-family development. These properties are, ideally, assembled and then sold within a year to speed the development process. Another layer of tax on homes bought and sold within 12 months will discourage development while adding higher costs to the resulting new strata or rental units.

Port Moody is among the markets that could be hurt. A large new residential development approved for the city’s Coronation Park area – updated in September to now include 2,650 strata units and a rent-to-own program– spurred single-family land assemblies in the area for higher-density homes, such as badly-needed townhouses. In September, only 19 townhouses were added to Port Moody listings, and 14 of them sold. A mere 28 new townhouse units have started construction in Port Moody for all of this year.

Port Moody has a dramatic shortage, but there is a pressing need for middle-market housing right across Greater Vancouver. In September the total active listings for townhouses was less than 1,100 units, down nearly 50 per cent from the same period a year ago. In fact, the total number of residential listings in Greater Vancouver hasn’t been this low in September going back to 1993 and beyond.

So what to do? As always, keep calm and carry on. Responsible people want and need to buy a home for their family’s comfort and financial security and will continue to do so, regardless of the barriers to their destination.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 2021

• Province eases regulations on ALR land

• Land assemblies increase in East Vancouver, suburbs

• Active listings plunge nearly 50% in the Fraser Valley

• West Side, West Vancouver tilting towards a buyer’s advantage

Greater Vancouver market summary: Total residential sales in Greater Vancouver in September were 3,200, down from 3,714 in September of 2020, but slightly higher than the 3,178 sold in August 2021. While not a spectacular month for sales, likely a reflection of the lower selection, September sales were 20% above the 10-year average for this month while the number of new listings was 1% below the 10-year average.

Year over year, condo apartment sales are tracking above September 2020, while detached and townhouse sales are slowing. Compared to September 2020, the number of condo apartment sales this year were up 1%, while townhouse transactions were down 20% and detached homes 27% lower.

It is no coincidence that the sector with the highest supply – condo apartments – is also seeing the highest sales increase. The slowdown in the townhouse and detached-housing markets in September can be traced to a lack of inventory in both sectors.

Overall average residential prices are lower now than at peak prices in April across Greater Vancouver, but there are variations among markets. The average home price in September was $1,174,305, compared to $1,211,233 in April of this year, when sales had hit more than 5,000 transactions for the second straight month.

Fraser Valley market summary: Sales in the Fraser Valley were down 10.6% in September from August, but the total of 1,866 transactions was still the second-highest September in the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s 100-year history. September, however, ended with a total active inventory of 3,812 homes, down 48.3% compared to September 2020, which drove prices higher across the board. Average prices for single-family detached houses were up 31% from a year earlier and 1.8% higher than in August, to $1,491,989. Townhouse average prices were $773,728, up nearly 5% from August and 27.6% above September 2020. The Valley-wide condo price was $493,188, up 15.6% from September 2020 but virtually unchanged (up 0.7%) from August of 2021.

Vancouver Westside: Despite a 4% dip in total sales from August, September’s 567 total transactions were up 6% from a year earlier and the West Side saw a welcome influx of new listings. Total new listings were up 36% from a month earlier and active listings reached 2,554 properties, the vast majority of them condo apartments. The headline news for the trend-setting Westside, however, is that the total supply is now at 5 months, which is tilting it from a seller’s market to a balanced, even hinting at a buyer’s market for the first time in years.

The detached housing market, however, received only 220 new listings in September – up by just 40 from a month earlier – and the average house price settled at $3,573,268, down about $90,000 from both August of this year and September 2021. The sales to listing ratio was 37%, the lowest level since May and the lowest September ratio since 2019. If the active listings and sales of detached houses continue at the same pace, there is a 9-month supply on the market, which signals a buyer’s market. For those aspiring to a detached house on the Westside, this may be the time to take action.

Townhouse prices, at an average of $1,662,908, however, were $270,000 higher than in September 2020 and up $73,000 from August of this year. There were 66 townhouse sales in September from total new listings of 116, creating a sales-to-listing ratio of 57%, compared to 86% a month earlier. The lack of inventory is keeping prices high, resulting in some frustrated buyers retreating from the market.

Westside condominium apartment sales present a different story. With 892 new listings added in September and a total of 1,579 condos now on the market, the average price dipped slightly from August, down about $5,000 to $957,893 for the 416 sales in September. Condo sales were down slightly from August, and September’s sales-to-listing ratio of 47% was well off the monthly pace this year and indicative of the cooling market we are seeing this autumn across most of Greater Vancouver. Perhaps that’s why CMHC’s risk report put Vancouver at low compared to high in Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Halifax and Moncton.

Vancouver East. Regular readers will know my belief that Vancouver East is the current and housing market of the future in Greater Vancouver. September emphasized that confidence. Sales in the month surged 25% from August and new listings were up 47%. The result was a great selection and a sales-to-listing ratio of 58%. There is a 3-month supply of inventory in East Vancouver as this strong seller’s market continues.

Vancouver East detached houses, I believe, present good value. The average detached house price in September was $1,846,657. This is lower than the North Shore, Richmond and most of Burnaby, and a startling $1.6 million less than in neighbouring West Side. But none of these markets have the new St. Paul’s hospital underway, the rapidly-growing tech sector or the coming SkyTrain twin-subway extension seen in East Vancouver. Take a drive through Mount Pleasant or visit the 450-acre False Creek Flats north of Great Northern Way to see where Vancouver’s future is heading. East Vancouver detached house owners should be aware that land assemblies will become a major factor in this market over the next few years, if not months.

East Vancouver had 187 townhouses for sale in September, the highest inventory seen in most Greater Vancouver markets. September townhouse sales, at 75, were up 92% from August and the average sale price of $1,258,332 was the highest level this year, and $120,000 above September 2020. The sales-to-new-listing ratio held steady at 53%, close to the average since May of this year.

Condo apartment sales in East Vancouver, at 115 in September, were up from 97 in August but lower than the monthly average this year. With 224 new listings, the sales ratio was 51%, the lowest since January. Despite this, the average condo price reached $808,000, up $34,000 from August and $100,000 higher than a year earlier.

North Vancouver: Total housing sales were up 9% in September from a month earlier, to 230 homes, which was 30% higher than in September 2020. Active listings were up from August, with a 70% surge in new listings to a total of 507 homes for sale at the end of September. With a mere 2-month supply, North Vancouver is very much a seller’s market.

Detached houses sales, at 70, were the highest in three months and the average detached house price in September was $2,227,213,the highest level this year and up a startling $435,000 from September 2020. The sales ratio for detached houses was 53% with 144 new listings added to the market in the month.

City-centre detached owners should watch for land assembly action that has started near the massive civic redevelopment planned for the Harry Jerome community centre in Central Lonsdale. The new complex won’t complete until 2025. The city does not allow higher-density zoning in the area today, but some developers are assembling lots in anticipation of future potential such as townhouse zoning.

North Vancouver townhouse listings added just 46 units to the market in September and new listings have not reached 50 townhouses a month since May. Sales in September, at 35, resulted in a 76% sales ratio. The average North Vancouver townhouse sold for $1,332,543, up $195,000 from September 2020, reflecting the high demand and low inventory.

Condominium apartment sales dominated the September market, with 115 sales, but the sales-to-new-listing ratio dropped to 51%, the lowest level this year. The average condo price is now $808,207, up more than $100,000 from a year ago.

West Vancouver: One of the most prestigious markets in Canada is moving towards a buyer’s market with an 8-month supply of homes on the market, but buyers still pay premium prices. The average sale price of the 41 detached houses sold in September was $3,536,476. This price is up 13% from a year ago, but below the monthly average this year. With a total of 440 detached houses for sale, there is healthy selection and buyers can take advantage. There were only 11 new listings for townhouses in September and 10 of them sold at a benchmark price of $1,292,000. There were 20 condo apartment sales, unchanged from August, at a benchmark of $1,162,000, up 5.5% from a month earlier.

Richmond: Richmond housing sales and listings were down in September, rather dramatically, with sales dropping 32% compared to a year earlier and total active listings down nearly 50% year-over-year to just 320 properties, yet strata prices are soaring. September townhouse prices broke the $1 million average-price barrier for the first time in Richmond as 90% of the 107 new listings sold. Richmond has only a 2-month supply of townhouses in a white-hot seller’s market.

Condo sales led Richmond’s September action, with 230 transactions and 584 active listings, with average condo prices up nearly $100,00 from a month earlier at $641,218.

Detached houses posted 106 sales from 184 new listings in September, and the average price was down slightly from August, at $1,935,761.
There is a buzz in Richmond due the easing of rules regarding the Agriculture Land Reserve (ALR). The province recently ruled that smaller farms (100 acres or less) can add a secondary residence, if approved by the local municipality. Richmond has many small ALR parcels, many less than an acre, and the ruling may increase their attraction to buyers. The changes, which come in December 31, 2021, represent a slight opening in restrictions that have limited residential use on about 150,000 acres of ALR land in Metro Vancouver for 45 years.

Ladner: Forget for a moment that a gigantic 8-lane replacement for the Massey Tunnel is coming to its doorstep or that the City of Ladner launched a program in September that is unapologetic about aiming to attract higher-density residential development. Instead, think of living in an historic riverside community with startling real estate potential. A lot of people have: 84% of the new listings in Ladner sold in September – a sales ratio that has held steady for months – and total sales were up 9% from August, to 38 transactions. Detached houses sold in September at a benchmark in the $1.3 million range, but Ladner has been posting among the highest month-over-month price increases over the past six months. Something is stirring in sunny Ladner.

Tsawwassen: Ladner’s neighbouring Tsawwassen saw total sales dip 23% in September from a month earlier and its sales-to-new-listing ratio is also more subdued 78%, down from 112% in August. Active listings have plunged, with 133 this September compared to 308 at the same time last year. Detached-house prices are benchmarked at $1,409,800, 7% from six months ago but unchanged (up 0.3%) from August 2021. Tsawwassen townhouses are in high demand, even at the current benchmark price of $856,000.

Burnaby East: Total housing sales reached 38 units, not much changed from a month or a year earlier. Total active listings also held steady, though low, at 83 per month for two months straight. Townhouses supplied the drama in September as the sales-to-new-listing ratio hit 131% due to a mere 13 new listings compared to 17 sales. The average townhouse price shot up to record high of $1,006,000 as a result. The overall sales-to-new-listing ratio for all homes is 78%, as the housing shortage becomes apparent in this seller’s market.

Burnaby North: This market has seen a lot of new housing starts over the past three years, but most have been condos, not townhouses, which remain in high demand. In September, 31of the 36 new listings for townhouses sold and a lack of inventory is all that is keeping sales in check. Multiple offers are still common here, as the average townhouse price jumped $50,000 in a single month to $956,712 in September. The detached-housing action was more subdued with a 62% sales-to-new-listing ratio, and the 32 detached sales seeing an average price of $1,782,633, the lowest monthly level since January 2021. The condo apartment market posted 125 sales, highest in four months, at an average price of $681,673, with a sales-success ratio of 66%.

Burnaby South: Home prices in Burnaby South have barely budged in three months and sales, while historically high, where down 8% in September from August. The composite benchmark home prices is just over $1 million as it has been since the early summer. The overall housing inventory is steady at a 3-month’s supply and the sales-to-listing ratio is also solid at 64 per cent in September. This is a seller’s market, and a stable one.

New Westminster: The Royal City was one of the hottest markets earlier this year, but the pace slowed in September, with overall housing sales down 10% in as compared to August and new listings up 42% in the same period, resulting in a 52% sales-to-listing ratio, which is about as balanced as it gets. In August, the same ratio was 80%. An opportunity could be opening in the New Westminster detached housing market, with the sales ratio down to 35% in September, the lowest since mid-2020, and the average price tracking down to $1,333,614. There is a six-month supply of detached houses on the market – 81 houses – which is trending towards a buyer’s advantage.

Coquitlam: Coquitlam saw total sales dip 13% in September, to 247, compared to a month earlier and were 19% lower than in the same month last year, while the supply of homes is increasing. There are 577 total active listings, up from 551 in August, though they are down about 40% from a year ago. The condo sector posted a 76% sales-to-new-listing ratio to lead the market, with 133 sales at an average price of $634,777, the highest level of any month this year. Townhouse sales dipped to 37 units, down from a three-month average of 48, but 74% of the new listings sold at an average price of $955,854. September saw 74 detached-house sales, the lowest level this year, and average price, at $1,599,752, has been fairly constant since the start of the year.

Port Moody: Port Moody has been flirting with a housing boom for three years, with plenty of plans for new development but a lack of actual construction. That could change over the next few months and the supply would be welcomed. There were only 158 active listings in September and that included only 14 new listings for townhomes and just 50 condo apartments available for sale. The sale-to-listing ratio is in the 75% range for both strata sectors. The planned new developments, including the 2,500 homes planned for the Coronation Park area, has increased interest in single-family lot assemblies. The average detached-house price in September was $1,736,346 and 80% of the 30 new listings sold.

Port Coquitlam: Good, stable Port Coquitlam saw a total of 97 home transactions in September, unchanged from August 2021 and up 15% from the same month a year ago. New listings increased 25% from a month earlier and the sales-to-listing ratio was a steady 64%, meaning a seller’s market. More detached house listings are needed, because all 34 new listings in September sold. Unlike many markets, more detached houses sell in Port Coquitlam each month than townhouses or condos. Note to first-time buyers, though: the average price for a Port Coquitlam condo is now $495,000, among the lowest in Greater Vancouver.

Pitt Meadows: Pitt Meadows is a small housing market and it is among the tightest for supply in Metro Vancouver. The total inventory of homes for sale is down to a 1-month supply as sales leaped 71% in September from a month earlier. There are only 47 active listings, compared to 100 at this time last year. Detached house prices are 6% higher than six months ago, at an average of $1,212,000, and average townhouse prices have risen 12.2% in the same period to $759,000. The overall sales-to-listing ratio is a stunning 93%. If you want to buy in Pitt Meadows, better hurry before all the listings have disappeared.

Maple Ridge: Maple Ridge has been attracting many buyers from Vancouver and the inner suburbs this year due to its lower prices and increasingly sophisticated new strata housing. In September, buyers were purchasing detached houses for a benchmark of $1.2 million and condo apartments for $441,000, the lowest prices in any Metro market north of the Fraser River, save for neighbouring Pitt Meadows. There is only a 2-month supply of total residential listings and sales to listings ratio in September was 84%, an indication that Maple Ridge could see a continual elevation in home prices.

Surrey: Anyone fortunate enough to take a tour from South Surrey’s Crescent Beach to Central Surrey’s high-rise downtown would have to admit this city on pace to surpass Vancouver as the biggest metropolis in B.C. About 1,000 new business open every year in Surrey and 1,000 people move in every month. In September, 308 detached houses sold in Surrey at an average price of $1,606,000, a price up 28.6% from a year earlier and 2.7% higher than in August 2021. But Surrey is suffering from a lack of listings, with detached listings down as much as 50% and active listings for townhouses down 64% in north Surrey and 40% in South Surrey-White Rock from a year ago. Even condo listings have fallen up to 40% in key markets like Central Surrey and North Surrey, though condo prices remain relatively affordable across Surrey at an average of $485,000 in September. But if even forward-looking Surrey is facing a shortage of housing, you know something must be done to increase the supply across Metro Vancouver, or we will all be facing much higher prices in the near future.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“Between saying and doing, many a pair of shoes is worn out.”

Iris Murdoch

Townhouse sector exposes razor-thin housing supply

We are in the heat of a hastily-called federal election and housing is the central platform of the major parties, all of which say they will make housing more affordable for the so-called ‘missing middle’, us common folk who may simply need to buy a townhouse.

Yet the Lower Mainland’s townhouse market exposes the razor-thin housing supply that is the true barrier to more affordable and accessible housing. Townhouses are hugely popular, providing indoor and outdoor space and ground level living at a price that is generally half that of detached house in the same community. With the right planning, zoning and development permit streamlining, they are simpler and faster to build than high-rise condo towers and provide four to six times the density of a detached house. Yet, out of a total of 216 new listings in August across North Vancouver, Coquitlam, Richmond and South Delta combined, only four townhouses remained unsold at month’s end.

In Port Moody, where 217 townhouses have sold since January, only 9 townhouses were added to the market in August: and 8 of them sold. And, in the Fraser Valley in August, 94 out of every 100 townhouse listings were snapped up by month’s end. The result is not surprising: the average townhouse price has increased by $165,555 in the past year alone across the Lower Mainland. Townhouses are the homes the missing middle are looking for, yet the federal election promises are almost totally focused on building subsidized rental apartments. The supply is shallow across the entire Metro housing market. The total number of new listings in August were at levels last seen in 2018-19, two of the slowest years in real estate since the turn of the century.

With 3,166 properties sold across Greater Vancouver in August, new listings were in a freefall, dropping to 4,099 homes. After declining for months, total active listings at the end of the month were just 9,243 units. This compares with more than 13,500 in August of 2020 and more than 10,300 active listings in July 2021. Without a significant increase in listings in September, pressure will again be on prices this fall as buyer activity picks up from the summer break. While some pulled back from real estate activities this month, the lack of properties available likely limited activity of buyers as they waited in anticipation of new listings that never came in August. And like Charlie Brown waiting to kick the football, will it get pulled away again in September if sellers still hold back from listing?

Repeated attempts to stifle housing demand in Greater Vancouver have failed simply because people desire the freedom and financial gains that homeownership provides.
After suffering under the speculation tax, the foreign-home buyer tax, the vacant homes tax, the property transfer tax, rising development fees and community amenity costs, the current federal government now plans to add an anti-flipping tax that will chip away at home equity and punish flexibility. Metro Vancouver home buyers are the most resilient in the country, as shown in August which posted the sixth highest for any August on record.

All that is needed to regain balance in this market is increased supply.

Evidences is seen in the current condominium market. August condo sales were far above the detached and townhouse markets. And a key reason is supply and selection. In August there were more new listings – 2,158 – for condos than for detached houses and townhouses combined. As well, there are about 38,000 new condos under construction across Metro Vancouver, compared to just 3,150 new townhouses and about 2,000 detached houses.

Condo sales in August were up 22% year over year, while townhouse sales were down 7% and detached homes off by 14%. But here is the clincher: despite the soaring sales, a healthy supply has kept condo prices relatively in check: the average Lower Mainland condo apartment has increased in value by 6.9% in the past year (to $729,700), compared to 12.6% for detached houses (to $1,615,000) and 13.1% for townhouses (to $849,900), both of which are seeing a significant shortage. Supply is the answer. The rest is rhetoric. Remember this at the voting booth on September 20.

August Housing Market Highlights

Biggest year-over-year detached house price increase: Westside Vancouver, up $422,000.
Deepest month-over-month sales drop: Pitt Meadows, down 38%
Lowest number of new townhouse starts in 2021: North Vancouver City, Zero.
Biggest month-over-month detached house price decrease: Port Moody, down 0.4%
Biggest month-over-month new listings increase: Port Coquitlam, up 6%

Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver August 2021

Greater Vancouver: Total housing sales in August were 3,166 – down from 3,375 (-6%) in July 2021, but up 1% from August 2020. Condominiums accounted for most of the sales, caused partially by the lack of option. With a lack of townhouses, condominium apartments capture demand from all parts of the market – investors, first- time buyers, downsizers and buyers moving from one condo to another. Total active residential listings were at 9,494 at month end compared to 13,511 at that time last year and 10,367 at the end of July; new listings in August were down 9% compared to July 2021, and down 31% compared to August 2020. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and the August sales- to-listings ratio of 77% compared to 75% in July 2021 and 52% in August 2020.

Fraser Valley: Total residential transactions in the Fraser Valley in August were 2,087, the strongest August performance since 2005. But the inventory of homes for sale has dropped to 1980 levels. In August, only 2,107 new listings were added, down 37% from a year earlier and the lowest monthly level this year. August ended with total active inventory sitting at 4,077, a 16.8% decrease compared to July 2021, and 45% fewer than in August 2020.

Vancouver Westside: Westside detached house sales saw a decline in sales, month over month, while townhome and apartment sales were the highest since May. Price was likely a factor. The benchmark detached house price in August was $3,462,000, up 12.2% – that is $422,000 – from a year earlier, though unchanged from July 2021. (As an aside on Westside house appreciation: In 1960 Vancouver retailer Sonny Wosk paid $121,500 for a ‘mansion’ on South Granville. It was listed this week for $19.8 million.) Total Westside housing sales in August were 593, up 4% from a month earlier and 21% higher than in August 2020. Active Listings were at 2,389 at month end compared to 2,671 at that time last year and 2,558 at the end of July 2021. New listings in August were down 1% compared to July 2021 and down 24% compared to August 2020. Condos dominated the Westside market, accounting for 443 of the 597 sales and 70% of the total new listings. The total sales-to-listing ratio was 65%, up from 61% in July and far ahead of the 41% in August of last year.

Vancouver East Side: August sales reached 295 homes, down from 360 (-18%) in July 2021, down from 330 (-11%) in August 2020. Even at a benchmark price of $1,689,700, East Side detached sales in August were the second highest of any Greater Vancouver submarket, with 105 transactions. The East Side condominium market, which saw 155 sales in August, offers comparative value with a benchmark price of $629,500, about $100,000 less than the Lower Mainland average. Condo investors are quite active in this market as construction of the SkyTrain Broadway and Millennial Line extensions become visible and work starts on the massive $2.1 billion new St. Paul’s hospital campus.

Active listings were at 1,090 at month end compared to 1,319 at that time last year and 1,191 at the end of July; New Listings in August were down 12% compared to July 2021 and 42% lower than in August 2020. The supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply and the sales to listings ratio of 69% compares to 74% in July 2021 and 45% in August of last year. This remains a solid seller’s market.

North Vancouver: North Vancouver is suffering a startling lack of inventory. Only 439 homes were added in August, down nearly 50% from August of 2020 and below the 512 new listings in July of this year. North Vancouver continues to be inventory starved and with little new strata development, this will be an issue in the years to come. Not a single new townhouse has started construction this year in North Vancouver City and just 17 have started in North Vancouver District, as examples of the looming shortage. Total August sales were lower, at 212 transactions, down 16% from a month earlier and down 15% from the same month a year earlier. The supply shortage is reflected in prices: detached houses benchmarked at $1,865,800 in August and townhouse prices reached $1,140,100, third highest in Metro Vancouver and up about $114,000 from just six months ago. There were 99 condo apartment sales in August, at a benchmark price of $649,600. With the total sales-to-listing ratio running at 86%, North Vancouver has a mere 2 month supply of housing at the current sales pace. I would advise any owners considering a sale to list now into a seller’s market on steroids.

West Vancouver: New condominiums in Ambleside – the first in years in the waterfront community – are being listed north of $6 million to give an idea of the rarified market in West Vancouver. The city saw total sales fall in August to 67 transactions, down 21% from a month earlier but exactly the same as in August of last year. At a benchmark of $3,088,900, detached sales led the market, accounting for 43 of the transactions. Active Listings were at 536 at month end compared to 667 at that time last year and 572 at the end of July; New Listings in August were down 18% compared to July 2021 and down 33% compared to August 2020. With 52% of new listings selling, West Vancouver is considered a rare balanced market in Metro Vancouver.

Richmond: Richmond is seeing a spike in the supply of new homes this year, with starts rising 158% in the second quarter, to 294 units, compared with the same period in 2020. They will be needed. Richmond total housing sales in August were 3% higher than a month earlier and 29% above the pace in August 2020. New listings, however, dropped 12% from July 2021 and 20% below the same month a year ago. Due partially to a rezoning move three years, which encouraged townhouse construction along major roadways, Richmond had the highest new listings for townhouses of any Metro Vancouver market in August, with 107. But with a 99% sales-to-listing ratio, there was only one townhouse still available at month’s end from what came on. The benchmark price of a Richmond townhouse is now $938,400. Detached houses now sell at a benchmark of $1,9120,400, up 10.1% from six months earlier. Richmond’s inventory of total residential listings is down to a 3 month’s supply, with a sales-to-listings ratio of 82% in August.

Ladner: Like all of South Delta, Ladner should be getting ready for a new 8-lane, $4.15 billion traffic tunnel expected to be built by 2030, replacing the current George Massey crossing. The Massey Tunnel replacement has been debated for years, but the province appears confident this time. Whenever it is opened, it will change Ladner home values forever. Ladner, where the benchmark detached house price in August was $1,287,300, saw a total of 35 residential sales, down 6% from a month earlier. With a sales-to-listing ratio of 77%, active listings were up 9% from July and there is an estimated 3 month supply of inventory.

Tsawwassen: This South Delta community bucked the Metro sales trends in August as sales rose 28% from July, to 74 transactions. It fit the listing pattern, however, as active listings dropped to 142 homes, down from 168 in July and about 60% below August 2020. The result is a screaming seller’s market, with the sales-to-listing ratio at 112% in August – highest in Metro Vancouver. Tsawwassen has posted a 3.1% composite home price increase over the last three months, also the strongest in the Metro region. This should be a strong September market- if buyers can find anything left to buy.

Burnaby East: This more affordable market – the composite benchmark home price is $1,018,300, the lowest in Burnaby – saw total sales drop 37% in August from a month earlier, to just 29 transactions. Active listings were 83 at month end, unchanged from July; New listings were down 11% compared to July 2021 and 20% lower compared to August 2020. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 3 month’s as the sales-to-listings ratio dipped to 57% compared to 81% in July 2021. This is a seller’s market that is tilting towards balance.

Burnaby North: As if North Burnaby didn’t have enough going for it, a new $127 million community centre has just been announced for its Confederation Park, which already has three large community complexes. The new centre will address the rapid growth in the market, which also includes the massive Brentwood development. Total housing sales in August were down 8% from July 2021 and when compared to August of last year. Active Listings were at 467 at month end compared to 591 at that time last year and 497 at the end of July. New listings in August were down 12% compared to July 2021, and down 31% compared to August 2020. The current sales to listings ratio of 76% reflects the ongoing seller’s market.

Burnaby South: Burnaby South has the highest detached house prices in the municipality, at a benchmark of $1,788,100 in August, but it also has the most stable sales. Total August transactions, at 199 homes, were down just 1% from July and 53% higher than in August 2020. With new listings increasing 4% from July, the August sales-to-listing ratio was 71%, down slightly from the 75% pace in July, but still indicative of a seller’s advantage.

New Westminster: That rumbling noise from the Royal City waterfront in September will be from 429 cement trucks feeding the largest continuous concrete pour in the Metro region this year, for a 53-storey condo high-rise rising from the Quay. Condos are big news in New West. In August 103 condo apartments sold, dwarfing the 23 sales of townhouses and 21 detached house transactions. While total sales were down 10% from July, this remains a clear seller’s market. Condo transactions represented an 81% sales-to-listing ratio and 91% of new listings for detached houses sold during the month, at a benchmark price of $1,328.500. This compares to condo prices at $567,100 and townhouse benchmarks at $845,500. The current supply of total residential listings is steady at a 2 month’s supply.

Coquitlam: While Coquitlam Town Centre continues to emerge, Burquitlam’s master planned neighbourhood, also linked to SkyTrain, is coming to life big time. In the works are a new $77 million YMCA fitness and health centre, 31 and 50-storey condo towers, a new park and a new police station, plus a retail village, with much of it completed within two years. With an overall sales-to-listing ratio of 93% in August, Coquitlam is also a very strong housing market. The composite home prices is $1,093,400, virtually unchanged for three months, as are sales which were up 3% from July to 293 transactions, even as new listings were down 11% in the same period.

Port Moody: The small waterfront suburban city has had development challenges in the past, but has just received $403,000 in funding from the Union of B.C. Municipalities, money that is meant to streamline the development process. The PoMo market is tight, with a drop in total new listings – just 76 in August – and a sales-to-listing ratio of 73% that spiked to 100% for townhouse listings. This is a seller’s market and anything to help increase supply would likely be appreciated by buyers.

Port Coquitlam: Port Coquitlam is the affordable destination in the Tri-Cities, the only market where the composite benchmark is under $1 million, at $924,300 in August. One can buy condo apartments at a benchmark of $523,300, even less. Total sales in August were down 6% from a month earlier, at 103 transactions, but new listings were up 6%, which is rare in Metro Vancouver. The August sales-to-listing ratio was a robust 84% and hit 94% in July, indicating a seller’s market where the inventory is moving quite quickly.

Pitt Meadows: With a composite home benchmark price of $924,300 in August, Pitt Meadows was automatically on the radar for family buyers. Condos priced at a benchmark of $544,300, a value that has held steady for three months, continue to attract first-time buyers and investors. Sales have slowed, though, with August transactions down 38% from July, though listings were up modestly from a month earlier at 49. The August sales-to-listing ratio dropped to 64%, compared to a stunning 108% in July.

Maple Ridge: Active listings in August plunged more than 50% from a year ago, down to 318 homes, and new listings were off 7% compared to last month. But new supply is coming, with 174 new townhouses and 383 new condo apartments under construction. Sales remain strong, down a mere 2% from July in August to 185 transactions. With a composite home price of just over $1 million, Maple Ridge edge as an affordable market is being challenged, but the benchmark price for townhouses is $686,900, lowest in Greater Vancouver, and these prices have held stable, up just 1.3% over the past three months. With the sales-to-listing ratio at 84% in August, the new housing supply will be welcomed.

Surrey: The second-biggest B.C city saw total detached house sales rise 4.3% in August compared to July 21, but were down 11.8% from August 2020. The average detached house in Surrey sold for $1,564,060, which is nudging closer to the Greater Vancouver benchmark. Townhouse posted 301 sales in August at an average price of $715,500, up 22% from a year earlier. The lowest strata prices are in North Surrey, where townhouse benchmark at $607,500 and typical condo apartments traded at $427,500 in August.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“Believe you can and you’re halfway there.“

Theodore Roosevelt

Reality of housing shortage exposed in July

Sometimes you just have to shake your head at the reports we read about the Greater Vancouver housing market. Such as quotes from regional politicians about how much they care about making homes more affordable while continuing to restrict supply. The latest knee-slapper is the supposedly surprising news that Greater Vancouver homeowners are far more likely to own multiple homes than anywhere else in the country, despite Vancouver being among the world’s most expensive cities for housing.

The reality, of course, is that Vancouver’s consistently elevated prices are the very reason some people want to own as many homes as possible.

What should be surprising is that more Vancouver homeowners don’t do the same thing, especially today with both mortgage lending rates and housing supply at incredibly low levels.

In Greater Vancouver the average value of a home—a composite of detached houses, condo apartments and townhouses—has increased by $351,000 in the past five years. Since July 2020, the average detached house price in Greater Vancouver has risen by $312,000, in a region where the average annual household income is $100,600.

In the past six months, the typical Greater Vancouver home has increased in value by 13%, while the annual interest rate on mortgage is less than 3%. Homeowners can do the math. Leveraging the existing equity in a home to buy another property makes sound economic sense. Many see it as only proven way to protect a family from the ravages of inflation. It shouldn’t be surprising.

In July, however, Greater Vancouver buyers of all types faced a dilemma: the number of new listings fell to the lowest level of any month this year, down 26.4% from a year earlier and 25.2% below the level in June 2021. Fraser Valley listings hit a 40-year low. It is normal in July for both sellers and buyers to take a summer breather, especially this year following record-breaking sale and price increases. July sales were down for the fourth straight month in a market distracted by great summer weather and the lifting of most COVID-19 restrictions. The concern, though, is whether there will be enough listings to meet the inevitable uptick in demand as the summer wanes.

The gap between listings and sales is tightening. In July only 4,377 new listings of all types of homes were added to the market, but sales totaled 3,372 transactions. Total active listings across Greater Vancouver are 12.2% lower than the 10-year average for July, while sales are 13% higher.

The result is that the July sales-to-active-listing ratio was 33.3% and this tightened to 37.3% for condominium apartments and 47.7% for townhouses, the most in-demand housing sector across the Lower Mainland. The benchmark townhouse price is now $949,900, up 16% – nearly $152,000 from the same month last year, a compelling reason for investors to buy another townhouse.

The problem is finding one. Aside from the lack of listings, there are only 1,149 new townhouses under construction in all of Greater Vancouver. In the City of Vancouver just 58 new townhouses have started this year. The townhouse shortage is acute in many markets where sales outstripped supply in July, including South Delta, Maple Ridge, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody and Whistler-Pemberton. In Port Moody, for instance, there were only 17 new listings for townhouses but 47 sales in the month, exhausting the total inventory of active listings. Many other markets, such as Coquitlam where July townhouse sales accounted for 95% of listings, are close to near-zero inventory.

Balance in our real estate market will never be achieved without some serious consideration on increasing the supply long term.

Townhouse market snapshot for July 2021

Townhouse active listings, Greater Vancouver: 689
Townhouse active listings, Surrey: 1,156
Lowest price townhouse, Maple Ridge: $668,000
Highest townhouse sales-to-listing ratio: Port Moody at 276%.
Total townhouses under construction, City of Vancouver: 95
Total townhouses under construction, City of Surrey: 1,139

Greater Vancouver: We suspect the seasonal sales slowdown in July was aggravated by buyers waiting for new listings that never arrived. Still, with 3,375 transactions, this was the sixth-highest July for sales in history, combined with the lowest number of new listings for a July in 11 years.

The July benchmark price for a Greater Vancouver detached house was $1,801,000, compared to $736,900 for a condo apartment. This helps explain why condominium apartment sales posted the largest year-over-year increase in July, rising 19%, while detached house sales were down 6% and townhouse sales, largely due to a lack of listings, were unchanged from July 2020. Condominiums accounted for 49% of all sales in July, but both new and active listings for condo apartments were down 21% from a year earlier. This compares with a 7% decline in total detached house listings and a 34% fewer listings for townhouses when compared with a year earlier.

As we roll into August and the traditionally high sales seen in September, the shortage of homes for sale, particularly in the strata sector, will be the headline news. Active listings have been falling month-over-month since May. If you are a homeowner and have considered listing, now may be the best time this year to come to a market that is packed with eager and frustrated buyers.

Fraser Valley: The inventory of active listings in the Fraser Valley fell to the lowest level in July in 40 years, after total active listings fell to 4,901, down 33% from July 2020 and 10.5% lower than in June 2021. Total sales also slowed, down 11% from June 2021 to 2,006, but were still 15% above the 10-year average for the month. A bright spot is the large inventory of townhouses on the Fraser Valley market, when compared with Greater Vancouver.

Vancouver Westside: The benchmark price of a detached house on Vancouver’s Westside in July reached $3,466,200, virtually unchanged ( up 0.2%) from a month earlier but 17.6% higher than in July 2020. With 93 sales in July, detached sales on the Westside this year total 766 houses, up from 444 in the first seven months of 2020. Condo apartment sales dominated July on the Westside with 419 transactions, at a benchmark price of $829,300. Townhouse sales dipped to 57 in July, down from 74 in June, as a lack of new listings – just 87 – kept some buyers sidelined. In all, the Westside sales to listing ratio in July was at 62%, a strong seller’s environment in Greater Vancouver’s most expensive market.

Vancouver East Side: As we have been noted for some months, Vancouver’s East Side story is one of rising sales of detached houses, easily eclipsing the more expensive Westside. In July, 144 detached houses sold in the East at a benchmark price of $1,688,500, a price nearly 50% lower than the 93 houses sold west of Quebec Street. Investors are very active right across the East Side, especially in the condominium market, spurred on by the visual start of the Broadway Corridor SkyTrain extension and settling down of price increases, which has seen condo prices hold steady for three months at $632,300. Townhouse sales, at 57, were the same on both the East Side and Westside in July, butt the East Side price was about $210,000 lower at a benchmark of $1,165,000. The supply of total East Side residential listings is steady at three months and the sales- to-listings ratio in July is a high 74%, signalling a continued seller’s market.

North Vancouver: North Vancouver District leaders were voted in two years ago with pledge to slow residential development. In July, after a year-long review, the District now says it wants to increase the supply, but to prioritize “rental, social, and supportive housing projects.” Bottom line is little will be done to address the acute shortage of market housing. In June, latest monthly data available, only 17 new homes had started in all of North Vancouver and there were no townhouse starts at all. The lack of supply has led to the second-highest suburban home prices in Metro Vancouver, at a composite benchmark of $1,226,000. July total housing sales across North Vancouver, at 252, were down 22% from June, one of the biggest drops in the region and off 6% from July 2020. Active listings plunged to 512 in July, down from 620 in June. The month’s supply of total residential listings is a tight two-months, and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 84% keeps North Vancouver among the strongest seller’s market in the province.

West Vancouver: Perhaps the most prestigious housing enclave in Canada, with a July benchmark house price of $3,121,800, West Vancouver detached house sales dipped to 54 transactions in July, down from 60 a month earlier but unchanged compared to July 2020. A total of 21 condos sold in July at a benchmark of $995,000. Active listings were at 572 in June, compared to 618 at the end of June. New listings were down 25% from June 202 and 20% below July 2020. West Vancouver is a relatively balanced on high-priced perch, with about a seven-month supply and a sales-to-listing ratio in July at 53%, up from 42% a month earlier.

Richmond: Total housing sales and new listings both dropped sharply in July, down, respectively, 11% and 15% from a month earlier. The big drop was seen in detached house transactions, which fell to 94, down 61% from June, even as the benchmark house price held steady at $1,910,000. Condo sales were among the highest in the Metro region, with 236 apartments selling at median price of $620,000. Richmond had the highest number of new listings for townhouses, with 124, but 79% of these sold in July, pushing the benchmark townhouse price up a further 1% from a month earlier to $932,600. Richmond’s supply of total residential listings is up to a four-month’s supply, if the current sales trend continues.

Burnaby East: The smallest of the three Burnaby markets profiled, Burnaby East posted 46 total housing sales in July, down 6% from June but 32.4% higher than in July 2020. Active listings, though, dropped to just 83, down from 104 in June 2021. Benchmark detached house prices, at $1,431,000, and condo apartment prices, at $728,000, were virtually unchanged from a month earlier. The overall sales-to-listing ratio is 89%, indicating a strong seller’s market.

Burnaby North: Tunnels are being bored through Burnaby Mountain this summer for an oil pipeline that will link Burnaby’s tidewater to the Alberta oil fields. The action has apparently helped fuel demand for detached houses, as prices have increased 18.2% in the past year, the biggest increase in Burnaby, to $1,746,800. A large supply of new condo apartments completed in the Brentwood area likely affected benchmark condo prices, which were virtually unchanged in July from a month earlier, at $716,600. The overall sales-to-listing ratio of 73%, however, points to higher home prices in this seller’s market.

Burnaby South: A total of 202 residential properties sold in July, down 7% from a month earlier, but new listings dropped month-over-month by 24%, setting up a very tight 73% sales-to-listing ratio. As of the of July there were only 585 total active listings, enough to last just three months at the current sales pace. The composite benchmark detached house price in July was $1,774,500, highest in Burnaby, and up 1.1% from a month earlier.

New Westminster: Stability characterized the ‘Royal City ’in July as housing sales and prices were a near mirror image of June. Detached house sales, at 26, were identical, townhouse sales were up by one in July to 20, and apartment sales increased by 5 transactions to 113 in July.

The composite home price in July was also nearly unchanged, rising 0.9% to $721,300. The big difference was in new listings, which dropped to 20% month over month, with total active listings down 26% to 347 in July. With an overall sales-to-listing ratio of 86%, up from 61% in June, New Westminster remained a very active seller’s market this July.

Coquitlam: There are 3,060 new homes under construction right now in Coquitlam, including 231 townhouses and 2,652 apartments, most of which are condominiums. This is encouraging because active listings for resale homes are falling, dropping to 645 in July, down from 745 a month earlier. New listings fell 20% month-over-month. Sales also slowed, down 11% from June to a total of 292 in July, but benchmark prices stayed virtually unchanged, with detached house values at $1,505,400; townhouse prices up 0.5% to $847,500; and condo apartment prices rock steady from a month earlier at $588,900. The detached house sales success ratio is 105%, however, with townhouses seeing an 89% sales-to-listing ratio and 76% of condo listings selling in July, the stage is set for price appreciation if more listings don’t arrive soon.

Port Moody: The townhouse shortage is very apparent in Port Moody, where the sales-to-listing ratio in July was a startling 276%. There were just 17 new listings for townhouses in the month but there were 47 sales, meaning the inventory of total listings is disappearing quickly. I suspect there have been multiple offers as the benchmark townhouse price was up a further 1.2% in July from a month earlier, at $761,000. Sales of detached houses were also strong, with a 91% sales-to-listing ratio and benchmark prices unchanged up 0.7% from a month earlier, at $1.863,800, highest in the Tri-Cities.

Port Coquitlam: First-time buyers and investors are likely taking a close look at Port Coquitlam. The most affordable housing market in the Tri-Cities, PoCo is close enough to SkyTrain to make it accessible for commuters. The benchmark condo price, at $528,900 in July, was unchanged from June and is about $210,000 lower than the Greater Vancouver average. Total home sales in July were down 26% from June and 13% lower than in July 2020, at 103 transactions. This is a sleeper market that is awakening, reflected in the 94% sales-to-listing ratio in July.

Pitt Meadows: Perhaps it was the summer distraction in the lake-endowed community, but Pitt Meadows saw both sellers and buyers taking a break in July. New listings dropped 40% from a month earlier and sales fell 11% to just 39 transactions. The benchmark price for a detached house dipped just 0.8% month-to-month, to $1,193,800, with townhouse prices and condo apartment prices also virtually unchanged at $753,200 and $543,500, respectively. As of June there were only 33 new townhouses and no new condo apartments under construction in Pitt Meadows. A startling 106% sales-to-listing ratio in July is a signal that Pitt Meadow prices may rise if supply falls any further.

Maple Ridge: There are 157 townhouses under construction in Maple Ridge, including the 44 that started this year. Many of these new units are likely selling out, however, as the sales-to-listing ratio for resale townhouses topped 100% in July. Townhouse benchmark prices were $688,800 in July and condo apartments at $425,900, both among the lowest in Greater Vancouver. Detached house prices, at $1,129,900, were unchanged from June after rocketing up 34% year-over-year.

Ladner: The supply pressure is being felt by buyers in Ladner, where currently only 8 townhomes and 11 apartments are available for sale. There are only about 68 new townhouses under construction in all of Delta, but few are in Ladner. Active listings fell to 77 in July, down nearly 50% from a month earlier, and new listings are down 40% from a month earlier. With a sales-to-listing ratio of 122% in July, frustrated buyers bid condo prices up 2.6% in July from a month earlier, to $583,700. So far townhouse prices are holding steady at $754,200 after surging 11% over the past six months, and the detached house price is up 15.2% in the same period to a July benchmark of $1,263,400.

Tsawwassen: Don’t expect to see lot of new market residential in Tsawwassen. Even a modest 48-unit rental building is currently facing opposition. A shame, because demand remains high in this sunny community. While total sales were down 17% in July from June, new listings fell 35% and there were only 168 homes of all kind on the market at the of July, compared to 295 at the same time last year. With a sales-to-listing ratio hitting 89%, Tsawwassen’s composite home price has increased 12.3% over the past six months to $1,145,700 as of July.

Surrey: B.C.’s second-largest city is a safety valve for those who want to buy a townhouse but have difficulty finding one in Greater Vancouver. There are 1,139 new townhouses under construction in Surrey, compared to 1,149 in all of Greater Vancouver. In July, there were also 1,156 active listings for resale townhouses, com. Surrey’s average townhouse price in July was $710,200, up 1.1% from a month earlier.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“We can’t help everyone, but everyone can help someone.“

Satchel Paige

Balanced market seen holding this summer

June housing sales in Greater Vancouver were down 11.4% from May to the lowest level since January this year as the market wilted in the record-setting heat. Yet, with 3,842 transactions in the month, it remained the eighth-highest June on record in Greater Vancouver.

More telling, perhaps, is the direction of prices, which increased just 0.2 per cent from May, the lowest month-over-month increase in at least a year. As June ended, the composite price of all homes sold in Greater Vancouver was $1,175,100. The value of detached houses sold was unchanged from a month earlier at $1,801,000.

But sharp eyes will notice an anomaly: outlying markets that had been posting the highest year-over-year price increases reported the biggest month-over-month decline in detached house prices in June.

Detached house prices on Bowen Island, which had soared 34% annually as of May, posted a 0.9% price decline in June compared to May. Whistler, where prices had jumped 38% from a year earlier, had prices drop 1.8% in June from a month earlier. Ladner prices fell 0.6% from May to June, after seeing an annual acceleration of 27%.

Across the Fraser Valley, total sales fell 24% from May to June and the average detached house price dropped by 4% month-over-month.

Meanwhile on Vancouver’s West Side – the epicenter of B.C. urbanity – the benchmark price of a detached house increased 2.2 per cent in June from May, the highest increase in Greater Vancouver.

We don’t think this is surprising, or a short-term trend. September is expected to welcome in the fourth and final phase of B.C.’s post-pandemic reopening. This means international borders will open, all businesses will be back in action and thousands of workers will return to the office. The big city will look increasingly tempting as hockey games open to crowds, major concerts tune up and Vancouver’s restaurants, pubs and theatres are open for business.

Expect to see home sales and prices, not just in Vancouver but across the entire region, continue to increase. The reason is quite simply the undeniable law of supply of demand.

From 2010 to 2020, B.C.’s population increased by 737,206 while only 316,510 housing units were built. In 2020, just 39,000 housing units were completed in B.C., up just 3% from 2019.

Some catch-up is taking place. In the first five months of this year, Metro Vancouver new home registrations were up 69% compared to the same period in 2020. About 18,000 new non-rental homes were registered in Metro Vancouver so far this year.

Still, with resale home sales averaging more than 4,000 per month and 50% of new-multi-family strata projects selling out – a pace of around 2,800 per month – supply is barely keeping pace with demand. In fact, the number of active listings in June were down 1% from a month earlier and new listings down 18% compared to May.

The number of Metro Vancouver properties sold in the first six months of the year is the second highest on record, just below the first half of 2016. Without a substantial supply in homes available, that demand continues to create pressure on prices.

The revised mortgage “stress test” rules came into place June 1, but with multiple offers still significantly occurring below $1 million, the effects of this change don’t seem to have had much effect. Demand is strong at the lower price levels and the continued lack of homes available for sale will continue to create an extremely competitive landscape.

And remember, you only have to qualify for the stress test 5.25% mortgage rate, not pay it.

Right now, it is possible to secure a five-year variable mortgage at 0.99%, perhaps the lowest rate in Canadian history.

While this summer is likely to lead to less activity in the real estate market, it will provide opportunity. Sellers should consider listing during this time as there will be less new listings compared to the last four months, and buyers that are looking will likely be serious. With the Real Estate Council of BC and the Superintendent of Real Estate consenting to open houses and in-person showings again, access to homes will be also much easier.

Metro Vancouver June highlights:

• Highest detached house price increase from May: West Vancouver, up 3.4%

• Highest condominium price increase from May: Maple Ridge, up 3%

• Biggest decrease in detached house sales from May: Surrey, down 29.8%

• Lowest price detached houses in June: Sunshine Coast, at $838,300

• Highest price detached house in June: Vancouver’s West Side, at $3.38 million

• Top small market for investors to watch: Ladner

Vancouver Westside: Total West Side housing sales in June, at 616 transactions, were down 16% from May, but 51% higher than in June 2020. New Listings in June were down 13% compared to May 2021, yet up 10% compared to June 2020. The result is a 48% sales-to-new-listing ratio, and a subsequent price increase. In June the benchmark West Side detached house price, for example, was $3,458,300, up 16.3% from a year earlier and 2.2% higher – that is $76,000 – than a month earlier. The total current inventory of residential listings is steady at a four month’s supply, signaling a continued seller’s market. Condo investors should note that West Side apartment prices have not budged much in two months and are now less expensive, at $831,200, than they were three years ago, while average rents have increased.

Vancouver East Side: The East Side of Vancouver continues as a hot market, with June sales up 5% from May, to 451, a 61% increase from June 2020. New listings dropped to just 1,071 homes, down 17% from a year ago. The composite benchmark home price was down 0.2% from May and the detached house price fell 0.8%,month-over-month to $1,695,500. There is now a 3-month supply of listings on the East Side market and the sales-to-listing ratio is 66%, one of the strongest levels in Metro Vancouver. With prices moderating this summer despite the healthy sales, buyers may want to take advantage.

North Vancouver: North Vancouver saw listings of homes for sale drop 21% in June from a month earlier. June sale transactions fell 10% from May, to 322, and composite benchmark prices was up just 0.6 per cent from a month earlier, to $1,123,800, with detached houses also virtually unchanged at $1,914,000. On the resale market, there is about a 2-month supply of homes for sale, and the sales to listing ratio is 70%, signalling a seller’s market. There are 33 new condo projects and 25 townhouse developments underway across North Vancouver City and District, so future supply, albeit more expensive, is coming.

West Vancouver: West Vancouver is primarily a detached house market, so city proposals that would reduce the size of new houses and at the same time allow coach houses and secondary suites are worth watching. Plans call for the floor-space ratio on large lots reduced from 0.35 to 0.30, with a maximum of 2,200 square feet of house allowed on smaller lots. However, the city is also considering allowing an 800-square foot ‘bonus’ for a separate coach house (or laneway house) and 500 square feet for a secondary suite. The bonus would also be applied on lots with homes built prior to 1976, provided that the original house is retained. The new rules, if all approved, would come in January of 2022. Meanwhile, there was little change in West Vancouver’s housing market in June: sales were down 1% from May and active listings dropped by just 7 homes from a month earlier. West Vancouver’s detached house price is now $3,152,500, up just 0.4% from May, but 21.5% higher than in June 2020.

Richmond: You may not notice because of the construction dust coming from 1,000 new multi-family homes being built at the Richmond Centre shopping centre site, but Richmond housing sales dipped 7% in June from a month earlier, to 472 transactions, and new listings were down 15%, month-over-month. The sales-to-listing ratio is a healthy 66%, however, which keeps this a seller’s market. Richmond is considered a major destination for foreign buyers and new immigrants so the expected opening of international borders by this September is reason for confidence for home sellers and developers. The June detached house price in Richmond was unchanged from May at $1,910,500, but up almost 20% from a year earlier.

Ladner: A game-changing decision is expected “shortly”, 16 months after the federal government said funding is available for either an eight-lane new tunnel or an eight-lane bridge to replace the aging Massey Tunnel. When approved the decision could have a profound effect on Ladner property values. Ladner is a small market – just 52 home sales and 100 active listings in June – but developers and the local council apparently have big plans for the waterfront community. Buyers do too. In June, Ladner’s sales-to-listing ratio was 98%. I humbly suggest that Ladner may the prime sleeper market in Metro Vancouver.

Tsawwassen: Total June housing sales in Tsawwassen reached 70, down 26% from May but up 100% from June of last year. Active Listings were 185, compared to 270 at that time in 2020, and 182 at the end of May; New listings in June were down 22% compared to May 2021 and down 14% compared to June 2020. This remains a strong seller’s market, with a sales-to-listings ratio of 70% compared to 74% in May.

Burnaby East: Burnaby East, like many areas, saw housing sales decline in June, dropping 8% from May to just 49 total sales. What is different here is that the sales-to-listing ratio is a scorching 89%, as new listings dropped nearly 30%. There is only a 2-month supply of homes for sale if the current trends continue. The benchmark house price in East Burnaby is now $1,440,000, down 2% from May, the biggest month-over-month drop and the lowest house price in Burnaby.

Burnaby North: The next phase of what will be 13 new residential towers at the Amazing Burnaby site in North Burnaby goes to public hearing June 29, so this area will apparently continue to see a good supply of strata product. This is welcomed because new listings of existing homes for sale fell 21% in June compared to May and there was only 519 active listings in June compared to 215 sales. The sales-to-listing ratio is 70% so there is no shortage of demand in what is a strong seller’s market.

Burnaby South: Townhouse buyers looking for value should consider South Burnaby, which borders three municipalities and has lower townhouse prices than any of them. In June, the typical South Burnaby townhouse sold for $702,200. This is $300,000 less than in East Vancouver; $223,000 less than in Richmond; and $120,000 below the benchmark price in New Westminster. Also, Burnaby South townhouse prices are up just 8% from a year ago, compared to double-digit increases in its three neighbouring municipalities. Burnaby South also has Burnaby’s lowest priced detached houses and condo apartments. This may help explain why Burnaby South total home sales posted the smallest sales decline of all Burnaby markets in June, down 6% from May.

New Westminster: The Royal City is becoming a condo market, seen in the tower construction on the Quay and the sales performance so for this year, which has seen 702 condo apartments sell, up from 340 at the same time last year. Of the 154 total residential sales in June in New Westminster, 106 were condos, which sold for a median price of less than $550,000, the second-lowest price in Greater Vancouver. A key reason is that younger buyers have embraced New West. A recent national survey ranked New Westminster as the No. 1 B.C. city for Millennial home buyers. There is only a 2-month supply of all types of homes in New Westminster, however, as 61 per cent of listings sold in June. If you want to get into the New West action, you may want to get moving.

Coquitlam: Coquitlam, where the mayor is the former president of the B.C. homebuilders association, is doing a lot of little things right and big things brilliantly. Coquitlam was an early adapter of smaller lots and laneway houses.

Its giant Burke Mountain residential community is a huge success, its multi-faceted development at SkyTrain-linked Coquitlam Centre is forging ahead with major partners and now the city has plans for a rural-type subdivision in its Hazel-Coy area along the Coquitlam River. Details to be announced later this year, but plans call for 950 new homes over 100 acres. Coquitlam home sales were 329 in June, up 52% from June 2020, even though active listings were down 12% in the same period. The sales-to-listing ratio is 72%, an indication that many buyers are eager to buy into Coquitlam’s vision.

Port Moody: Port Moody appears to have more interest in approving rental apartments than strata projects, but the condos being developed are increasingly sophisticated: one will boast a waterfall, another a day care; another with Inlet views from a rooftop patio. Most Port Moody condos are fairly new, dating to just before and after the arrival of SkyTrain. This explains the current median condo price of $680,000, the highest in the Tri-Cities. Still, 263 condos have sold in the city in the past six months, more than double the number in the first half of 2020. The entire housing market is solid, with sales of 95 units in June, up 50% from June 2020, and a sales-to-listing ratio of 62%.

Port Coquitlam: The biggest residential development planned for Port Coquitlam is social housing, but buyers can also find comfort here, with median condo prices at under $500,000 and both detached houses and townhouse prices the lowest in the Tri-Cities. Comfort is appealing: the sales to listing ratio in June was 84%, the highest in the Tri-Cities and among the top in Greater Vancouver. Port Coquitlam is in close proximity to the giant Coquitlam Centre development, but at lower cost.

Pitt Meadows: Like many more rural markets, Pitt Meadow saw a sharp drop in total residential sales in June, with transactions dropping 19% from May to just 44 units. New Listings in June were down 6% compared to May 2021. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 1-month’s supply, but the strong sellers’ market is a bit muted, with 73% of new listings selling in June, down from 84% in May.

Maple Ridge: Affordable, growing Maple Ridge saw 244 home sales in June, down 15% from May but 85% higher than in June 2020. The benchmark composite home price is $996,800, up 27.5% from year ago, but virtually unchanged from May at among the lowest in Greater Vancouver. Condo prices dipped 0.4% from May to $428,400 in June, the lowest in the entire region. Seller’s market conditions continue, with a sales-to-listing ratio at a startling 89% in June. With just 383 active listings on the market, prices will likely increase this summer.

Surrey: The second-largest city in the Lower Mainland saw price increases cooling in June, with average house prices, which had soared 27% from a year earlier, eking out a 0.5% increase from May to $1,511,707 in June. Sales of detached houses plunged 29.8% from May, to 421, however, an indication that the cooling may become a chill. Townhouse transactions, down 19.5% month-over-month, and condo apartment sales, down 25.3% from May, followed the downward trend. The average Surrey townhouse price in June was $747,256, while the average condo sold for $468,319, with both prices down fractionally from May.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

May home sales: $11 million an hour, 24 hours a day

“Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.”

Satchel Paige

Like the weather itself in May, the Greater Vancouver housing market was unseasonably hot but with subtle signals of cooling.

May marked the second consecutive month with sales declining in absolute numbers from the previous month, but with a 187 per cent increase in transactions compared to May of last year, it is hard to say this market is slowing. May received a boost from a sudden change in the ‘mortgage stress test’ in mid-month that extended the stress to all homebuyers, not only to those with a 20 per cent down payment. That last-minute change caused some buyers to push to close on sales before the June 1 deadline for the new stress test to begin.

Under the revised stress-test regulations, buyers must qualify at a five-year mortgage rate of 5.25 per cent, which is much higher than the actual mortgage rates available. (Scotiabank and National Bank , as examples, are currently offering five-year fixed rates of 2.14%). Buyers don’t have to pay the higher rate, just prove they can afford it.

Apparently, many can. During May, 4,346 homes were sold in Greater Vancouver and another 2,951 in the Fraser Valley, where sales were up 267%, year-over-year. Ponder these facts for a moment.

May, therefore, set an astounding pace of 235 sales per day, every day, all month long, or $11.1 million worth of transactions every hour, based on the composite Lower Mainland home price of $1.14 million.

Will the stress test affect early June sales? Not likely. June 15 marks the Phase 2 relaxing of B.C.’s COVID-19 restrictions, which could provide further confidence and impetus to the housing market.

Say what you will about the effects of the pandemic on the real estate market, optimism is always a good thing when it comes to real estate.

What could and would cool the summer market, however, is a real and sustained uptick in actual mortgage rates – and that is a possibility due to inflation fears.

You may have noticed that lumber prices are up 300% in the past year, copper prices hit a record high in May,global oil prices are 80% higher than a year ago and the Canadian dollar is at a six-year high. And have you bought a T-bone steak or filled your car with gas recently? This all signals inflationary pressure and a potential rise in the Bank of Canada rate, which has its next setting on June 9.

Best advice for homebuyers: lock-in a prequalified mortgage rate for 90 days right now.

Best advice for home sellers: accept the best offer you get and don’t bank on multiple offers over your asking price.

We are in the midst of an unprecedented housing sales cycle right across the Lower Mainland but, like the May weather, it can cool without much warning.

Metro Vancouver May highlights

Top detached housing sales: Surrey, with 600

Highest median detached house price: West Side, Vancouver, at $3,580,000

Record price for an East Vancouver detached house: $4 million, sold May 15

Lowest median condo price: Maple Ridge, at $458,000

Lowest median townhouse price: Surrey, at $696,000

Regional reports

Greater Vancouver: High prices, tougher mortgage qualification regulations and demographics are having an effect on the type of homes selling in Greater Vancouver. Sales of detached houses are now being eclipsed by sales of lower-cost townhouses and condominium apartments. This is partly a reflection of the growing influence of Millennials, who are replacing baby boomers as the prime home consumer, since Greater Vancouver has a disproportionately high number of Millennials.

In May detached home sales were up 166% year over year, but townhouse sales were up by 168% and condo apartment sales increased by 213% in the same period. Much of this is based on the fact the typical detached house in May sold for $1.8 million, while the townhouse benchmark was about half that, at $936,000, and condo apartments sold for a benchmark price of $737,100. Also, while detached house prices are similar across the region, buyers can find condo apartments for less than $600,000 in at least eight communities, including most of the Tri-Cities and South Delta. Also, while detached house prices have increased nearly 28% in the past year, townhouse prices are up 16.8% and condo prices have risen less than 8%. Clearly, many buyers, both Millennials and downsizing baby boomers, now see strata as the best value in Greater Vancouver.

In May, more than 7,000 new listings were added to the market. This was down from April and a signal that active listings may have peaked. With two straight month of lower sales month-over-month, buying levels may have also peaked.

Make no mistake it is a very active market still; we’ve just fallen off the cataclysmic highs of March and April. And that’s not a bad thing.

Vancouver Westside: There were 2,396 active listings on the Westside market in May and total sales, at 736, were also down 4% from April. With a sales-to-listings ratio of 50% there is now about a four-month inventory on the market. But the townhouse supply is disappearing more quickly. Only 125 new townhouses are under construction, but most of these have pre-sold months ago. More telling, just three new townhouse units have started so far this year. The May sales-to-new-listing ratio of existing townhouses was 60% and the benchmark price is rising 2.6% per month – twice as fast as detached houses or condos – and hit $1,274,000 in May. If you own a Westside townhouse and are considering selling, now is the time to list.

Vancouver East Side: For the first time ever, an East Side house on a 33-foot lot sold for $4 million. There were multiple bids, all from Millennial buyers, for the East 33rd house near Main Street that sold May 15. This shows just how hot the East Side has become. The benchmark price has risen 9.2 per cent in the last three months to hit $1,709,700 in May. Still, as we have noted before, East Vancouver detached houses have huge potential because of the Broadway Corridor SkyTrain extension and new employment centres, especially in the high-tech and medical sectors. We don’t think $4 million will be record East Vancouver price for long. In May, East Side total sales were down 15% from April, but up 184% from May of last year. With a sales to listing ratio of 56%, this is seller’s market with legs.

North Vancouver: North Vancouver May sales marked one of the biggest declines in the Metro region, dropping 25% from a month earlier, to 358 transactions. Condo apartments were the only sector posting higher sales in May than in April, with an increase of 21% to 207 transactions. Condo prices are now up 10% from a year ago to $654,000, but this is $400,000 less than a townhouse and $700,000 below the $1,902,000 benchmark for a detached house in North Vancouver. Total North Vancouver listings fell 11% month-over-month in May, which kept the sales-to-listing ratio at 60%, still a very active seller’s market. But the condo market is where the action is happening.

West Vancouver: West Vancouver May sales were more than double that of May 2020, but fell a sharp 22% from April, with a total of 90 sales in the month. As usual, detached houses led the transactiosns, with 60, at benchmark price of $3,139,800, a price up nearly 20% (that is around $600,000) from a year earlier. There were also 28 condo sales in May, up from 21 in April, at a benchmark price of $1,131,000, by far the highest price in Metro Vancouver. The month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 7 month’s supply and sales to listings ratio is 34%, which signals a balancing market.

Richmond: Total housing sales were 505 in May,– down 24% from April 2021, but up a startling 232% compared to May 2020. New Listings in May were down 16% compared to April 2021. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 3 month’s supply and the sales-to-listings ratio of 60%, sure signs of a continued seller’s market.

Burnaby East: May housing sales reached 53 transactions. This was down from 76 (30%) in April 2021, but 194% higher than in May 2020. Active Listings were at 117 at month end compared to 108 at that time last year and 112 at the end of April. New Listings in May were down 30% compared to April 2021, up 81% compared to May 2020 and up 56% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 68% compared to 68% in April 2021, 42% in May 2020 and 50% in May 2019.

Burnaby North: Total housing sales in May were 241– down from 316 (24%) in April 2021,but up from 79 (205%) in May 2020. New Listings in May were down 17% compared to April 2021, and up 146% compared to May 2020. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 62% compared to 68% in April 2021, 50% in May 2020 and 44% in May 2019.

Burnaby South: Total housing sales in May were 231 – down from 268 (14%) in April 2021, but up from 64 (261%) in May 2020, up from 131 (76%) in May 2019; Active Listings were at 664 at month end compared to 450 at that time last year and 629 at the end of April; New Listings in May were down 13% compared to April 2021, up 204% compared to May 2020 and up 21% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 59% compared to 59% in April 2021, 50% in May 2020 and 40% in May 2019.

New Westminster: Total housing sales in May were 194 – down from 199 (3%) in April 2021, up from 73 (166%) in May 2020, up from 127 (53%) in May 2019; Active Listings were at 375 at month end compared to 356 at that time last year and 366 at the end of April; New Listings in May were down 10% compared to April 2021, up 74% compared to May 2020 and down 1% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 72% compared to 66% in April 2021, 47% in May 2020 and 47% in May 2019.

Coquitlam: Total housing sales in May were 350 – down from 362 (3%) in April 2021, up from 132 (165%) in May 2020, up from 205 (77%) in May 2019; Active Listings were at 759 at month end compared to 760 at that time last year and 688 at the end of April; New Listings in May were down 7% compared to April 2021, up 57% compared to May 2020 and up 10% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 61% compared to 58% in April 2021, 36% in May 2020 and 39% in May 2019.

Port Moody: Total housing sales in May were 102 – down from 126 (19%) in April 2021, up from 46 (122%) in May 2020, up from 62 (65%) in May 2019; Active Listings were at 182 at month end compared to 211 at that time last year and 178 at the end of April; New Listings in May were down 15% compared to April 2021, up 56% compared to May 2020 and up 19% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 68% compared to 71% in April 2021, 47% in May 2020 and 49% in May 2019.

Port Coquitlam: Total housing sales May were 165 – down just 1% from April 2021,but up 175%) compared to May 2020. Active Listings were at 270 at month end compared to 190 at that time last year and 242 at the end of April; New Listings in May were down 5% compared to April 2021, up 175% compared to May 2020 and up 34% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 66% compared to 64% in April 2021, 66% in May 2020 and 71% in May 2019.

Pitt Meadows: Total housing sales in May were 54 – up from 48 (13%) in April 2021, and 135% higher thanin May 2020, Active Listings were at 63 at month end compared to 103 at that time last year and 63 at the end of April; New Listings in May were down 7% compared to April 2021, up 33% compared to May 2020 and up 7% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 84% compared to 69% in April 2021, 47% in May 2020 and 66% in May 2019.

Maple Ridge: May housing sales hit 286 – down 16%)from April 2021, but up from 111 (158%) in May 2020. Active Listings were at 444 at month end compared to 633 at that time last year and 434 at the end of April; New Listings in May were down 11% compared to April 2021, up 93% compared to May 2020 and up 9% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 72% compared to 77% in April 2021, 54% in May 2020 and 47% in May 2019.

Ladner: Total housing sales were 49 – down 44%)from April 2021, and up from 145% from May 2020. New Listings in May were down 29% compared to April 2021, up 35% compared to May 2020 and down 24% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 75% compared to 80% in April 2021, 42% in May 2020 and 48% in May 2019.

Tsawwassen: Sales totalled 95 in May, up from 82 (16%) in April 2021, and up from 35 (171%) in May 2020. New listings in May were up 2% compared to April 2021, up 47% compared to May 2020 and up 36% compared to May 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 74% compared to 66% in April 2021, 40% in May 2020 and 40% in May 2019.

Surrey: If you have been wondering where the strongest detached housing market in Metro Vancouver is, look to Surrey. In May, 600 detached houses sold in Surrey, which is more than sold in Vancouver, Burnaby and Richmond combined. Surrey detached sales were up 358% compared to May 2020 the highest increase in the Metro region and sales were virtually unchanged from April. The benchmark Surrey detached house price is now $1,429,300, up 31.5% from a May of last year. In all, Surrey accounted for nearly half – 1,431 – of the 2,951 total housing sales in the Fraser Valley during May.

Potential Immigration the wild card in Metro housing market

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.”

Albert Einstein

March housing sales skyrocketed more than 126% higher than in March 2020 – the month the COVID-19 pandemic began – to the highest monthly sales pace ever recorded in Greater Vancouver.

The composite benchmark home price leaped 9.9% in March from a year earlier and detached house prices surged nearly 18% higher to all-time high of $1.7 million.

The unprecedented action of 5,843 sales in the month – more than 174 sales every day – blew past housing forecasts and eclipsed the former all-time sales record set in March of 2016, long recognized as the peak year for housing sales in the region.

Dexter agents have been running on the frontline of the current pace, and we are detecting some buyer fatigue, which is understandable. This market can’t continue at this level forever and, as we’ve seen in previous years, March can be the high point of the year for housing sales.

There could be some truth in that theory, but this year and this market is consistently shattering all the traditions.

We believe there is one wild card yet to be played and it could shift the housing market into hyperdrive later this year. This is a potential rebound of international buyers and immigration, which were credited for sparking high home sales in the mid-1980s and in 2016-18 and could do so again in 2021.

In March of 2020 foreign buyers accounted for 24 residential property transactions in Metro Vancouver, despite the provincial 20% tax on homes. But, after COVID-19 travel restrictions hit, that dropped to single-digits per month. We believe pent-up demand and a war chest is building and it could be unleashed on the Vancouver-area housing market later this year.

For instance, according to recent report from the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC), $43.6 billion was transferred from troubled Hong Kong to Canada in 2020, and this, FINTRAC said, does not include transfers via cryptocurrencies, between financial institutions, or transfer under $10,000.

As well, Canada was posting the highest population growth in the developed world prior to COVID-19, according to Statistics Canada, with its 1.4% annual growth rate in 2019 more than twice as high as the U.S. and Great Britain, which tied for second place. The Canadian government has increased its annual immigration quota to 400,000 people per year. The inflow has been stalled by the pandemic but when that ends the rush into Canada will begin. Wild as the current Metro Vancouver market is right now, it may be the calm before the storm.

And with some calls to cool the market, and concern over low interest rates creating challenges when rates do eventually rise, we have to remember that Canada has one of the soundest lending practices in the world and with the current Stress Test in place, buyers are qualifying at rates much higher than we are seeing in the market place right now. So, while demand side measures are easy for governments to tinker with and implement, supply side realities need to be a focus or this rush of demand will once again be pushed into the future and create challenges yet again.

February 2021: Watch for the rise of the strata market

February is traditionally a ho-hum period in residential real estate but this year, as with so much of the recent Metro Vancouver market, this February proved exceptional. Housing sales hit the highest monthly level since June 2017, with prices arcing nearly 9% higher than a year earlier to a composite benchmark of $1,084,000. The typical detached house now sells for more than $1.62 million –an average increase of $221,000 from February 2020 – with sales up 80% from a year ago.

Detached houses have been the headline news in Metro Vancouver for the past year, but we believe February marked the beginning of a major shift towards the townhouses and condominium sector.

February townhouses sales were up 82% year-over-year and condo apartment sales were 65% higher. Together, strata property sales accounted for nearly 65% of all February transactions, with condo apartments leading all sectors with a blistering pace of 62 sales every day. Condo developers reported “a sense of urgency” in new condo sales in February as 1,400 new condos started construction and 1,759 existing condos sold.

It may come down simply to supply. There is a lack of detached houses to meet demand, despite a 21% spike in new listings in February, and there has been a chronic shortage of townhouses, with just a 1.5-month supply now available. In Port Moody and Maple Ridge there were almost twice as many townhouse sales as active listings in February. And on Vancouver’s West Side the number of townhouse sales in February were the highest since June 2017.

Investors, we believe, are pivoting to condos, looking towards the easing of pandemic regulations that will bring vibrancy back to downtowns and foreign students back to Metro Vancouver campuses. Affordability is part of the equation. In the past year, condo prices have increased just 2.5%, while townhouse prices jumped 7.2% and detached houses soared 13.7%. In East Vancouver, as one example, the typical condo apartment sells for $599,000 while a neighbouring detached house sells for $1.58 million.

For an increasing number of buyers, condominiums are now the first, the smartest and only choice.

What to expect going forward…

We are now experiencing a perfect storm that is churning housing demand and prices to unprecedented heights. Mortgage interest rates are at the lowest level in our lifetime, even our parents lifetime. This combines with intense buyer demand and simply not enough listings, all in an environment where the home is now the centre for living and work for thousands of families. Multiple offers are now the majority of transactions. We don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Welcome to January 2021 – please fasten your seat belts

Some will express surprise that, as we enter the second year of a global pandemic, the rush to purchase homes in Greater Vancouver continues the startling sales pace seen in 2020. But there is a simple reason for the January surge: price appreciation as accelerating buyer demand collides with a stubborn lack of inventory.

In the past 12 months, the average price (based on dollar volume of sales) of a Greater Vancouver home has increased in value by $93,529, which is far higher than the average household income. In the detached house sector, where sales exploded in January, the average year-over-year price increase is well into the six digits. Dexter agents experienced this first hand during the last week of January as a North Burnaby detached house listing had a stunning amount of interest and showing requests. A significant number of multiple offers occurred, resulting in a sale that surpassed the $1.49 million list price. Each of these bidder was likely aware that, since January of 2020, the average detached house price in North Burnaby has increased by $283,456.

Multiple bids are being seen from West Vancouver and the Sunshine Coast to south of the Fraser River and in every property sector, from detached houses to condominium apartments. In Greater Vancouver during January, 53% of new listings sold, and the sales-to-listing ratio has surpassed 50% for the past seven months. There is little relief coming in new construction. As 2021 started, only 241 detached houses and 230 townhouses had started construction across all of Metro Vancouver, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. data. Of the total 1,628 new apartment starts, 28% were rentals and many of the remaining condo apartments had been pre-sold months earlier.

What to expect for the 2021 housing market? More of the same. With mortgage interest rates at 100-year-lows and home prices rising an average of nearly $8,000 per month, buyers and investors have awoken to an unprecedented buying opportunity.

January 20, 2021 was a very good day…

The day started with the hope that some sanity will prevail with our neighbours to the south. The US Presidential Inauguration marked an optimistic start to a new path for this world leading economy and Canada as their closest ally.

Following that, we attended the virtual UDI (Urban Development Institute) Annual Forecasting Meeting looking at Real Estate trends in B.C. for 2021 and beyond. Please join me in congratulating Cynthia Jagger of Goodman Commercial, on her appointment to the UDI Board of Directors Executive, a very impressive achievement indeed!

To say that the outlook for Residential Real Estate is positive would be understated and other major asset classes of Industrial, Commercial Office, Retail and Multi-Family all showed varying degrees of strength and repositioning in this Covid-19 influenced environment. Overall, very positive with real demand in the housing market as we have discussed, and are experiencing from the pre-existing pent-up demand from 2018/2019, the shift in buyers housing needs due to workplace Covid related changes and of course historic low interest rates.

As we know, the supply of housing has been significantly impacted by the past six month’s sales strength and the slowdown of new supply coming to the market. This situation will persist for some time and as a result we will be seeing significant price gains in most of the resale market. This is most definitely a buying opportunity that is clearly being recognized. Low interest rates, high savings rates and strong pent-up demand will guarantee higher prices through 2021.

Consider that all market improvement in 2020 occurred while immigration was running at 90% below normal! The lack of immigration due to Covid and the closed borders will change. Imagine what 50000 plus new immigrants per year to BC, absent in 2020/2021, will represent to demand. The persistent imbalance in the Supply/Demand equation (See the article I wrote in 2009 below!) assures us that prices will continue to be under pressure.

Is 2021 a great year to buy Real Estate? YES!

Dave Peerless,

President and Managing Broker

What I know about Real Estate I learned in Economics 101

Excerpt from “Real Estate Action” 2009.

My career in Real Estate has spanned thirty years and focused on the sale of residential properties and the management of Real Estate companies in the Vancouver, British Columbia market place. During that time I have had the opportunity to train and mentor many hundreds of Realtors during good markets, great markets and some much more challenging markets. Looking back I realize I learned the most valuable lessons about how Real Estate markets work from a first year business course; Economics 101.

Ironically, this was the first class of the day and after working late shifts at my job I frequently slept in this class. I did, however, pay attention to the principles of supply and demand. The instructor pressed home the idea that all markets are driven by the demand for a product and the price of that product is then a function of the available supply to satisfy that demand. If at any point in time the supply is less than demand, prices will rise and if greater than demand the price will fall. This revelation has been the backbone of how I have learned to identify market trends and in time has greatly helped my decision making in terms of buying and selling Real Estate and in the operations of Real Estate companies.

Real Estate markets or the factors that influence supply and demand can be identified in any market location and analyzed to determine trends or directions in prices. While I have never been able to control factors such as the rate of interest, the number of new homes being built, demographics of population movements or such things that affect supply and demand, by keeping track of some of these factors one can predict the future real estate cycles. A bold statement.

The supply side of the real estate cycle relies on such factors as how many new homes are being built in the area one is analyzing. Statistics are kept by the government both locally and regionally through building permit applications and approvals. This will indicate how much new supply is likely to be available in the near future. Builders and developers are encouraged by demand and favourable prices for their product and simply put will seek to build new housing when a reasonable profit is likely. The more profitable the market, the more the supply will increase and inevitably will to lead to an oversupply as the balance in this real estate equation starts to tip in favour of Buyers. At this stage in the cycle prices will flatten or drop as supply outstrips demand. Naturally as demand weakens and the profit potential drops, developers will pull back from the market and supply will drop re-balancing the equation and re-setting the cycle for new homes.

The largest part of the real estate supply in any market is that of used homes. This supply is largely influenced by factors of cost; prices, interest rates (affordability) and as well as the need for a change in housing as families grow or shrink. The overlying factor that controls these influences is that of confidence. If a buyer population feels confident in the economy, secure in their jobs and the future of real estate in their community, they will be inclined to spend money and increase their housing consumption, purchase property for investment or perhaps a second home for vacations. This confidence in a real estate market increases sales and reduces supply causing prices to rise. In time if the supply declines too much the market shifts to favour the seller and further pushes prices higher. Eventually as the prices start to affect affordability and the costs too high for the average buyer, sales will start to decline and supply increase. The real estate cycle continues. This process can be greatly affected by other factors that will influence the speed of change such as a change in interest rates, economic changes, population shifts among others.

Paying attention to these influences on supply will help spot trends in the real estate market and when combined with a sense of demand in a local economy, will give strong insight into where we are in the real estate cycle.

Demand in this context is the interest in acquiring real estate for personal use and investment. Like the supply side of the real estate equation demand is influenced by a number of factors such as the price of real estate, cost of borrowing, population growth and as before, the confidence in the market. In any local market if individuals feel that prices are affordable and borrowing for a purchase is reasonably priced the demand will rise and in doing so will put pressure on prices to rise. As this stage in the cycle takes hold demand is strong and large volumes of sales take place reducing supply and further affecting prices. In time, as affordability declines, demand slows and we move from a seller’s market where demand exceeds supply to a balanced market where prices stabilize or perhaps start to decline into a buyer’s market. Once again the real estate cycle moves on. Confidence in the economy will also affect demand. If a population feels insecure about real estate values, their job or about where the economy is going demand and prices will decline to a point where affordability is once again in balance between the existing supply and demand.

The normal ebbing and flowing of the real estate markets are generally local in nature with modest swings in values however they can be significantly affected by world events more likely to influence confidence. The principles of supply and demand are however reliable if carefully tracked. Trends follow similar patterns and in fact history does repeat itself. Every time I hear that this time the market and those factors that influence markets are different I realize that the effects are not. During the past thirty years there have been at least four distinct market cycles in the area I practice and in speaking with others active in real estate markets prior to my experience these cycles have behaved in a similar fashion for decades. One only needs to look at historical pricing data in a region over time to see these cycles in action.

I have learned over time to take comfort in the real estate market as a good place to invest, to have a business and to provide a home for my family. Time and patience have proven to be the greatest positive influences in owning real estate. Paying attention to those factors that consistently impact supply and demand will help you spot trends in any local real estate market.

It would seem economics 101 had a lasting impression after all.

David Peerless

“There’s nowhere you can be that isn’t where you’re meant to be…”

John Lennon

Last year I started this report with John Lennon’s lyrics about the new year and hoping it was a good one… Well, the real estate market came alive, but a global pandemic isn’t what anyone would call a good year. In keeping with the legendary artist though, back in March who would have imagined that December would be a record month for the number of properties sold in that month. The analysis and questions of how this could happen during such a global crisis will be a topic for many conversations, and while record low interest rates play a part, a lot of it comes down to one simple reason: everyone’s life was turned upside down, where they live became one of the most important influences in the lives of many in 2020. And as we move through 2021 and life changes again for some, real estate will again be a focus of finding that right place to live and for some what seemed like the right place in 2020 may not actually be the right place in 2021.

There were 3,157 properties sold of all types in Greater Vancouver in December this year compared with 3,131 sold in November, 2,046 sales in December last year and 1,094 sold in December 2018. It was the highest number of sales for the month of December on record in Greater Vancouver, shattering the previous December highs in 2015 at 2,905 and 2003 at 2,609. Total sales for 2020 were 31,611 up 23 per cent from 2019 and 26 per cent from 2018. The number of sales in 2020 were only 6 per cent below the 20-year average – pretty incredible considering the grinding halt of activity in March, April and May. It was definitely a tale of two markets in one year with there being 11,471 sales in the first 6 months and 20,140 in the last 6 months of 2020. Multiple offers were common more than not in the last half of 2020, and more so in detached and townhomes as outdoor space and distance from those around us was coveted. While apartments in downtown Vancouver had seen less activity in comparison, that started to change as the year closed out and buyers began to see opportunity amongst the increase in active listings. We will see more activity in the apartment market as 2021 continues and vaccines become more and more available. As activity in business and events come back so too will the desire to live close to the action.

Looking at the different types of properties, detached home sales were up 30 per cent year over year (new listings were down 6 per cent), townhouses sales were up 31 per cent year over year (new listings were up 3 per cent), apartment sales were up 12 per cent year over year (new listings were up 13 per cent). Detached homes made up 34 per cent of all sales (32 per cent in 2019), while townhomes made up 19.5 per cent (18 per cent in 2019) and apartments 44.4 per cent (48.4 per cent in 2019).

So how do we sum up the year in Greater Vancouver real estate month by month?

January – Optimism for a new year after 2 very slow years
February – Market on the rise
March – Tale of two months – robust start followed by sudden halt
April – 30 more days of March
May – Can we really buy and sell real estate?
June – Yes, we can buy and sell real estate
July – Let’s buy and sell real estate
August – Vacation or buy and sell real estate? Buy and sell real estate!
September – Kids back to school, buyers and sellers will be distracted
October – Buyers and sellers not distracted – strongest month for sales in 2020
November – Market is slowing
December – Market isn’t slowing, strongest December on record

2020 Average Daily Listings and Sales in Greater Vancouver by Week:

First two weeks of March – 253 new listings, 138 sales
Last two weeks of March – 167 New Listings, 98 Sales
April – 120 new listings, 56 sales
May – 189 new listings, 75 sales
June – 274 new listings, 115 sales
July – 274 new listings, 147 sales
August – 299 new listings, 157 sales
September – 313 new listings, 176 sales
October – 272 new listings, 182 sales
November – 212 new listings, 161 sales
November 30 to December 4 – 165 new listings, 163 sales
December 7 to 11 – 147 new listings, 140 sales
December 14 to 18 – 122 new listings, 152 sales
December 21 to 25 – 68 new listings, 143 sales
December 28 to 31 – 76 new listings, 138 sales

The number of active listings in Greater Vancouver dropped quickly through December. Even though the number of new listings in December were 38 per cent above the 10-year average for the month, the total number of active listings at the end of December dropped to 9,096 from 13,066 at the end of October. There were 9,309 active listings at the end of December 2019. As typically happens at the end of December a number of listings expire on December 31st which resulted in there being 8,144 as the calendar turned to 2021. At the start of 2020 there were 8,231 active listings in Greater Vancouver. Detached homes made up 42 per cent of total active listings at the start of 2020 while only 32 per cent of current active listings are detached properties in 2021. Townhouse and apartments were 51 per cent in 2020 and 62 per cent currently. Demand for detached homes continues to be strong and with the limited number of homes available, there will be strong competition amongst buyers resulting in multiple offers and pressure on prices as we move through 2021. If a pandemic doesn’t trip up the real estate market, vaccines and recovery surely will have more of a positive impact in activity going forward.

What has truly driven the real estate market in 2020 and will it continue to drive the market in 2021? Interest rates are at the lowest we’ve seen, enabling buyers to take advantage of increased purchasing power and opportunity. Buyers that had been on the fence in 2018 and 2019 due to tightened lending restrictions and a hesitation in the market as buyers and sellers wanted to see what would come of increased taxes on purchasing real estate and attempts to curtail demand. The first decade of this century actually saw 8 per cent more real estate transactions than 2010 to 2019. Considering the increase in the number of homes available in the last 10 years compared to 2000 to 2009, it shows that pressure was building for movement to happen. Bring on the pandemic and it jump started movement on a very large scale. To think this movement has been captured in the last 6 months alone, would be a naïve position to take. With interest rates likely to remain low for the next few years, savings rates at all-time highs as consumers are spending less on social and recreational activities and the amount of money pumped into the economy by government, there’s no reason to think sales activity will slow in the near future. As has been the case and will continue to be the case, there just are not enough homes available to meet the demand of buyers in our market place. As much as many resists the notion that real estate should be a commodity, it is. And one in which many take great pride in living in.

“When the pandemic began in March, the housing market came to a near standstill. We knew however, that shelter needs don’t go away in times of crisis, they intensify,” Colette Gerber, REBGV Chair said, “The real estate community worked closely with our regulatory bodies and public health officials in the spring to ensure appropriate precautions and protocols were in implemented to BC REALTORS® could help residents safely meet their housing needs. After adapting to the COVID-19 environment, local home buyer demand and seller supply returned at a steady pace throughout the summer, fall and winter seasons. Shifting housing needs and low interest rates were key drivers of this activity in 2020. Looking ahead the supply of homes for sale will be a critical factor in determining home price trends in 2021.”

East of Vancouver, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 2,086 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® in December, the strongest December on record and 81.2 per cent above normal for the month. There were 19,926 total sales in 2020, which was 28.7 per cent higher than 2019 at 15,487 and the fourth highest sales since 2011. During 2020, there were 8,176 detached home sales, 5,102 townhouse sales and 4,357 apartment sales.  Year-over-year the increase in detached home sales was 41.7 per cent, for townhomes 31.2 per cent and apartments 5.9 per cent. There were 1,502 new listings in December which was the second highest on record. December finished with 3,949 active listings, down from 5,847 active listings at the end of November. “The pandemic upended everything in 2020 and how the real estate market responded to it was nothing short of remarkable. No one could have anticipated a six-month stretch like we’ve just experienced. Typical seasonal cycles did not apply, how we conduct business had to change to keep the public safe; and most unexpected, has been the unwavering demand for family-sized homes in our region and so far, there is no sign of it slowing down.” Chris Shields, President of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board said.

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver:

 Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in December were 3,157 – up from 3,131 (1%) in November 2020, up from 2,046 (54%) in December 2019, up from 1,094 (189%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 9,096 at month end compared to 9,309 at that time last year and 11,716 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 40% compared to November 2020, up 50% compared to December 2019 and up 71% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with few areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 127% compared to 75% in November 2020, 123% in December 2019 and 75% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.4%.

Vancouver Westside:

 Total Units Sold in December were 486 – up from 470 (3%) in November 2020, up from 356 (37%) in December 2019, up from 190 (156%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 2,022 at month end compared to 1,687 at that time last year and 2,558 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 47% compared to November 2020, up 39% compared to December 2019 and up 63% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 4 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 115% compared to 59% in November 2020, 117% in December 2019 and 73% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.4%.

Vancouver East Side:

 Total Units Sold in December were 348 – down from 364 (4%) in November 2020, up from 208 (67%) in December 2019, up from 113 (208%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 922 at month end compared to 800 at that time last year and 1,232 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 44% compared to November 2020, up 66% compared to December 2019 and up 102% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is at 3 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with few areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 130% compared to 76% in November 2020, 129% in December 2019 and 85% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 10.2%.

North Vancouver:

 Total Units Sold in December were 250 – down from 264 (5%) in November 2020, up from 155 (61%) in December 2019, up from 99 (152%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 458 at month end compared to 466 at that time last year and 693 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 51% compared to November 2020, up 47% compared to December 2019 and up 107% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 153% compared to 79% in November 2020, 140% in December 2019 and 125% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 9.1%.

West Vancouver: 

Total Units Sold in December were 82 – down from 90 (9%) in November 2020, up from 46 (78%) in December 2019, up from 30 (173%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 449 at month end compared to 505 at that time last year and 558 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 41% compared to November 2020, up 12% compared to December 2019 and up 5% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 5 month’s supply (mostly balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 122% compared to 80% in November 2020, 77% in December 2019 and 47% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.4%.

Richmond:

 Total Units Sold in December were 343 – up from 335 (2%) in November 2020, up from 281 (22%) in December 2019, up from 122 (181%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 1,376 at month end compared to 1,540 at that time last year and 1,637 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 40% compared to November 2020, up 19% compared to December 2019 and up 51% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 4 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with few areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 113% compared to 64% in November 2020, 110% in December 2019 and 61% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 4.9%.

Burnaby East:

 Total Units Sold in December were 41 – up from 37 (11%) in November 2020, up from 24 (71%) in December 2019, up from 17 (141%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 65 at month end compared to 112 at that time last year and 105 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 50% compared to November 2020, down 10% compared to December 2019 and down 5% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 216% compared to 97% in November 2020, 114% in December 2019 and 85% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.3%.

Burnaby North:

 Total Units Sold in December were 171 – up from 156 (10%) in November 2020, up from 113 (51%) in December 2019, up from 50 (242%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 470 at month end compared to 322 at that time last year and 594 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 33% compared to November 2020, up 136% compared to December 2019 and up 106% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 104% compared to 63% in November 2020, 161% in December 2019 and 63% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.4%.

Burnaby South:

 Total Units Sold in December were 148 – up from 159 (7%) in November 2020, up from 132 (12%) in December 2019, up from 51 (190%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 574 at month end compared to 464 at that time last year and 669 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 29% compared to November 2020, up 85% compared to December 2019 and up 43% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is at 4 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with few areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 103% compared to 78% in November 2020, 169% in December 2019 and 50% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 2.4%.

New Westminster:

 Total Units Sold in December were 151 – up from 137 (10%) in November 2020, up from 77 (96%) in December 2019, up from 58 (160%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 331 at month end compared to 260 at that time last year and 462 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 45% compared to November 2020, up 82% compared to December 2019 and up 102% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 162% compared to 82% in November 2020, 151% in December 2019 and 126% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 4.5%.

Coquitlam:

 Total Units Sold in December were 309 – up from 260 (19%) in November 2020, up from 197 (57%) in December 2019, up from 89 (247%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 566 at month end compared to 568 at that time last year and 782 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 43% compared to November 2020, up 80% compared to December 2019 and up 78% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 146% compared to 70% in November 2020, 167% in December 2019 and 75% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 6.5%.

Port Moody:

 Total Units Sold in December were 78 – up from 67 (16%) in November 2020, up from 37 (111%) in December 2019, up from 29 (168%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 155 at month end compared to 138 at that time last year and 226 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 40% compared to November 2020, up 82% compared to December 2019 and up 218% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 153% compared to 79% in November 2020, 132% in December 2019 and 181% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 6.0%.

Port Coquitlam:

 Total Units Sold in December were 105 – up from 102 (3%) in November 2020, up from 84 (25%) in December 2019, up from 51 (106%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 133 at month end compared to 186 at that time last year and 199 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 13% compared to November 2020, up 78% compared to December 2019 and up 158% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 102% compared to 86% in November 2020, 145% in December 2019 and 128% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 6.6%.

Ladner: 

Total Units Sold in December were 34 – up from 47 (28%) in November 2020, up from 20 (70%) in December 2019, up from 23 (48%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 66 at month end compared to 136 at that time last year and 88 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 21% compared to November 2020, the same amount as December 2019 and up 114% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is at 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with few areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 113% compared to 124% in November 2020, 67% in December 2019 and 164% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 7.5%.

Tsawwassen:

 Total Units Sold in December were 74 – up from 55 (35%) in November 2020, up from 26 (185%) in December 2019, up from 13 (469%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 176 at month end compared to 193 at that time last year and 248 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 44% compared to November 2020, up 126% compared to December 2019 and up 231% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with few areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 172% compared to 71% in November 2020, 137% in December 2019 and 100% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.4%.

Pitt Meadows:

 Total Units Sold in December were 26 – down from 46 (43%) in November 2020, down from 27 (3%) in December 2019, up from 23 (13%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 47 at month end compared to 54 at that time last year and 64 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 47% compared to November 2020, up 53% compared to December 2019 down 51% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 130% compared to 121% in November 2020, 207% in December 2019 and 56% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.7%.

Maple Ridge: 

Total Units Sold in December were 214 – up from 176 (22%) in November 2020, up from 130 (65%) in December 2019, up from 73 (193%) in December 2018; Active Listings are were at 371 at month end compared to 557 at that time last year and 484 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 19% compared to November 2020, up 57% compared to December 2019 and up 132% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 129% compared to 86% in November 2020, 123% in December 2019 and 102% in December 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.9%.

“Character is much easier kept than recovered.”

Thomas Paine

This is no longer a comeback! This is a real estate market making its own way into 2021. This is well beyond pent up demand and more like a surge of moves being made for a variety of reasons. Those buying and selling have had more confidence in the real estate market than did the federal organization that insures mortgages in Canada – and true to form, the customer is always right!

There were 3,181 properties sold of all types in Greater Vancouver in November this year compared with 3,787 sold last month, 2,546 sales in November last year and 1,633 sold in November 2018. It was the fifth highest amount of sales for the month of November on record in Greater Vancouver, and the highest for the month since 2015 at 3,603. Total sales for 2020 have already exceeded the total number of sales in 2018 and 2019 with December still to come. Instances of multiple offers are still occurring at a rate we’ve not seen in the last few years in Metro Vancouver, with some reports showing that a quarter of transactions are selling at list price or above. While more so in detached homes and townhouses, there is still activity in the apartment market that has created competition. While downtown Vancouver has seen less activity in comparison, there are still quite a number of transactions occurring. Inventory of apartments for sale has increased from extreme seller’s market conditions in 2017, and yet the total is still much less than the number of listings on market in 2011 and 2012. As we move into 2021 and the potential for some relief from the pandemic comes, the push away from high rise apartments should relax. When immigration opens up again and service sector jobs return, demand for apartments will increase with it – both to purchase and rent.

Total sales in November were 25 per cent above the ten-year average for the month. Looking at the different types of properties, detached home sales were up 29 per cent year over year (43 per cent in October), townhouses up 40 per cent year over year (45 per cent in October), apartments up 12 per cent year over year (13 per cent in October). Detached homes made up 34 per cent of all sales (35 per cent in October), while townhomes made up 21 per cent (up from 20 per cent in October) and apartments 44 (up from 41) per cent. Total active listings for apartments are up 37 per cent year over year (compared to 31 per cent at the end of October), and active listings for townhouse and detached homes are down 12 per cent and 20 per cent respectively year over year.

2020 Average Daily Listings and Sales in Greater Vancouver by Week:

First two weeks of March – 253 new listings, 138 sales
Last two weeks of March – 167 New Listings, 98 Sales
April – 120 new listings, 56 sales
May – 189 new listings, 75 sales
June – 274 new listings, 115 sales
July – 274 new listings, 147 sales
August – 299 new listings, 157 sales
September – 313 new listings, 176 sales
October – 272 new listings, 182 sales
November 2 to 6 – 236 new listings, 151 sales
November 9 to 13 – 253 new listings, 188 sales
November 16 to 20 – 191 new listings, 155 sales
November 23 to 27 – 166 new listings, 149 sales

The number of new listings coming to market continued to decline in November with total active listings declining as well. Even though the number of new listings in November were 21 per cent above the 10-year average for the month, the total number of active listings at the end of November dropped to 11,716 from 13,066 at the end of October. While slightly above last year’s number of active listings which were 11,517 at the end of November 2019, with buyer demand continuing at the level we’ve seen in the second half of 2020, there will be less than 10,000 total active listings at the end of the year. While December is typically a time to hold off listing a home for sale, this year is a much different year, opportunity exists for those in need of making a move. And with more and more consumer activity happening on line, there will be more eyes shifting to real estate websites after visits to Amazon and other online shopping sites.

With one month left in 2020, it’s become clear that despite a pandemic, the real estate market has been driven by real demand and created a shortage of resale homes to be available for buyers to choose from. The month’s supply of listings since June have been the lowest in over two years for detached and townhouse type properties. While the number of apartments has gone up in Vancouver’s West Side, there has been a clear shift towards buying further out in Greater Vancouver. Looking at areas such as Coquitlam, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Lander, there 2 month’s supply of homes available. In Ladner, at the peak in June 2018 there were 131 houses available for sale, there are now 58; and for townhouses in Ladner, there were 46 available for sale in May 2019 and there are now 13.  In Port Coquitlam in August 2018 there were 159 houses available for sale, there are now 53 and for townhouses there were 102 available in April 2019 and there are now only 26 on the market.

“Home buyer demand has been at near record levels in our region since the summer,” Colette Gerber, REBGV Chair said, “This is putting upward pressure on home prices, particularly in our detached and townhome markets. The supply of homes for sale are a critical factor in understanding home price trends. The total number of homes for sale in Metro Vancouver is lagging behind the pace of demand right now. This trend favours home sellers in today’s market.”

East of Vancouver, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 2,173 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® in November, a decrease of 8.3 per cent compared to sales in October and a 54.7 per cent increase compared to November last year. This was the highest sales for the month of November in the Fraser Valley Board, a continued trend from September. There were 2,217 new listings in November, a 28.0 per cent decrease compared to October and an 18.1 per cent increase compared to November of last year. November finished with 5,847 active listings, a decrease of 14.9 per cent compared to October’s inventory and a decrease of 13.2 per cent year-over-year. “We’re running out of superlatives. We expected November activity to moderate due to the season, but the desire for family-sized homes and their benefits continues to dominate. Since the summer, we’ve seen the strongest demand in our Board’s 99-year history specifically for single-family detached and townhomes.” Chris Shields, President of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board said. “For example, in Cloverdale, demand for detached homes exceeded supply; and in four of our communities the sales-to-actives ratio for townhomes was 50 per cent or more. Meaning, for every 100 active listings, 50 were selling.”

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver: 

Total Units Sold in November were 3,131 – down from 3,787 (16%) in October 2020, up from 2,546 (23%) in November 2019, up from 1,633 (90%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 11,716 compared to 11,517 at this time last year and 13,066 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 27% compared to October 2020, up 35% compared to November 2019 and up 17% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 75% compared to 67% in October 2020, 83% in November 2019 and 46% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.8%.

Vancouver Westside:

 Total Units Sold in November were 470 – down from 547 (14%) in October 2020, up from 406 (16%) in November 2019, up from 298 (57%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 2,558 compared to 2,065 at this time last year and 2,820 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 30% compared to October 2020, up 41% compared to November 2019 and up 15% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 5 month’s supply (mostly balanced market conditions with some areas of seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 59% compared to 46% in October 2020, 72% in November 2019 and 43% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 2.6%.

Vancouver East Side:

 Total Units Sold in November were 364 – down from 392 (7%) in October 2020, up from 310 (17%) in November 2019, up from 181 (101%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 1,232 compared to 1,006 at this time last year and 1,383 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 31% compared to October 2020, up 41% compared to November 2019 and up 24% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 76% compared to 57% in October 2020, 91% in November 2019 and 47% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 6.1%.

North Vancouver: 

Total Units Sold in November were 264 – down from 334 (21%) in October 2020, up from 217 (22%) in November 2019, up from 139 (90%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 693 compared to 656 at this time last year and 824 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 25% compared to October 2020, up 47% compared to November 2019 and up 15% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 75% compared to 67% in October 2020, 83% in November 2019 and 46% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 9.3%.

West Vancouver: 

Total Units Sold in November were 90 – down from 104 (13%) in October 2020, up from 66 (36%) in November 2019, up from 30 (200%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 558 compared to 608 at this time last year and 630 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 44% compared to October 2020, down 3% compared to November 2019 and up 20% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 6 month’s supply (mostly balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 80% compared to 50% in October 2020, 56% in November 2019 and 21% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.1%.

Richmond:

 Total Units Sold in November were 335 – down from 384 (13%) in October 2020, up from 273 (22%) in November 2019, up from 178 (88%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 1,637 compared to 1,795 at this time last year and 1,637 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 16% compared to October 2020, up 36% compared to November 2019 and up 15% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 5 month’s supply (mostly balanced market conditions with some areas of seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 64% compared to 62% in October 2020, 71% in November 2019 and 39% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.3%.

Burnaby East: 

Total Units Sold in November were 37 – down from 50 (26%) in October 2020, up from 33 (12%) in November 2019, up from 17 (118%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 105 compared to 135 at this time last year and 124 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 39% compared to October 2020, up 3% compared to November 2019 and up 12% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 3 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 97% compared to 81% in October 2020, 89% in November 2019 and 50% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 6.7%.

Burnaby North:

 Total Units Sold in November were 156 – down from 170 (8%) in October 2020, up from 137 (14%) in November 2019, up from 71 (120%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 594 compared to 439 at this time last year and 627 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 13% compared to October 2020, up 87% compared to November 2019 and up 44% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 63% compared to 60% in October 2020, 104% in November 2019 and 42% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 4.7%.

Burnaby South: 

Total Units Sold in November were 159 – down from 178 (11%) in October 2020, down from 167 (5%) in November 2019, up from 79 (101%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 669 compared to 607 at this time last year and 744 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 32% compared to October 2020, up 17% compared to November 2019 and up 10% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 78% compared to 59% in October 2020, 96% in November 2019 and 42% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 2.9%.

New Westminster:

 Total Units Sold in November were 137 – down from 168 (18%) in October 2020, up from 123 (11%) in November 2019, up from 87 (57%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 462 compared to 335 at this time last year and 520 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 38% compared to October 2020, up 73% compared to November 2019 and up 3% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 3 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 82% compared to 62% in October 2020, 127% in November 2019 and 53% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.1%.

Coquitlam: 

Total Units Sold in November were 260 – down from 356 (27%) in October 2020, up from 210 (24%) in November 2019, up from 135 (93%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 782 compared to 753 at this time last year and 844 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 18% compared to October 2020, up 72% compared to November 2019 and up 42% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 3 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 70% compared to 78% in October 2020, 97% in November 2019 and 51% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 7.6%.

Port Moody: 

Total Units Sold in November were 67 – down from 92 (27%) in October 2020, up from 43 (56%) in November 2019, up from 33 (103%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 226 compared to 182 at this time last year and 254 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 31% compared to October 2020, up 77% compared to November 2019 and up 22% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 3 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 79% compared to 75% in October 2020, 90% in November 2019 and 47% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 5.3%.

Port Coquitlam:

 Total Units Sold in November were 102 – down from 122 (16%) in October 2020, up from 90 (13%) in November 2019, up from 67 (52%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 199 compared to 269 at this time last year and 250 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 32% compared to October 2020, down 3% compared to November 2019 and down 2% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 86% compared to 69% in October 2020, 73% in November 2019 and 55% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 6.8%.

Ladner: 

Total Units Sold in November were 47 – down from 55 (15%) in October 2020, up from 42 (12%) in November 2019, up from 22 (114%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 88 compared to 163 at this time last year and 120 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 25% compared to October 2020, down 25% compared to November 2019 and down 14% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 2 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 124% compared to 108% in October 2020, 82% in November 2019 and 50% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 9.0%.

Tsawwassen:

 Total Units Sold in November were 55 – down from 76 (28%) in October 2020, up from 36 (53%) in November 2019, up from 17 (224%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 248 compared to 250 at this time last year and 285 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 9% compared to October 2020, up 75% compared to November 2019 and up 103% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 5 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 71% compared to 89% in October 2020, 82% in November 2019 and 45% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.9%.

Pitt Meadows:

 Total Units Sold in November were 46 – up from 39 (18%) in October 2020, up from 24 (92%) in November 2019, up from 23 (100%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 64 compared to 82 at this time last year and 90 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 24% compared to October 2020, up 100% compared to November 2019 and down 7% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 121% compared to 79% in October 2020, 126% in November 2019 and 56% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 7.3%.

Maple Ridge:

 Total Units Sold in November were 176 – down from 293 (40%) in October 2020, up from 169 (4%) in November 2019, up from 108 (63%) in November 2018; Active Listings are at 484 compared to 674 at this time last year and 527 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 30% compared to October 2020, down 4% compared to November 2019 and up 1% compared to November 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 3 month’s supply (mostly seller’s market conditions with some areas of balanced conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 86% compared to 101% in October 2020, 78% in November 2019 and 53% in November 2018. Year-over-year, the House Price Index is up 8.7%.