“Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage. If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy.“

Dale Carnegie

Homebuyers, investors take advantage in this market

Highlights of the July Report

• Average 5-year mortgage rates are up just 1.4% from six months ago.
• First-time homebuyers in B.C. are down 46% compared to a year ago.
• Foreign homebuyers now account for just 1% of Metro transactions.
• July benchmark detached house price is up $47,500 from January 2022.
• The number of active listings are in decline

There are two sectors of homebuyers in Metro Vancouver’s market: owner-occupiers buying for their own use and investors buying homes for rental income or appreciation, with the latter traditionally accounting for about 20% of transactions. The current calming of the housing market represents an historical opportunity for both parties.

The current calming of the housing market represents an historical opportunity for both parties. For homebuyers who plan to purchase a property to live in for a long time, the current hysteria over rather modest mortgage interest rate hikes shouldn’t impact their purchase decision. After the drama of three Bank of Canada rates hikes, the average five-year fixed-rate mortgage at Canada’s six big banks has increased by just 1.4% in the last six months. Buyers purchasing into a five- or 10-year ownership horizon will be glad they bought during this lull in the summer of 2022.

It is rather ironic that, as strong economy creates near full employment in B.C. some look back to the global pandemic as the good old days.

But those who bought a Greater Vancouver home in pre-pandemic July 2019 – when the market was quite sluggish – would have experienced an average lift in benchmark value of 21% as of this month, or a cash increase in excess of $212,000. A detached house returned 41%, or a typical increase of $583,600, despite the recent easing of detached prices.

Since the start of this year, the typical detached house price is up by $47,500, though prices have declined over the past four months.

Of course, there is the psychological, counterintuitive factor at play, as many homebuyers pull to the sidelines just when they should be buying and then plunge in just when the market is peaking. It is a consistent phenomena that defies logic or change. The winning homebuyers in the current market cycle, as in the sleepy summer of 2019, will be those who act while others hesitate.

Some buyers, however, are being shunted aside in the current cycle: first-time homebuyers and foreign buyers. This may prove a boon to investors.

During the first half of this year, the number of B.C. first-time buyers fell 46% compared to the same period last year, accounting for just 4,426 purchasers. A key reason is the federal government’s mandatory stress test, which requires buyers to qualify at an unrealistically high five-year mortgage rate that many first buyers have difficulty meeting. Instead of buying, more than 4,000 will remain renters.

Also, while foreign homebuyers before the Foreign Buyer Tax may have accounted for 6% or more of all sales, they now make up only 1% of Metro Vancouver transactions, according to the BC Finance Ministry. The reason is a 20% of a home’s value tax on foreign buyer and the looming two-year ban on foreign homebuyers next January by the Federal Government.

So, investors who are purchasing investment condominiums now are enjoying lower prices, zero competition from global investors, a captive audience of renters and rising rental rates.

Investors realize that, despite all the government chest thumping over increasing the supply, Metro Vancouver housing starts as of July were down 23% from a year earlier and the new strata shortage is getting worse.

Part of the reason for this is government fees and taxes on new condos and townhomes, which, according to a survey released July 5 by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., account for up to 20% of a new strata price in Metro Vancouver. The Government Charges on Residential Development in Canada’s Largest Metropolitan Areas survey found a typical developer’s profit on a new condo is estimated at between 10% to 15%, so Metro Vancouver municipalities can make more money on a new home than those who build it. That’s not right, but it is reality.

The City of Vancouver, CMHC reported, has Canada’s highest average cost per-square-foot on new strata buildings, at $143 per square foot, owing entirely to density payments.

When the market was surging, private developers could handle such disparity. With sales and prices slowing, projects are being delayed or cancelled, which will lead to a further shortage of new condos and townhouses this fall.

We are now in a brief and government-induced buyer’s market that both homebuyers and savvy investors should take advantage of. While the market is slower now, like every market, this one will turn too. Buyers, enjoy it now!

Here is a look at the regional numbers:

Greater Vancouver: With the total inventory of homes for sale now at 6-month supply, the market has moved into balanced territory with some regions into a buyer’s market, especially for detached houses. The sales-to-listing ratio for detached houses in July fell to 39% and there are 8-months supply of homes available, which, if it persists, generally means prices are heading lower. A total of 1,904 residential properties sold in July, down 33% from a month earlier and 44% lower than in July 2021 and lower than even July 2019 and 2018. The composite benchmark home price in July is $1,207,400. This is a 10.3% increase over July 2021 but a 2.3% decrease compared to June 2022. Benchmark prices have been slowly declining, month-over-month since February. The July benchmark price for a detached home is $2,000,600, a 2.8 per cent decrease compared to June 2022. Active listings were at 10,734 at month end compared to 10,367 at that time last year but nearly unchanged from June 2022 at 10,839; New listings in July were down 25% compared to June 2022 and 10% lower than in July 2021.

July saw 4,067 new listings come to the market which was below the 5,410 that came on the market in June 2022 and less than the 4,514 that came out in July 2021 – sellers are beginning to hold off as well as many aren’t prepared to sell at prices below what they could have obtained earlier this year. And with less, listings, there are more properties coming off the market that were listed which is resulting in lower active listing counts. The number of new listings in July were 19% below the 10-year average (down from 3.5% below the 10-year average last month).

Fraser Valley: In July, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board reported 993 sales, a decrease of 22.5% from the previous month and a 50.5% drop compared to July 2021. July new listings totalled 2,385, down 28.4% compared to June 2022 and a decrease of 1.9% from July 2021. Active listings, at 6,413, were unchanged from June and up 30.9% over last July – bringing the sector into balance for townhomes and detached homes (sales-to-active ratios: 18% and 12% respectively); and favouring sellers slightly for apartments. Benchmark prices dropped for the fourth consecutive month, most notably for detached homes which ended the month with a benchmark price of $1,594,400, down 10.2% since peaking in March 2022. Residential combined properties benchmark prices are up year-over-year by 18.1 per cent. Clearly the biggest gain earlier this year is seeing more of a pull back.

Vancouver Westside: There were only 368 total residential sales in July, down 18% from a month earlier to the lowest July level in at least four years. The Westside now has a 15-month supply of detached houses on the market, signally a buyer’s market in this sector. The July benchmark price of the 43 detached house sales was down 3.4% from June 2022 to $3,381,800. That is a drop of about $115,000 in a single month. Total active listings were 2,453 at month end compared to 2,558 at that time last year and down 3% from June 2022. New listings in July were down 23% compared to June 2022 and lowest level since at least July 2019. Condominiums now dominate the Westside, accounting for 294 sales in July at a benchmark price of $844,300.

Vancouver East Side: As the Broadway subway, the new St. Paul’s Hospital medical campus and a growing tech sector take shape in the area, the East Side could be the right side for investors this year. The median price of the 101 detached house sales sold in July was $1,790,000, almost exactly half the house price on the Westside. The East Side is a rare market where developers continue to assemble residential lots for higher-density strata (there are at least six land assemblies underway) and rentals. The July sales-to-listing ratio for detached houses was 39%, with condo sales ratios at 53%. With 1,191 total active listings and just 198 sales in July, there is an opportunity to find very good investments amid a healthy inventory. Look to the East 12th and Renfrew area and Commercial Drive to Main Street for condo rental and detached-house investor opportunities. The inventory of total residential listings is up to 6 month’s supply in a market seeking balance but favouring sellers.

North Vancouver: North Vancouver appears to have lot of construction underway, but nearly all the apartment starts this year are rentals, including 536 of the 750 new apartments. Actually, new strata starts are at near record lows. This is a concern, because new listings were down 35% in July compared to a month earlier and the total inventory of homes for sale is at just 573, while the sales ratio was running at 57%, up from 43% in June 2022. In July, 44 houses sold at a median price of just over $2 million, virtually unchanged from June but up $125,000 from a year earlier. With only a 3-month supply of listings on the market and steady prices, North Vancouver remains a seller’s market.

West Vancouver: With 30 of the total 43 sales in July, detached houses remain the draw for buyers in Metro’s most exclusive community. The benchmark price of a detached house in West Vancouver dropped 3.3% in July from a month earlier, yet remained at $3,376,200, second highest behind the Westside. Condo prices in West Vancouver, however, posted the biggest price drop – 6% – in Metro over the past three months, to $1,243,300. With total July sales down from a month and a year earlier and the inventory up to a 12-month supply, a mild buyer’s market is emerging in this aspirational market.

Richmond: Perhaps no other Metro market will feel the sting of a two-year foreign homebuyer ban as much as multicultural Richmond. The ban is to begin January 1, 2023, though surveys show that foreign-home buyers now account for only 1% of transactions. The ban has notable exemptions for permanent residents and temporary residents, including temporary workers and international students. Still, Richmond sales were down 44% in July from June 2022 and 48% lower than in July of last year, to just 223 transactions. The composite benchmark price is $1,162,400 after declining 3.2% over the last three months. Active listings were at 1,356 at month end compared to 1,380 at the end of June 2022. Total supply of residential listings is up to 6-month’s supply, which signals a balanced market, and the sales-to-listing rate is a very balanced 52%. Richmond could go either way, but we believe it could tilt into a buyer’s market this fall.

Burnaby East: Burnaby East is a fine family neighbourhood with two large parks, good schools, transit and shopping but it was looked over by buyers in July. 
Total housing sales were just 22, down 52% from a year earlier to the lowest monthly level this year. However, with a very tight supply – just 68 total listings – new listings down 42% from a year ago and a sales-to-listing ratio of 67%, this remains a seller’s market. Composite prices have been dropping for three months and were down 2.1% from June 2022 at $1,154,200; detached house have declined to $1,805,400, the lowest in Burnaby.

Burnaby North: With U.K.-based Grosvenor proceeding with a 7.9-acre land assembly in Brentwood for a “car-free” high-density rental and condo development, and Shape Properties marketing its sixth tower in the area, high-rise condos will continue to define Burnaby North. In July, the benchmark condo price was unchanged from June 2022 at $734,800, but 15% higher than a year earlier. The biggest price drop has been in townhouses, which shed 4% from June 2022 to a $942,600 benchmark. Total housing sales, at 124, were down 37% from a year earlier and lower than in both May and June of this year. Despite the surging condo construction, there is only a total inventory of 4 month’s supply of total listings and the sales-to-listing ratio is holding steady at 51%. This is seller’s market, with slightly lower prices.

Burnaby South: With the sales-to-listing ratio at 61% in July, local buyers may be surprised that sales were down 12% from a month earlier and 38% below July 2021, at 126 transactions. Yet, prices are also down, posting the biggest drops in Burnaby this year. Detached house prices are down 7.2% from June 2022, at $2,108,600; townhouse prices are down nearly 5% at $990,500. July condominium benchmark prices were off 3.2% from three months earlier, at $778,600. New Listings in July were down 27% compared to June 2022 and 24% lower compared to July 2021. This is technically a seller’s market but it is leaning towards a buyer’s price advantage.

New Westminster: The July composite home benchmark price in the Royal City was $834,200 after falling 3.7% since April to the lowest price in Greater Vancouver, below even Maple Ridge and the Sunshine Coast, both of which are much further from Vancouver’s SkyTrain network. A detached house in New Westminster is now benchmarked at $1,487,200, down 8.2% from three months earlier. Condo apartment prices are holding steady at $661,500 as are townhouses, down just 0.7% from June 2020 at $945,300.

Total July sales reached 82 transactions, down 50% from a year earlier and 26% below June 2020. Total inventory is 293 listings, which equates to about a 4-month supply at the current sales pace, which is posting a sales-to-listing ratio of 55%. Buyers may find some lower-priced deals in New Westminster this summer, but we expect the market to firm in September.

Coquitlam: Total housing sales have cooled sharply, dropping 25% in July from a month earlier and down 51% from a year earlier. Blame it on the summer heat, perhaps, but new listings are also fading, down 23% from June. The sales ratio is sitting at 50% and there is about a 5-month supply of active listings in what has become a balanced market. Benchmark prices for detached houses have fallen 5.5% since April to $1,853,500. Townhouse prices have been dropping 2% per month since March to reach $1,080,700 in July. Half of the new listings sold in July and we expect family-friendly Coquitlam home sales to pick up after kids are back in school.

Port Moody: Total units sold in July were 45 – down from 57 (21%) in June 2022, and down 52% from July 2021. Active Listings were at 203 at month end compared to 161 at that time last year and 218 (down 7%) at the end of June; New Listings in July are down 31% compared to June 2022, but unchanged from a year earlier. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio is 54% compared to 48% in June 2022. The composite benchmark price has slipped down about 2% from April to $1,197,300.

Port Coquitlam: Total units in July were 71 – down from 94 (24%) in June 2022 and 31% lower than in July 2021. Sales were also lower than in July 2020 and July 2019.
Active listings have held steady for two months at 212, representing a 3-month supply.
The sales ratio is at 52%. PoCo is having a quiet summer, but this remains a seller’s market with some bargain prices surfacing: the composite benchmark price has fallen 8.7% over the past three months to $946,100; and detached house prices are down 12% so far this year to $1,395,500.

Pitt Meadows: Pitt Meadows had been one of the hot markets during the pandemic, but things change. Total housing sales this July, at 22, were down from both May and June of this year and 44% below July 2021. Active listings were 91 at the end of July, nearly double the 54 in July of last year, and new listings are up 31% from a year earlier. Detached-house benchmark prices have been falling since January and were down 9.3% from April to $1,335,900 in July. However, with a sales-to-listing ratio of 45% – compared to a sizzling 100% a year earlier – and about 4-month’s supply of homes on the market, this remains a seller’s advantage in a slow summer.

Maple Ridge: The benchmark detached house price in Maple Ridge apparently peaked in January and has been dropping ever since, down 8.7% since April to $1,343,800, which is also 3.4% lower than the start of this year. We may see more price corrections. Total sales in July were down 20% from June 2020 at 110 transactions, and 43% lower than in July 2021. Meanwhile, active listings increased to 638, up from 386 in July 2021. Maple Ridge is balanced and leaning towards a buyer’s market, with the sales-to-listing ratio dropping to 38% and a 6-month’s supply of homes for sale.

Ladner: Ladner is remaking its downtown and the waterfront village has perhaps too many summer distractions since homebuyers took a breather in July. Housing sales dropped 55% from month earlier and were down 67% from July 2021, one of the biggest declines in the Metro region. Total listings are rising and the sales-to-listing ratio is at 32%. This is a buyer’s market, with the composite home price falling steadily for six months and down 1.7% from a month earlier in July at $1,169,300, with an estimated 9-month’s supply of homes for sale.

Tsawwassen: With the popular Southlands development, townhouses have been one of the top housing sectors in Tsawwassen this year. We were seeing multiple bids in April and May of this year. Buyers will have noticed that prices have dropped since, with the typical townhouse selling in July for $989,600, the lowest price since January and down 4.6% since April. Detached house prices are also at the lowest level in 2022, down nearly 8% from three months ago, to $1,595,700. This is reflected in a sales decline, with July transactions of 40 homes down 30% from a month earlier and 52% below July 2021. We consider this a balanced market, with a 6-month’s supply and the sale success ratio at 50% in July, down from a ratio of 89% in the hot market of July 2021.

Surrey: B.C.’s second largest city has seen a dramatic shift in its housing market this year. Starts of new condos and townhouses have plunged 75% this year, dropping from 2,105 in the first six months of 2021 to just 509 units so far in 2022. Condo starts fell 77% year-to-year, based on CMHC data. July detached sales were down a startling 64% from July 2021 and were down 25.4% from June 2020 as the average price dropped 5.8% month-to-month to $1,662,928. Listings are down from 30% to 63% from a year earlier in the six Surrey neighbourhoods, but prices are holding steady in the townhouse ($876,500) and condo ($540,651) sectors. We are calling Surrey a buyer’s market that could get very active over the next few months.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“On the other side of a storm is the strength that comes from having navigated through it. Raise your sail and begin.“

Gregory S. Williams

Buyer’s emerging with a market advantage

Highlights of the June Report

• Biggest drop in month-over-month house price Port Coquitlam down 5.9%
• Biggest increase in month-over-month house price: West Vancouver, up 0.4%
• Total housing starts are down 45% so far this year compared to 2021, at 24,531.
• Composite home price in Greater Vancouver is $186,900 higher than in June 2020

It is not the change that we have seen in Metro Vancouver’s residential market but the speed of that change that has caught so many off guard. After two years of near-record sale and price increases, purchasers scrambling to top competing bids and a dramatic shortage of housing that has senior governments trying to speed new home construction, the current calm comes across as a bit unnerving.

Yet, when you dig down into the numbers, it reveals a very stable market that is gently shifting from a balanced environment to one favouring buyers – but not all markets are reacting the same. Still, the physiological effects should not be understated, and it will take some time for sellers and buyers to process it all.

We see it in homebuyers emerging into markets which are now tilted in their favour. Rather than facing multiple offers, they now enjoy multiple properties to choose from. Rather than concern about missing out, they can now be confident of getting into Canada’s most dynamic and rewarding housing market.

Half-way into this year, the June benchmark composite home price is $1,235,900, down 2% from May and 2.2% lower than three months ago. The benchmark is up 12.4% from a year ago, however, and is $186,400 higher than it was in June 2020 as the super cycle began.

There were 2,466 residential properties sold of all types in Greater Vancouver in June this year compared with 2,947 sold last month, 3,824 sales in June last year, 2,497 sold in June 2020 and 2,098 sold in June 2019 (the end of the last down cycle in the real estate market). These are not dramatic sale swings. June’s downturn in sales is a minor correction from the 10-year June average and was expected following three increases in the Bank of Canada lending rates since March. (A fourth is expected July 13).

The market remains active, just at different levels with the advantage now shifting to buyers. The lower end of the market is still a struggle for lack of inventory and continued strong demand, however.

The slowdown in sales is not yet creating a large surplus of homes for sale, as some sellers are holding off as they prepare for summer vacations with reduced COVID-19 restrictions and new housing starts remaining below demand.

June saw 5,410 new listings come to the Greater Vancouver market which was below the 6,491 added in May 2022 and less than the 5,981 new listings in June 2021. The number of new listings in June were 3.5% below the 10-year average (down from 4% above the 10-year average a month earlier). The total number of active listings rose to 10,839 at the end of June compared to 10,389 at the end of May.

The rate of increase was only 4% above the total in May compared to the 13% increase in active listings from April to May.

The inventory build-up is seen in the detached housing market, where the sales-to-active- listing ratio in June was 14.3%, as compared to 31.5% for townhomes and 30.2% for condo apartments.
In most areas and especially at higher price points, it is already a buyer’s market for detached houses. Vancouver’s Westside detached sector has a 10 month’s supply available currently, West Vancouver is sitting with 14 months of inventory, Richmond 8 months and Whistler/Pemberton with a 10 month’s supply. Again, on the higher-price side, Vancouver’s Westside has seen townhouses and condos go up to 5 month’s supply from 3 months. What a switch and opportunity from a year ago. Buyers, your time is now!

Outlier markets

As we have noted previously, outlier suburban markets that had led the sale and price parade are now seeing the biggest price corrections. Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, for example, saw the composite benchmark home price fall about 3.8% from May to June, compared to a 2% decline across all Greater Vancouver.

In the Fraser Valley, June benchmark detached house prices dropped 5.5% month-over-month in Cloverdale, 3.8% in White Rock/South Surrey and were down 4.4% in North Delta. In South Delta, the June median price for a detached-house price fell $100,000 from May to $1,499,000.

As pandemic measures ease, the revival of big-city events and more people returning to the office may convince more homebuyers to purchase closer to Vancouver, especially if city prices continue to moderate.

Other takeaways from the June market reveal the truth that real estate is regional, with contrasting performance among Metro municipalities.

• Richmond sales in June are on par with May, townhouse sales were up 33% and months of supply dropped down to 3. Active listings for townhouses dropped 8% from last month – an anomaly in the market.
• New Westminster also saw active listing totals drop from May to June – new listings were down more so than other areas and demand was strong. One of the highest absorption rates in Greater Vancouver.
• Coquitlam saw sluggish sales for townhouses in June while condo sales were strong resulting in a drop in the number of active listings.
• Port Moody had the same number of total sales in June as May with 29% less new listings with townhouses back down to 1 month supply.
• Port Coquitlam saw more sales in June, even in the detached market which resulted in a 20% drop in the number of active listings, but detached benchmark prices fell 5.9% from May, the sharpest decline in Greater Vancouver.
• Ladner saw a drop in average prices of close to 25% with the lower end of the market driving it thus producing less volume of dollar sales.
• Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge continue to see increases in the number of active listings over last year – the outlier for this in Greater Vancouver.

Despite the moderating sales, the supply of housing remains a major concern. B.C. is seeing record levels of immigration and the provincial unemployment rate is 4.6% – which equates to near full employment and the second-best rate in Canada, so the demand for homeownership will increase. Yet housing starts in Metro Vancouver (which includes Langley and Surrey) were just 24, 531 as of June 1, down 45% from the 44,966 starts as of June 1, 2021 – and nearly 30% of new starts this year are rentals.

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver: Total June housing sales, at 2,466, were down 16% from May to the lowest monthly level this year, down 36% from June 2021. Active listings were at 10,839 at month end compared to 11,359 at that time last year and 10,389 (up 4%) at the end of May; New listings in June were down 17% compared to May 2022 and 10% lower compared to June 2021. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 46% compared to 45%. The benchmark composite in June was $1,235,900, down 2% from May and 2.2% lower than three months earlier. Detached house prices have declined 1.8% over the past three months to $2,058,600, while June townhouse prices, at $1,115,600, were off 2.2% from May. Condo apartment prices were down 1.7% in June from a month earlier, at $766,300. Interestingly, the overall composite home price in Greater Vancouver is now about $210,000 higher than in June 2020, when the super cycle was beginning, but the number of sales is almost exactly the same.

Fraser Valley: The Valley market is experiencing a more dramatic change than Greater Vancouver. In June, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,281 sales, a decrease of 5.8% compared to May and a 43% decrease compared to June of last year. This June ended with a total active inventory of 6,474, a 4.7% increase compared to May, and 18.3% more than June 2021. Prices are also in play: the benchmark detached house price in June was down 3.5% from May at $1,653,000; townhouse prices dipped 2.7% from May to $894,300 and condo apartment prices fell 2.2% from a month earlier to $568,700.

“The combination of higher rates and low inventory will present a barrier to first-time buyers and could result in even slower sales over the coming months and erase price gains from the past 10 months or so,” cautioned Baldev Gill, chief executive officer of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.  Compared to June 2020, benchmark detached house prices in the Valley are up $658,500; townhouse prices are $304,700 higher and the typical condo apartment has increased in value by $133,400.

Vancouver Westside: For all of us who aspire to a detached house on the prestigious Westside, that potential has increased slightly over the past few weeks. With detached sales down 23% in June from a month earlier, to 448 transactions, the benchmark price has increased just 3.7% from a year ago, the lowest for detached houses in Greater Vancouver markets. At $3,499,700, the benchmark price was down 1% from three months earlier. While shifting to a buyer’s market in June, the detached house market remains tight, with new listings down to 206 houses in June from 253 a month earlier. Meanwhile total residential sales on the Westside in June reached 448, down 21% from June 2021, with both townhome and condo apartment sales lower than a month earlier. The median townhouse price was $1,405,0000, while 323 condos sold at a median of $828,000. The total inventory of residential listings is up to a 6 month’s supply and the sale-to-listings ratio in June was 42% compared to 46% in May 2022 and 48% in June 2021.

Vancouver East Side: More detached houses are selling on the East Side than any other market in Greater Vancouver, with 77 transactions in June at a benchmark price of $1,904,000, a price down 2.2% from a month earlier and about $1.5 million less than in the neighbouring Westside and less expensive than houses in Richmond, the North Shore and Port Moody. With a relatively large inventory, with 253 new listings in June, this is a welcoming market with perhaps the best upside potential in the region. The new Vancouver Plan envisions higher density close to the new Broadway Skytrain and Millennium Line which will fuel detached lot assemblies and higher house prices on the East Side. Total residential sales in June, at 265, were down 17% from May and 41% lower than in June 2021. Condo apartment sales lead the East Side market, with 1,058 units sold in the last six months, including 137 in June at a median price of $680,000, a price that is higher than in May 2022 and from a year earlier, which is rare in Greater Vancouver. This remains a seller’s markets, despite active listings rising from May to 1,210 homes to June. June’s sales-to-listing ratio was a healthy 46% and new listings slipped 15% compared to a month and a year earlier.

North Vancouver: Existing condos and apartments may be the best strata buy in North Vancouver District because new “climate ready’ building codes will make construction more expensive. District council decided July 4 that anyone seeking to rezone a lot for higher-density housing will have to show an accounting for the embodied carbon in their project, which will be monitored over the life cycle of the project. This new policy, combined with strict new ventilation and air conditioning regulations will add considerable cost to new strata and rental buildings. (Wood emits less carbon than concrete, but wood prices have soared this year.) North Vancouver condo sales were down sharply in June, dropping to 97 transactions, down from 154 in May and 135 in June 2021. At $819,600 in June, the benchmark price for a condo was down 2.6% from a month earlier. Townhome prices are also tracking lower, down 4.3% from three months ago, to $1,347,200. Detached-house prices, benchmarked at $2,325,800, are down nearly 4% over the past three months. The supply of total residential listings is up to 3 months in this modest seller’s market, where the sales-to-listings ratio is running at 43%.

West Vancouver: Despite the turmoil in the Lower Mainland market, West Vancouver’s detached house prices appears bullet-proof. The benchmark house price in June was $3,490,000, up 5.3% from three months earlier to lead Metro Vancouver in price appreciation. Detached house sales in West Vancouver, at 32, were down from 46 in May. In the first six months of this year, 284 detached houses have sold, down from 405 in the same period last year. West Vancouver is now a buyer’s market for detached houses. There is in fact a swelling inventory of West Vancouver total listings, with a 10 month’s supply as of June and a sales-to-listing ratio falling to 30%, down from 42% a year ago.

Richmond: We have seen price reductions in Richmond recently, but the benchmark composite home price held fairly steady in June at $1,187,000, down just 1.2% from three months earlier. Total residential sales in June were 337, unchanged from May 2022 but down 29% from a year earlier.

Active Listings were at 1,380 at month end compared to 1,613 at that time last year and 1,385 (down 0.5%) at the end of May 2022. The inventory of total residential listings is steady at a 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions), with a sales to listings ratio of 54%.

Burnaby East: Burnaby East has the lowest detached house prices in Burnaby, and benchmark prices slipped again in June, dropping 3.8% from May after falling 6.1% over the previous three months. Total home sales in June were down 17% from May and nearly 50% lower than in June 2021. This is technically a seller’s market, with a 63% sales-to-listing ratio and lower inventory, with just 81 active listings as of the end of June for the second month in a row. Condo prices remain the highest in Burnaby, at $816,700 in June, but the benchmark price was down 2.3% from May 2022.

Burnaby North: Brentwood in North Burnaby is one of the largest high-rise condo construction sites in B.C., with the sixth tower now rising after the first five sold out. Grosvenor Canada is also developing 7.8 acres for 900 condos and 2,000 rental units. Condos are the big play in North Burnaby but the high supply has kept benchmark prices in check, dropping to $740,500 in June, virtually unchanged from three months earlier. Burnaby North detached house prices are holding firm at $2,128,000 in June, up 1.8% in three-months and 17.4% higher than a year earlier. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply with a sales to listings ratio at a healthy 52% in this seller’s market.

Burnaby South: Total Units Sold in June were 144 – down 12% from May 2022, and down from 217 (34%) in June 2021. New Listings in June were down 7% compared to May 2022 and 20% lower compared to June 2021. The composite home price has been declining an average of 2.3% per month since April and is now at $1,149,100. There is an estimated 3 month’s supply of total listings and this seller’s market is seeing a sales-to-listing ratio of 51%.

New Westminster: Earlier this year, less than acre in uptown New Westminster zoned for high-density housing sold for $27.5 million – an indication of the potential being seen in the Royal City. We see this as promising market, especially right now. The composite benchmark home price is $845,300, down 2.4% from three months ago to the lowest level in Greater Vancouver. Condos are selling for $663,900, nearly $100,000 below the Greater Vancouver average; and detached house prices, at $1,541,100 in June, were down nearly 6% from April and down 4% from May. This is a technically a seller’s market, with a 60% sales-to-listing, but I would advise buyers to take a close look at New Westminster for true housing value.

Coquitlam: Total housing sales in June were 189, down 23% from May and 43% lower than June 2021. The composite home price, meanwhile, dropped 3.9% from May to $1,154,200, while detached prices fell by the same amount to $1,874,100.

Active Listings were at 642 in June, compared to 745 at that time last year and 642 at the end of May; The June sales-to-listings ratio was 51% compared to 53% in May 2022 and 72% in June 2021. This remains a seller’s market, despite recent drops in sales and prices.

Port Moody: Sales of detached houses were down 50% in June, to 14, compared to June 2021, but the detached house price remains 22% higher than a year ago at $2,201,300, the highest in the Tri-Cities. This reflects the higher values seen in the Belcarra neighbourhood. Port Moody remains very much a seller’s market. Total housing sales in June were 57 – the same as in May 2022, but down from 40% from June 2021. Active Listings were at 218 at month end compared to 203 at that time last year and 209 at the end of May; Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 4 month’s supply and the sales-to-listings ratio is 48% compared to 34% in May 2022.

Port Coquitlam: Detached house prices have been tracking down for three months and dropped 5.9% from May to a June benchmark of $1,427,900. Condo prices are holding firm at $648,300, virtually unchanged since March. Total housing sales in June reached 94, up from 91 in May 2022, but down 33% from June 2021, The inventory of total residential listings is down to a 2 month’s supply and the June sales to listings ratio of 61% compares to 43% in May 2022 and 84% in June 2021 in this seller’s market.

Pitt Meadows: The composite home benchmark price was down 3.9% in June from a month earlier, at $988,000, after tracking down 2.1% per month since the end of March. Total units old in June were 23 – down from 24 (4%) in May 2022 and down from 60 (62%) in June 2021. Active listings were at 98 at month end compared to 65 at that time last year and 84 (up 17%) at the end of May. June’s sales to listings ratio was 38% compared to 30% in May 2022 and 73% in June 2021 in this calming market.

Maple Ridge: The housing market has cooled considerably, with total sales down 45% in June from the same month last year and falling 24% month-over-month in June to just 135 transactions, Detached house prices dropped 7.1% from March to $1,379,700. June townhouse prices are down 3% from May at $833,400, with condo prices down 1.8% to $564,300. New listings in June were down 10% compared to May 2022, but up 49% compared to June 2021. The sales-to-listings ratio was 32% in June, compared to 39% in May 2022 and 89% in June 2021.

Ladner: Total homes sold in June were 29 – up from 28 (4%) in May 2022 but down from 52 (44%) in June 2021. The composite home price in June, at $1,189,200, was down 3.6% from May but still 16.6% higher than a year earlier. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 53% compares to 42% in May 2022 and 64% in June 2021.

Tsawwassen: This is primarily a detached market, but detached house prices fell 2.7% in June from a month earlier to $1,687,700. Total housing sales in June were 40, down 9% from May and a sharp 43% drop from June 2021. Total active listings had been holding steady at 175, but new listings dropped 30% from May and were down 21% compared to Jube 2021.The sales-to-listing ratio is a respectable 51%, as it appears that the seller’s advantage is holding.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“You may delay, but time will not.”

Benjamin Franklin

This housing cycle is ending. What’s next?

The sales super cycle that the Metro Vancouver housing market has been in for two years is ending. It is nearly over in Fraser Valley, where March sales were down 22.5% from a year earlier and average prices dropped nearly 6% from February 2022, and similarly in Greater Vancouver where home sales were down 25% from March 2021 and averages prices were down 13%. A sure sign that the lower end of the market is thriving more.

This does not mean a major market correction is coming. It does mean that we could be moving back to a calmer, more friendly environment for homebuyers, which would be a welcome relief to many. March saw a number of Greater Vancouver buyers moving quickly to purchase before the next round of lending rate increase, but we expect the sales and price increases to slow in the months ahead comparative to where we have been. Housing sales in March across Greater Vancouver totalled 4,405, down 25% from March 2021, but a 27% increase from February 2022 and 31% above the 10-year March sales average.

More listings were added in March, with 6,802 new listings, still down 20% from a year earlier but 20% above the 10-year average. There were 7,970 total active listings on the Greater Vancouver market at month end which further dropped to 7,851 at the start of April as some listings expired. The after-spring break activity brought an increase of listings to the market that will continue as we move through April.

However, we are still sitting with just a 2-month’s supply of homes available for sale in most areas, with North Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Tsawwassen, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Squamish all at or less than a 1 month’s supply. And while townhouses continue to be the most challenging type of property to find across the region, apartments are fast becoming a scarce product. Even on Vancouver’s West Side, there are only 2-month’s supply of apartments and areas such as Vancouver East and Richmond have dropped down to 1 month supply. It’s even worse in Pitt Meadows where this is half a month’s supply (7 apartments for sale, down from 22 last March), just over half a month’s supply in Maple Ridge and only 6 apartments available for sale in Ladner, again under 1 month’s supply. The number of apartment sales in Coquitlam in March were actually the highest we’ve seen in March at 211, eclipsing the previous high of 187 in March 2021.

It will take a surge in new listings to get this market back to balance, but the question is, will that happen and if so, when? Realistically we would need to see 15,000 to 18,000 active listings to get to a balanced market.

The rest of 2022 may look a lot like it did just before a global pandemic created the most dramatic counterintuitive housing boom this region has ever seen. We seem to forget that, in 2019, Greater Vancouver March housing starts had plunged 31% from a year earlier and were averaging about 1,800 transactions per month, less than half of what they are today. When 2020 started, we saw the market firing at the 10-year average. Perhaps average would be welcome to many.

The true test of the market will be over the next month as interest rates continue to rise, with the Bank of Canada making its next announcement on April 13. It’s a forgone conclusion that the overnight rate will increase. It just remains to be seen whether it will be up 0.25% or 0.5%, thereby increasing variable rate mortgages. Fixed interest rate mortgages have been on the rise with a 5-year interest rate now approaching 4%. Since the federal mortgage stress test qualifying rate is 2% higher, it will be nearly 6% on a 5-year rate. That negatively affects a borrower’s debt-service ratio and their purchasing power.

There are other signs of a cooling market. Continued lack of supply is keeping buyers from being able to find their next home and list their current one. Despite record-setting demand and prices, B.C. housing starts decreased by 4,000 to 31,300 new homes, seasonally adjusted, in February 2022 from a month earlier. Metro Vancouver home starts are down 23% so far this year, compared to 2021. A key reason is developers’ fear of proceeding with projects because of soaring construction costs, especially for wood frame multi-family.

Then there is the uncanny ability for the government to bring in new regulations just when they are not needed. The B.C. finance minister has confirmed that a mandatory ‘cooling-off’ period is coming as their way to protect buyers, especially when competing in multiple offers, which could very well be at a reduced level by the time the legislation is law. The rules will then stick around and simply frustrate buyers and sellers. This in effect will give a buyer a period of days to reconsider their offer and walk away from it. While no details were provided, a monetary penalty could be part of that ability to walk away, which in effect would lock in first time buyers and those without the resources to utilize that strategy. The other option is complete freedom to walk away, but imagine how many properties would be tied up in that process and the potential confusion of that. In an already supplied starved market, what purpose will this really serve? And through all this, there are still some that contend we don’t have a housing supply crisis and in fact supply is keeping pace with population growth. These two wrongs certainly don’t make a right. Mechanisms to supposedly limit demand and a contention that supply isn’t an issue will only further exacerbate the issues we see in the housing market.

Finally, we are seeing price exhaustion. This is apparent now in outlier suburbs, which had seen dramatic price hikes since 2020, but we will also see price increases slowing in central areas, at least through the first half of 2022. Prices can only go up so much.

If you thinking of selling, list now. If you are buying, enjoy the greater selection on the market.

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver: Total housing sales in March were 4,405 – up 27% from February 2022 and down 25% from March 2021. Active Listings were 7,970 at month end compared to 9,633 at that time last year and 7,062 at the end of February. New listings in March were up 22% compared to February 2022, but down 20% compared to March 2021. The sales to listings ratio of 65% compares to 62% in February 2022 and 69% in March 2021. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,360,500, is up 20.7% year-over-year and 3.6% higher than in February. A typical detached house now sells for an all-time high of $2,118,600, up 23.4% from March of 2021.

Vancouver Westside: Total Units Sold in March were 800 – up from 665 (20%) in February 2022, up from 445 (80%) in January 2022, down from 883 (9%) in March 2021, up from 467 (71%) in March 2020 and up from 333 (140%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 2,065 at month end compared to 2,124 at that time last year and 1,942 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 24% compared to February 2022, down 10% compared to March 2021, up 61% compared to March 2020 and up 37% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 59% compared to 61% in February 2022, 59% in March 2021, 55% in March 2020 and 34% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,469,200, is up 10.3% year-over-year and 2.7% higher than in February.

Vancouver East Side: Total Units Sold in March were 497 – up from 359 (38%) in February 2022, up from 257 (93%) in January 2022, down from 661 (25%) in March 2021, up from 297 (67%) in March 2020 and up from 174 (186%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 946 at month end compared to 1,027 at that time last year and 891 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 13% compared to February 2022, down 27% compared to March 2021, up 58% compared to March 2020 and up 44% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 68% compared to 55% in February 2022, 66% in March 2021, 64% in March 2020 and 34% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,348,800, is up 14.8% year-over-year and 3.4% higher than in February.

North Vancouver: Total Units Sold in March were 345 – up from 261 (32%) in February 2022, up from 143 (141%) in January 2022, down from 470 (27%) in March 2021, up from 204 (69%) in March 2020 and up from 165 (109%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 432 at month end compared to 572 at that time last year and 380 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 20% compared to February 2022, down 31% compared to March 2021, up 37% compared to March 2020 and up 25% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 70% compared to 64% in February 2022, 66% in March 2021, 57% in March 2020 and 42% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,418,900, is up 19.9% year-over-year and 3.2% higher than in February.

West Vancouver: Total Units Sold in March were 87 – up from 80 (9%) in February 2022, up from 45 (93%) in January 2022, down from 148 (41%) in March 2021, up from 56 (55%) in March 2020 and up from 34 (156%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 423 at month end compared to 491 at that time last year and 417 at the end of February; New Listings in March were down 16% compared to February 2022, down 37% compared to March 2021, up 9% compared to March 2020 and up 9% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 5 month’s supply (seller’s to balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 47% compared to 37% in February 2022, 51% in March 2021, 33% in March 2020 and 20% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $2,677,500, is up 7.7% year-over-year and 2.7% higher than in February.

Richmond: Total Units Sold in March were 557 – up from 397 (40%) in February 2022, up from 340 (64%) in January 2022, down from 768 (28%) in March 2021, up from 337 (65%) in March 2020 and up from 178 (212%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 1,076 at month end compared to 1,411 at that time last year and 924 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 26% compared to February 2022, down 18% compared to March 2021, up 69% compared to March 2020 and up 31% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 63% compared to 62% in February 2022, 56% in March 2021, 64% in March 2020 and 27% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,249,500, is up 20.2% year-over-year and 3.0% higher than in February.

Burnaby East: Total Units Sold in March were 56 – up from 34 (65%) in February 2022, up from 25 (124%) in January 2022, down from 70 (20%) in March 2021, up from 27 (107%) in March 2020 and up from 17 (229%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 59 at month end compared to 100 at that time last year and 56 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 3% compared to February 2022, down 34% compared to March 2021, up 40% compared to March 2020 and up 31% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 84% compared to 52% in February 2022, 69% in March 2021, 56% in March 2020 and 33% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,282,300, is up 24.8% year-over-year and 4.0% higher than in February.

Burnaby North: Total Units Sold in March were 257 – up from 226 (14%) in February 2022, up from 142 (81%) in January 2022, down from 335 (23%) in March 2021, up from 130 (98%) in March 2020 and up from 77 (233%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 315 at month end compared to 461 at that time last year and 283 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 13% compared to February 2022, down 22% compared to March 2021, up 59% compared to March 2020 and up 57% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 73% compared to 72% in February 2022, 74% in March 2021, 59% in March 2020 and 34% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,262,100, is up 19.6% year-over-year and 3.2% higher than in February.

Burnaby South: Total Units Sold in March were 213 – up from 200 (7%) in February 2022, up from 150 (42%) in January 2022, down from 325 (34%) in March 2021, up from 143 (49%) in March 2020 and up from 97 (120%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 395 at month end compared to 565 at that time last year and 312 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 26% compared to February 2022, down 23% compared to March 2021, up 64% compared to March 2020 and up 117% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 59% compared to 70% in February 2022, 70% in March 2021, 65% in March 2020 and 33% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,192,400, is up 18.2% year-over-year and 3.0% higher than in February.

New Westminster: Total Units Sold in March were 204 – up from 159 (28%) in February 2022, up from 102 (100%) in January 2022, down from 245 (17%) in March 2021, up from 118 (73%) in March 2020 and up from 81 (152%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 215 at month end compared to 345 at that time last year and 190 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 15% compared to February 2022, down 22% compared to March 2021, up 30% compared to March 2020 and up 28% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 78% compared to 70% in February 2022, 73% in March 2021, 59% in March 2020 and 40% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $846,000, is up 23.0% year-over-year and 3.6% higher than in February.

Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in March were 400 – up from 264 (52%) in February 2022, up from 174 (130%) in January 2022, down from 462 (13%) in March 2021, up from 202 (98%) in March 2020 and up from 142 (182%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 508 at month end compared to 574 at that time last year and 419 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 36% compared to February 2022, down 2% compared to March 2021, up 55% compared to March 2020 and up 47% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 66% compared to 59% in February 2022, 74% in March 2021, 52% in March 2020 and 35% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,325,900, is up 27.7% year-over-year and 4.8% higher than in February.

Port Moody: Total Units Sold in March were 107 – up from 87 (23%) in February 2022, up from 57 (88%) in January 2022, down from 134 (20%) in March 2021, up from 54 (98%) in March 2020 and up from 38 (182%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 121 at month end compared to 162 at that time last year and 97 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 25% compared to February 2022, down 19% compared to March 2021, up 44% compared to March 2020 and up 58% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 71% compared to 73% in February 2022, 72% in March 2021, 52% in March 2020 and 40% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,256,300, is up 24.9% year-over-year and 6.7% higher than in February.

Port Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in March were 141 – up from 108 (31%) in February 2022, up from 77 (83%) in January 2022, down from 205 (31%) in March 2021, up from 96 (47%) in March 2020 and up from 59 (139%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 146 at month end compared to 209 at that time last year and 102 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 37% compared to February 2022, down 33% compared to March 2021, up 48% compared to March 2020 and up 25% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 67% compared to 71% in February 2022, 65% in March 2021, 68% in March 2020 and 35% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,146,600, is up 28.9% year-over-year and 5.6% higher than in February.

Pitt Meadows: Total Units Sold in March were 55 – up from 35 (57%) in February 2022, up from 30 (83%) in January 2022, up from 53 (4%) in March 2021, up from 35 57%) in March 2020 and up from 24 (129%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 53 at month end compared to 53 at that time last year and 37 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 62% compared to February 2022, up 3% compared to March 2021, up 23% compared to March 2020 and up 47% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is just under 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 67% compared to 70% in February 2022, 67% in March 2021, 53% in March 2020 and 43% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,142,600, is up 32.4% year-over-year and 5.1% higher than in February.

Maple Ridge: Total Units Sold in March were 264 – up from 224 (18%) in February 2022, up from 124 (113%) in January 2022, down from 437 (40%) in March 2021, up from 170 (55%) in March 2020 and up from 116 (128%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 390 at month end compared to 398 at that time last year and 301 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 22% compared to February 2022, down 19% compared to March 2021, up 47% compared to March 2020 and up 69% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 60% compared to 62% in February 2022, 80% in March 2021, 57% in March 2020 and 44% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,275,300, is up 37.3% year-over-year and 5.4% higher than in February.

Ladner: Total Units Sold in March were 46 – up from 26 (77%) in February 2022, up from 22 (109%) in January 2022, down from 104 (56%) in March 2021, up from 32 (44%) in March 2020 and up from 25 (149%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 79 at month end compared to 115 at that time last year and 62 at the end of February; New Listings in March were up 28% compared to February 2022, down 45% compared to March 2021, up 9% compared to March 2020 and down 5% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 63% compared to 46% in February 2022, 78% in March 2021, 48% in March 2020 and 32% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,247,800, is up 27.3% year-over-year and 2.9% higher than in February.

Tsawwassen: Total Units Sold in March were 78 – up from 73 (7%) in February 2022, up from 42 (86%) in January 2022, down from 106 (26%) in March 2021, up from 39 (100%) in March 2020 and up from 15 (420%) in March 2019; Active Listings were at 105 at month end compared to 166 at that time last year and 101 at the end of February; New Listings in March were down 8% compared to February 2022, down 33% compared to March 2021, up 24% compared to March 2020 and up 9% compared to March 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 82% compared to 72% in February 2022, 77% in March 2021, 52% in March 2020 and 18% in March 2019. The benchmark composite home price, at $1,356,100, is up 23.0% year-over-year and 3.1% higher than in February.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“If you have the courage to begin, you have the courage to succeed.”

David Viscott

So you need to buy a home. Now is a good time to do so.

There have always been challenges purchasing in one of the most expensive housing markets on the planet. It is still possible, though, to find the home or investment of your dreams in Metro Vancouver, and despite the headwinds, this is actually a good time to be purchasing, with the help of an experienced and connected real estate company.

The main challenge is finding a home to purchase.

The big question in today’s Metro Vancouver housing market is not ‘where will the new supply’ come from?’ but ‘why is there such a shortage of homes for sale?’ especially in an environment where buyer demand and price increases are at such a feverish pitch.

This past month we have seen houses and townhouses sell within days for well over the asking price. It is not uncommon for a single listing to attract a dozen or more offers.

The demand is coming from conventional buyers wanting to buy their first home or trying to move up to investors and families hoping to buy a second or perhaps a third property as a smart hedge against the highest inflation rate in more than 30 years. But let’s not forget, the investment properties become rentals for a starved rental market and allow developers to build more supply.

Caught in the headlights of this traffic is homeowners who are fearful that if they sell, they won’t be able to purchase a similar or better home because of the shortage of listings and the amazing price parity being seen across the region.

In January, for example, the benchmark price of a detached house was the almost exactly same on Bowen Island – $1.48 million – as in North Delta at $1.45 million. A typical townhouse sells zin Squamish, at $936,000, the same as the average price in the Fraser Valley. At just under $600,000, a Sunshine Coast condo apartment is priced at the same level as in New Westminster or Ladner or Cloverdale. This is the time when a great buyer’s agent is very much worth working with.

Why buy now?

• Low mortgage rates are a prime reason to move into the market as soon as you can.
  The first step is to get a pre-approved mortgage. It is no secret that lending rates will be rising this year, likely with the first Bank of Canada increase coming by March. Lock in a pre-approval home loan at today’s historical low rates, good for 90 days, right now.
• Restrictions coming: If you are an investor or are buying a second home, there is a very strong chance that the federal government is about to increase the down payment required, in a bid, it says, to curb speculation.
  Currently, about one in four homes in Canada is purchased as an investment. With home prices in Metro Vancouver rising about 25% over the past year, investing in real estate is naturally more popular here than in most of the country.
• Federal housing minister Ahmed Hussen said in a January statement: “By developing policies to curb excessive profits in investment properties … and reviewing the down payment requirements for investment properties, we are targeting the issues the market is facing from multiple angles.”
  Today, an investor can buy a home with a 20% down payment, but this could be increased to 25% or even higher. It is better to buy that investment condo, perhaps a suite for the university student in the family, or other secondary home now before tighter restrictions kick in.
• Then there is appreciation. The BC Real Estate Association forecast in January that the average home price in Metro Vancouver, now at $1.2 million, would increase a further 8.1 per cent this year, compared to 2021, and rise again by 3.2% by 2023.  This means that a typical buyer could make at least 10% or about $120,000 in appreciation over the next two years. Across the province the composite home price is predicted to top $1 million this year for the first time.
• Little competition: Finally, there is little fear of the Metro Vancouver housing market seeing a huge increase in supply. Listings of homes for sale have been declining for months and hit an all-time low in January as just 4,251 homes were added to the market, 19th lowest amount for the month of January. However, 2,329 homes sold, the third-highest for January sales in history.
• Despite all the government pledges to increase the supply of homes, total housing starts in Metro Vancouver last year reached 26,103 units while immigration to the area totaled more than 35,000 people.  One of the barriers to new detached house construction in Metro Vancouver is that average municipal fees and taxes on a new house which now total $199,000, according to a survey released by the Homebuilders Association of Vancouver in January.
  Short story is that when you buy a home this month, it will likely have little competition when you go to sell it or rent it. B.C. has only 425 housing units per 1,000 people in a country that has among the lowest average housing supply per capita in the G7. The Metro Vancouver rental vacancy rate is around 2% and the rental costs are the highest in Canada.

Unnecessary costs and delays continue to hurt supply and contribute to the added price of housing. In January, a local developer lamented that they have waited five years for building approval from the City of Vancouver on a project that includes 20% below-market homes around the SkyTrain. And while the city delayed building permits, they were also being charged $250,000 in annual Empty Home Taxes. This can make affordable rental projects financially unviable.

Highlights of this Report:

• Why now is the time to buy. Really.
• Only market where townhouse prices dropped from December 2021: Vancouver East Side (down 3% after a 21.5% increase in the previous 12 months) – expect that to swing the other way in the months to come as lack of available townhouses push prices up again.
• Greater Vancouver benchmark home price appreciation year-over-year: $234,900
• Biggest year-over-year detached house price increase: Surrey, up 43%
• Biggest year-over-year detached house sales decline: Surrey, down 38%

A summary of the January numbers:

Greater Vancouver: 

Total housing sales for the first month of 2022 were 2,329, which was down 15% from December and 5% lower than in January of last year.

But the slow sales are linked to a lack of inventory: active listings for the month reached just 5,987 properties, compared to 8,831 at that time last year and 5,588 at the end of December 2021. New listings in January were down 8% compared to January 2021, though up 6% compared to January 2020. The result was a sales-to-listing ratio of 55%, the highest for a January in two years, and sharply higher prices. The composite residential benchmark price in January – which combines all property types was $1,272,000, up 2% from a month earlier and 18.5% higher than in January 2021. This is a staggering annual cash increase of $234,900. The typical detached house sold in January for a record benchmark high of $1,953,000, up 22.7% – or $438,000 – from a year earlier. This level of performance is the best evidence of why there is such an insatiable demand for Greater Vancouver housing. Total housing starts across all of Metro Vancouver in 2021 were 26,013 homes, up just 3,000 starts from 2020. It is the townhouse sector that is seeing the highest demand and price growth, with a year-over-year increase of 24.3% in January to $1,029,000. Yet only 236 new townhouses began construction in January and 186 of these were in Surrey and Langley.

As January ended, the inventory of total residential listings was at a 3-month supply, signaling the seller’s market will continue.

Fraser Valley: 

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed a total of 1,310 sales of all property types on in January 2022, a decrease of 23.7% compared to January 2021, and 27.5% lower compared to December 2021. The Board received 2,135 new listings in January, an increase of 67.1% compared to December 2021, and a decrease of 23.3% compared to January of last year. Total active listings for the month were 2,332, down 44.6% compared to January 2021, however an increase of 19.2% compared to December 2021. Fraser Valley benchmark prices are up sharply, year over year. At $1,569,300, the benchmark price of a detached house increased 41.8%; the townhouse benchmark is up 37.2% to $796,500; and the typical condo price has increased 30.6% from a year ago to $574,300.

Vancouver Westside: 

There was a modest January listing rally for Westside townhouses, a property species that has been hunted to near extinction. New listings rose to 123, compared to just 47 in December 2021, and the benchmark price increased 15% from a year earlier to $1,311,000, based on 49 sales. But only 68 townhouses started construction on the Westside during all of 2021 and no townhouses started on the Westside in January 2021. If you own a Westside townhouse and have considered listing, it would likely attract multiple offers this month. The benchmark price for a detached house on the Westside is now $3,445,400, yet an average of more than two houses sold every day during January, trailing only Richmond for the highest house sales in Greater Vancouver. Condo apartment sales dominated the buyer action on the Westside in January, however, with 330 transactions at a median price of $856,000 and a sales-to-listing-ratio of 47%.

Vancouver East Side: 

A total of 257 residential properties sold in January, unchanged from the same month a year earlier and up 13% from December 2021.

This included 65 detached houses that sold for a benchmark price of $1,805,100, which was 2% higher than in December 2021 and up 16.8% from a year earlier.

Total new listings in January were down 5% compared to January 2021. The overall sales-to-listings ratio of 54% compared to 51% in January 2021. The sales-to-listings ratio for townhouses is 59%, yet the benchmark townhouse price dipped 3% from December 2021 to $1,053,400 in January, the only Metro sub-market to post a month-over-month price decline in townhouse prices. Of course, the 21.5% increase in the previous 12 months may have had something to do with this. Expect more price gains to come.

North Vancouver:

North Vancouver joined the $2 million house price club in January as the benchmark detached house increased 2.9% from a month earlier to $2,025,800. This may have spooked some buyers, as detached sales dropped to 37 transactions, down from 56 in December 2021, despite new listings rising to 74 houses, up from 25 a month before. The detached house and townhouse sales-to-new-listing ratio are both at 50%. In January, 59% of the 109 listings for condo apartments sold at a benchmark price of $695,000. Total new listings in January were down 24% compared to January 2021 in this seller’s market.

West Vancouver: 

This remains an exclusive market, where the benchmark home price is among the highest in Canada at $2,605,000 in January, due to the dominance of detached houses, which now sell for a median of $3,080,000. West Vancouver home prices have remained fairly stable over the past year, inching up just under 1% per month. West Vancouver condos remain the most expensive in the Metro region, at a January benchmark of $1,151,200, based on a dozen sales. Total new listings in January were down 27% compared to January 2021. There is, however, a relatively healthy 8-month’s supply of total residential listings in what is one of the rare balanced markets in the region.

Richmond: 

Richmond kept the real estate market active as sales were up 23% this January compared to January 2021, while they dropped in most other communities. Richmond detached house prices reached a benchmark of $2,032,000, remaining above the $2 million level for the second straight month. There were 108 detached sales in January, higher compared to both December 2021 and January of last year. Richmond posted the highest townhouse sales in Greater Vancouver in January, with 56 selling at a new record high of $1,027,300, up nearly 4% from December and 24% higher than a year earlier. Total new listings in January were down 7% compared to January 2021. The overall sales to listings ratio is 61% compared to 47% in January 2021 in this strong seller’s market.

Burnaby East: 

Total housing sales in January were 25 – down from 32 (22%) in December 2021, down from 33 (24%) and from 28 (11%) in January 2021. Active Listings were at 34 at month end compared to 67 at that time last year and 32 at the end of December; New listings in January were down 19% compared to January 2021. The sales to listings ratio of 71% compares to 65% in January 2021. The composite home price is now $1,157,100, up 16.4% from January 2021 and 2.6% higher than in December 2021.

Burnaby North: 

Total housing sales in January were 141, down from 157 (10%) in December 2021, and down from 144 (1%) in January 2021. Active Listings were at 262 at month end compared to 448 at that time last year and 229 at the end of December. New listings in January were down 2% compared to January 2021. The sales-to listings ratio is 60% compared to 59% in January 2021. As could be expected in a market where 2,514 apartments started construction last year, tower condos are very popular in Burnaby North, where the benchmark condo price is now $764,800, up 13.4% from a year ago.

Burnaby South: 

After a slow 2020, a successful pre-sale condo launch late in 2021 spurred Metrotown land development action in January. The land prices give an indication of where new Burnaby South condo prices are heading. In January, a 1.4-acre site that falls under the new Metrotown Official Community Plan, which allows greater density, sold for more than $45 million: yes, that works out to about $32 million per acre for a site that could potentially developed into about 396,000 square feet of tower apartments. In January, condos in South Burnaby sold for a benchmark of $710,700, a price up 2% from a month earlier. Total new listings in January were down 7% compared to January 2021. The sales-to listings ratio was 62% compared to 55% in January 2021.

New Westminster: 

The Royal City is the only community in Greater Vancouver where the composite benchmark price is under $1 million, because condo sales dominate transactions. The composite price was $773,600 in January, which was $500,000 below the Greater Vancouver benchmark of $1,255,200. The median price of a condo apartment, which accounted for nearly 80% of January sales, is $598,600; townhouses sell for $925,800; and the typical detached house sold in January for $1,419,000. Total new listings in January were down 22% compared to January 2021. The overall sales to listings ratio is 61% compared to 47% in January 2021.

Coquitlam: Coquitlam residential sales tallied 174 in January, down from 216 (19%) in December 2021 and down from 225 (23%) in January 2021 Active listings were at 299 at month end compared to 538 at that time last year and 267 at the end of December; New Listings in January were down 22% compared to January 2021. January’s sales-to-listings ratio of 66% was exactly the same as a year earlier. Price increases have been remarkable with the benchmark price of a detached house rising 26.9% from a year earlier to $1,675,000 in January and the overall composite home price up nearly 24% from a year earlier and 3.5% higher than in December 2021 to $1,203,100. Coquitlam was recently named the No. 2 best city in which to work in B.C. by BC Business magazine.

Port Moody: 

Port Moody managed to see a slight increase in new listings this January compared to last year, but with 24% more sales. active listings dropped. Total units sold in January were 56, up from 37 in January 2021.; Active Listings were 93 at month end compared to 140 at that time last year and 97 at the end of December 2021. New Listings in January were up 5% compared to January 2021. The sales to listings ratio of 71% compared to 61% in January 2021. The most active sector in January was the condo market, with 24 transactions at a median price of $680,000.

Port Coquitlam: 

Sales generally declined in January compared to December 2021, dropping 28% to 77 transactions. New listings in January were down 33% compared to January 2021 as the city got off to a slow start in the year of the Tiger. Despite the lull in action, the benchmark home price increased 27%, the biggest year-over-year increase in the Tri-Cities, to $1,022,500. There is only about a one-month supply of listing in Port Coquitlam and the sales-to-listing ratio of 73% is eating it up quickly

Pitt Meadows: 

Once one of the most affordable communities in Metro Vancouver, the 2022 assessment value of a Pitt Meadow detached house rose 34% from a year earlier, from $843,000 to $1.13 million, for a hike of $283,000 for the typical house, according to BC Assessment data. The actual sale price of a detached house in January was even higher, at $1,432,600. Total sales in January were 30, nearly level with both January 2021 and December 2021. The sales to listings ratio of 73% compared to 70% in January 2021 in this seller’s market.

Maple Ridge: 

Total units sold in January were 124 – down from 159 (22%) in December 2021, and down from 194 (36%) in January 2021, Active Listings were at 210 at month end compared to 342 at that time last year and 143 at the end of December; New Listings in January were down 4% compared to January 2021, and the sales to listings ratio of 51% compared to 77% in January of last year. The benchmark price of a Maple Ridge detached house posted one of the highest year-over-year increases in the Metro region, escalating 38% to $1,284,300 in January which may be the reason for decrease in sales in January comparative to last January.

Ladner:

With a remarkable 35.6% surge in the benchmark detached house price, compared to a year earlier, the typical Ladner house sold in January for $1,459,000, remarkable for such a small community. Total home sales in the month were 22, up 5% from December 2021 and 10% higher than a year earlier. New Listings in January were down 31% compared to January 2021, and the sales-to-listings ratio of 61% compared to 38% in January 2021. This a tight seller’s market.

Tsawwassen: 

Total housing sales in sunny Tsawwassen were 42 in January, down 28% from January of last year and level with the sales in December 2021. The benchmark detached house price was up about 28% from year earlier at $1,561,600. Townhouse prices are up 21.5% in the same period to $936,600. New listings in January were down 13% compared to January 2021, and the sales-to-listings ratio of 54% compared to 60% in January 2021.

Surrey: 

Watch for a major new multi-family housing developments in the Semiahmoo Town Centre of South Surrey, where Surrey council recently approved a plan that sets building height limits of up to 28-storeys. The plan also allows for a corridor of six-story buildings along 152 Street from 18 Avenue to 23 Avenue. Surrey, which has led new home construction over the past year, saw housing sales contract in January. Detached sales were down 33% from a year earlier; townhouse sales slid 35.4%, though condo apartment sales increased 20% to 291 units. The drop in detached house sales may be a reaction to a 43% surge in average prices from a year earlier to a new all-time high of $1,986,959 in January. Townhouse prices rocketed up nearly 44%, rising from $670,044 a year ago to $936,844 in January 2022.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“Don’t wish it were easier. Wish you were better.”

Jim Rohn

Brace for an interesting year in the housing market

As the Metro Vancouver housing market comes off a record sales year, we are entering what could be the most interesting 12 months this region has ever seen.  The term ‘interesting’ can be seen in relation to the age-old curse of “may you live in interesting times,” but we believe it will also be a blessing because the blinders that have obscured some real estate realities will be ripped away in 2022.

The first expose will be that Canada does not have the supply or the political gumption to provide the housing needed for the biggest surge in immigration this country has ever seen.

The second expose will be that the federal government continues to look at ways to tax homes in Canada as evidenced by a recent CMHC study to add an annual tax on homes valued above $1M, will they slap a capital gains tax on the sale of principal residences next, despite its strenuous denials?

The final reality that every home buyer, seller and renter in Metro Vancouver will face is that the cost of housing here is never going to come down, despite the barriers to demand that every level of government has thrown up over the past 10 years.

It is up to the private market – that is you, me and everyone else who aspires to homeownership – to prepare and prosper in a future characterized by a low supply of housing, greater property taxation and accelerating land and property values.

It won’t be easy, but Metro Vancouver has never been an affordable market. Yet it has remained Canada’s leading residential environment for decades.  There is nowhere better to live in Canada and it certainly has no match when it comes to achieving real estate success.

Let’s look at immigration. According to Statistics Canada, this country absorbed 123,000 immigrants in the third quarter of 2021 alone: the highest level for any quarter since 1946, at the end of World War II. For all of 2021, Canada welcomed 403,000 new residents. To put this in perspective, the United States brought in only 300,000 immigrants for all of last year. Due to immigration, Canada now has the fastest-growing population of all G7 Nations.

If former immigration surges are any indication, up to 30% of newcomers to Canada will immediately or eventually – usually within two years – locate to B.C. and 95% of these will come to Metro Vancouver.

But the supply of housing in Metro Vancouver has fallen to record low levels and, due primarily to local governments, construction of new homes is not keeping pace with the current population, let alone meeting the needs of a hundred thousand newcomers every year.

Considering the lowest we have seen the number of Greater Vancouver active listings go in the last 30 years was 6,200, to hit below 5,000 it truly astonishing. Criticize the supply side discussions all you want but a fundamental flaw in the Metro Vancouver and many other real estate markets that we are experiencing right now is a significant lack of homes. Demand side measures clearly are not the long-term answer. At some point there needs to be real effort to increase supply and allow it to be increased in a meaningful way. And yes, the right kind of supply. We can’t keep wishing for it, there needs to be real work behind any kind of resolution to this issue.

As of December 1, 2021, only 6,000 more homes had started construction in Metro Vancouver than in the same period a year in 2020. Townhouse construction increased by just 98 units; and starts of detached houses fell by 300 homes. The only big increase was in apartments, but 30% of the 17,745 units started in 2021 were rentals, not strata homes.

This is despite a federal housing ministry pronouncement back in January 2021 that “We have a rock-steady focus on increasing the supply of housing in Canada.”

Of course, it is local municipalities that really decide how many homes will be built. And that is where the problem lies. Not to belabour the point, here is a snapshot of some recent for Metro Vancouver development non-decisions.

Vancouver: In 2016 the Grandview-Woodland Community Plan was approved, and the late and iconic Vancouver architect Bing Thom presented plans for the anchor development, his last big proposal, The plan now has been scaled back to 438 secured rental units, including 93 units at below-market rates, and 215 strata residential units, all across from the Broadway-Commercial SkyTrain hub. After three presentations and revisions over four years, the proposal has now been sent for future public hearings. “We have not received rezoning approval,” a developer spokesperson said in December 2021. “We have no idea when it will come.”

As of December 1, 2021, the City of Vancouver had seen total starts of less than 5,000 homes for the year, just 1,500 more than a year earlier, and 90% of 2021 starts were apartments. Only 135 new strata townhomes have started in Vancouver in the past two years.

North Vancouver District. The development of the Maplewood Town Centre was included in the 2006 official community plan. Five years ago, a plan was submitted by two major developers for 535 homes, including 80 below-market rentals. In December 2021, the entire proposal was voted down by District council.
A proposal to develop 420 housing units, half of them rentals at below market rates, in Lynn Canyon has been submitted three times to District council starting nearly two years ago. As of December 2021, it was referred to another round of public hearings.

As of December 1, 2021, North Vancouver District has posted just 423 housing starts, down from 611 in the same period in 2020. Only 17 townhouses were started in 2021.

West Vancouver: Council recently voted down an eight-story condo building with seven strata units. It would have been the first-ever zero emission, mass-timber housing development in the district.

Burnaby:  First presented under the official community plan in 1988, the Bainbridge Urban Village Community Plan and the Lochdale Urban Village Community Plan, meant to increase density around the Sperling SkyTrain station and Hastings Street, began consultations in 2020.The Latest update indicates that final plan to council sometime this year, subject to more public hearings.

Highlights of the December 2021 housing market report

West Side detached housing prices may have peaked for now at $3.4 million

Immigration has hit the highest level since the end of World War II

Richmond is considering “rental only” zoning

A summary of the amazing numbers:

Greater Vancouver:  Total housing sales in December were 2,737 – down from 3,492 (22%) in November 2021, down 23% from October 2021 and down 13% from December 2020, due totally to a lack of listings.

For all of 2021 sales totaled 43,999 homes, a 42.2% increase from the 30,944 sales recorded in 2020, and a 4% increase over the previous all-time sales record set in 2015. Last year’s sales total was 33.4% above the 10-year sales average.

The composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver ended the year at $1,230,200. This was a 17.3% increase compared to December 2020. Both detached home and townhome benchmark prices leaped 22% last year, while condo apartment prices increased 12.8% from year earlier.
The price increases are being fueled by the housing shortage, and the shortage is because of rising prices. The benchmark price of a detached house in Vancouver, Richmond, West Vancouver and Whistler is now more than $2 million. It is over $1.8 million in North Vancouver, Port Moody and most of Burnaby, and has reached $1,756,700, up nearly 30% from a year ago in the Lower Mainland. Sticker-shocked home owners are reluctant to list their home because they don’t know where they can afford to move to. New listings in December were down 51% compared to November 2021 and 20% lower than in December 2020.

Meanwhile, buyers are eager to purchase in a market where the average detached house is increasing in value by $35,000 per month. The result is multiple offers with December’s sales-to-new-listing ratio at a startling 138%, up from 87% in November 2021 and 127% in December 2020. Basically, every new listing sold in December and the total inventory was further whittled down. In some communities, the inventory of homes for sales in now measured in days, not months.

The bottom line: buyers will continue to struggle in 2022. We will see a rush of new listings in January and into the spring, despite COVID conditions. But given the hole we are starting from; it won’t be enough. Immigration has hit record levels. A large supply of housing is absolutely vital to meet the needs of a growing population and our expanding economy.

Fraser Valley: Home sales in the Fraser Valley in 2021, with 27,692 transactions, blew past the previous annual record of 23,974 sales set in 2016 and were 39% higher than in 2020. Unlike Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley also saw a rush of new listings, with 35,629 added – the second highest on record and 12.4% more than in 2020, but demand quickly ate up the supply.

In December 2021, 1,808 homes sold second only to December 2020’s record‐setting 2,086 sales. New listings in December were 1,278. By month’s end, however, the active inventory finished at 1,957 units, the lowest in 41 years. The year ended with detached house prices up 39% from a year earlier at a benchmark of $1.5 million; townhouse prices up 32.9% to $765,800; and condo apartment prices 25.3% higher at $549,200.

Vancouver Westside: We may be seeing peak prices, at least through the next few months, for detached houses right now on the Westside of Vancouver, with December’s benchmark at $3,433,600. Detached house prices are up 8.2% from a year ago, but have been declining steadily for the past six months. The Westside was the only sub-market where detached house prices were actually lower, down 0.4%, in December than five years earlier. For those who see the Westside as a bellwether market, this could be a harbinger for detached house prices. Just 79 detached houses sold in December, down from 100 in November 2021 and 84 in December 2020, in part a reaction to a low supply. With only 82 new listings of houses added in the month, December’s sales-to-new listing ratio was 96%. More listings would have boosted sales, but one wonders if price resistance is in play. Total Westside housing sales reached 468 in December, down 28% from a month earlier and 4% below December of last year. Total listings in December were down 54% compared to November 2021 and down 6% compared to December 2020. The action is now dominated by condo apartment sales, which reached 344 transactions in December to post a sizzling 128% sales-to-listing ratio, despite benchmark condo prices rising to $842,900. The townhouse inventory is close to vanishing: there were 47 new listings in December and 45 sales; driving the median townhouse price to $1,650,000, up about $340,000 from a year earlier.

Vancouver East Side: It takes a few minutes to drive from the heart of the Westside to the centre of Vancouver’s East Side but the short journey was a $1.7 million migrations for a December house buyer. The benchmark house price on the East Side as 2021 ended was $1,770,100, almost exactly half the price of a Westside house. This is perhaps the widest price-to-proximity gap in the Lower Mainland. It helps explain why nearly 1,800 East Side houses sold in 2021, compared to 1,210 on the Westside and why the benchmark East Side detached house price increased 23.9% in the past year while it increased just 8.6% on the Westside. The East Side saw the sales-to-listing ratio for detached houses hit 125% in December, showing the price pressure will likely increase going into 2020. East Side condo apartments may offer the best deal in Greater Vancouver for those seeking some level of affordability. The median East Side condo price in December was $618,500, lower than in Burnaby, the North Shore or Coquitlam and about $200,000 less than on the Westside. East Vancouver, however, is also seeking a housing shortage, with total active listings at year-end of 690 homes, down from 921 in November.

North Vancouver: Despite all the handwringing about rising home prices, BC Assessment data shows that demand is driving prices even higher in prime neighbourhoods. For instance, assessment values for homes on the exclusive Dollarton waterfront and in Grousewoods in North Vancouver were up 30% over the past year, while they increased just 16% in more affordable Norgate and Pemberton. Across all of North Vancouver, the composite home price in December was up 14.2% from a year earlier to $1,273,100, while the typical detached house price was $1,968,000, up 15.6% year-over-year. New Listings in December were down 58% compared to November 2021 and down 26% compared to December 2020.Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 1 month with the sales-to-listing ratio at a stunning 163%.

West Vancouver: Total housing sales in December were down 23% from a month earlier to 62 transactions, as new listings dropped 67% compared to November 2021, and 25% from December 2020. There is now about a six-month supply – 371 active listings – on the market, but the December sales to listing ratio was running at 124%. The benchmark detached house price is $3,224,500, up 13.1% from December of 2020. The big gain is in Ambleside, where the typical house price rose an average of 34% over last year, according to B.C. Assessment.

Richmond: Richmond is considering ‘rental-only zoning’ of 60 rental properties to discourage the potential development of strata homes. The targeted properties are all rentals, including 17 housing co-operatives. This could discourage development and cause values to fall for land where only rentals are permitted, if developers caution. City staff is recommending the move. This is something for property owners to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, Richmond total housing sales were up 13% year-over-year- in December to 481 transactions, while new listings dropped 9% in the same period. The sales-to-listing ratio is at 140%, which has translated into multiple offers and the composite home price increasing 17.4% from a year ago to $1,132,600.

Burnaby East: Total housing sales in December were 32 – down 3% from November 2021 and down from 22% compared to December 2020 New listings in December were down 44% compared to November 2021. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at a 1 month’s supply, with a sales-to-listings ratio of 145% compared to 85% in November 2021 and 216% in December 2020. The composite home price is up 13%, year-over-year, to $1,127,600.

Burnaby North: The benchmark detached house price jumped to $1,802,600 in December, up 17.3% from a year earlier, reflecting intense demand in the face of lower inventory across every sector. Total new listings in December were down 45% compared to November 2021 and down 27% compared to December 2020. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 1 month as the sales-to-listings ratio rose to 130% compared to 84% in November 2021.

Burnaby South: The detached house market edged closer to the $2 million club in December, as benchmark prices edged up 1.9% from a month earlier to $1,868,000, the highest house price in Burnaby. Total housing sales, however, dropped 17% from November to 225 units, likely due to a severe shortage. Active listings were at 257 at month end compared to 574 at that time last year and 358 at the end of November. The total sales-to listings ratio is a blistering 138% compared to 100% in November 2021 and 103% in December 2020.

New Westminster: The benchmark detached house price in the Royal City in December was $1,393,800, up 21.5% from a year earlier, but prices are higher in some neighbourhoods, based on recent BC Assessment values. A property n Queensborough has been assessed at $3,009,000 and at least 10 other properties in New Westminster topped $2.5 million, according to assessment values released January 4. Detached house prices will likely increase, because the sales-to-listing ratio hit 183% in December, among the highest in Metro Vancouver, because only 12 new listings hit the market in the month. Total listings of all properties in December were down 53% compared to November 2021 and down 9% compared to December 2020, but the sales-to-listing ratio is 164%.

Coquitlam: Total housing sales fell 25% in December from a month earlier, to 216, but a lack of inventory drove the composite benchmark home price up 2% in the same period to $1,162,400. Detached house prices were up 25.1% from a year earlier to $1,616,200, while townhouse prices shot up 23% to $904,500. Total new listings for all properties in December were down 52% compared to November 2021 and down 27% compared to December 2020, as the sales-to-listing ratio hit 140%.

Port Moody: This market is experiencing some of the highest price increases in Greater Vancouver. The benchmark condo price in December was $767,600, up 16.9% from year earlier and the typical detached house sold for $1,948,800, 24% higher than in December of last year and by far the highest price in the Tri-Cities.
Total sales in December were down 33%, year-over-year, to 52 units, and active listings fell to just 97 homes, compared to 155 at the end of 2020. The result is a sales success ratio of 133%, meaning virtually every new listing is selling. The bottom-line numbers, there were only19 townhouses and 22 apartments available for sale.

Port Coquitlam: For now, this is the most affordable of the Tri-Cities, with a composite benchmark home price of $988,800 in December. There are no big housing developments planned for 2022, but a number of civic projects, including a downtown upgrade and a civic centre makeover are underway. More housing supply is badly needed, though, as the total inventory is down to two-weeks and the sales-to-listing ratio is a sizzling 162% with 4 townhouses and 17 apartments available. An idea of the price direction in Port Coquitlam is the December sale of a 1.2-acre rental building downtown that sold for $18.2million.
Ladner: Total housing sales in December were 21 – down 49% from November 2021, and 39% below December 2020. Active Listings were at 33 (with only 1 townhouse and 3 apartments) at month end compared to 66 at that time last year and 50 at the end of November. New listings in December were down 70% compared to November 2021 and down 60% compared to December 2020. The composite home price has surged 25% from a year ago to $1,103,000 and the typical townhouse price is up 26% to $826,100.

Tsawwassen: Detached house prices are up 28.2% from a year ago and rose 3.3% from a month earlier to reach $1,525,300, understandable as total housing sales are running at sales to listing ratio of 215%. Active Listings were at 68 at month end compared to 176 at that time last year and 97 at the end of November.

Pitt Meadows: Total Units Sold in December were 33 – up from 32 (3%) in November 2021, down from 34 (3%) in October 2021, up from 26 (27%) in December 2020, up from 27 (22%) in December 2019; Active Listings were at 29 at month end compared to 47 at that time last year and 37 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 36% compared to November 2021, up 20% compared to December 2020 and up 115% compared to December 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 1 month’s supply and sales to listings ratio of 117% compared to 72% in November 2021, 130% in December 2020 and 207% in December 2019. The shocking numbers: 16 detached homes, 8 townhouses and 2 apartments available.

Maple Ridge: Total Units Sold in December were 159 – down from 198 (20%) in November 2021, down from 187 (15%) in October 2021, down from 214 (26%) in December 2020, up from 130 (22%) in December 2019; Active Listings were at 143 at month end compared to 371 at that time last year and 235 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 50% compared to November 2021, down 33% compared to December 2020 and up 4% compared to December 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is still at 1 month’s supply and sales to listings ratio of 145% compared to 90% in November 2021, 129% in December 2020 and 123% in December 2019.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“Courage is found in unlikely places.”

J.R.R. Tolkien

Condos alone can’t meet buyer demand

Sales of condominium apartments accounted for 53 per cent of all housing sales in Greater Vancouver in November 2021, with a 33.3% surge in transactions compared to November of 2020, but the record-setting sales pace may underline desperation in the market.

In the Fraser Valley, November sales of condo apartments were up 42.8% from November of 2020 and the benchmark price was up 21.7 per cent compared to November 2020.

We suspect more buyers are opting for a condo apartment because there is simply such little choice amidst unprecedented low inventory across all of Metro Vancouver. As well, apartments attract more investors than other sectors of the housing market, which further reduces the inventory. This is seen in pre-sales of new condo projects, in both Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

At least six new condo projects in Surrey, for example, completely pre-sold a total of 1,400 new condos since the summer. One high-rise project in central Surrey pre-sold 365 condos in a single weekend in mid-November.

Metro Vancouver saw 15 new condo projects, with a total of 2,525 units, released in October and this was followed by 1,796 pre-sale condos released in 13 projects in November. Yet Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reports that, even with 25,000 new condos under construction across Metro Vancouver, there were less than 1,500 condo units unsold as of November 1, the lowest level in three years.

As the demand increased, the price of the most affordable housing option has risen in step. As of November, the benchmark price for a resale apartment in Greater Vancouver was $752,800, up 11.1% from November of last year and 0.9% higher than in October 2021. In the Fraser Valley, the benchmark price for a apartment is now $530,400.

The average pre-sale price for a new condo in Metro Vancouver is now $1,050 to $1,150 per square foot, based on recent pre-sales. This means that a typical one-bedroom 480-square foot new condo costs around $500,000, and this average holds steady throughout most Metro Vancouver suburbs. Investors and owner-occupiers continue to buy due to expectations that prices will be even higher in the months and years ahead, which does appear certain due to the stubbornly low inventory.

The housing supply issue in Metro Vancouver is seriously out of whack with market demand. We have seen recent municipal and provincial government attempts to increase supply, but it is too little and too late to correct the current shortage any time soon.

Across Greater Vancouver the total inventory of homes for sale is stuck at a two month’s supply while the sales-to-listing ratio is running at 83% on average and cresting at over 100% in many markets.

With December looming, a month when listings traditionally fall to the lowest level of the year, Greater Vancouver will likely see the smallest ever inventory of homes to begin a New Year. The lowest we’ve seen at the start of a year is at 6,200 active listings. We will likely have less than 6,000 at the end of December which would translate into less than 5,000 active listings in Greater Vancouver when 2022 starts, after all the expired listings come and go at the end of December.

To put this in perspective, over the last six years, the average number of active listings to finish the year has been 8,440 while in the previous 20 years it’s been 12,015 homes.

If you have considered selling any type of property, list now and prepare for offers. If you need to wait until after the seasonal holidays, list early in January.

Highlights of the November 2021 housing market:

Highest year-over-year detached house price increase in Greater Vancouver: Maple Ridge, up 34.1%
Biggest year-over-year detached house sales drop: Surrey, down 33.1%
Most expensive condo market: West Vancouver ($1.16 million)
Least expensive condo market: Surrey ($433,000)
Average sales-to-listing ratio, Greater Vancouver: 87%

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver: A total of 3,492 homes sold in November 2021, virtually unchanged (up 1%) from October but 15% higher than in November 2020. Active listings, however, crashed to 7,570 homes, down from 11,716 in November of last year. Here is a snapshot example of what is happening: New listings continue to decline as they have for months, slipping a further 2% from October to November. The month’s supply of total residential listings is still at two month’s (seller’s market conditions) and the overall sales to listings ratio is at 87% compared to 86% in October 2021 and 75% in November 2020. The composite home price in Greater Vancouver is now $1,211,200. This represents a 16% increase over November 2020 and a 1% increase compared to October 2021.

Vancouver Westside: A total of 647 homes of all types sold in the Westside in November, up 38% from November of 2020 and 9% higher than in October 2021.
New listings in November were down 11% compared to October 2021, but up 8% compared to November 2020. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio is 75% compared to 61% in October 2021 and 59% in November 2020. The price of detached houses on the Westside is slowly declining. The benchmark price of the 100 detached houses sold in November was $3,413,800, down 1% from October and tracking down about 1% over the past six months. The benchmark townhouse price is now $1,296,900, unchanged from a month earlier and up 12.7% from November of last year. The benchmark price for a Westside condo apartment in November was $835,500, 9.6% higher than in November 2020. With more inventory on Vancouver’s Westside, it’s keeping prices more in check compared to other areas. Funny, more supply does help keep prices down.

Vancouver East Side: The City of Vancouver claims it is speeding up residential building permit approvals. As an example, the city claims that it should now take 12 weeks less time to get a permit for a new house to be built. As a comparison, Surrey, which is the second largest B.C. city, guarantees that will take no more than 12 weeks for new house building permit to be approved. In Vancouver it can still take seven years for a permit for a new condo or townhouse development to work through the city process. Meanwhile, housing demand is increasing and supply is falling. Total East Side housing sales in November reached 385, up 6% from November 2020, but active listings were down to 921 homes, compared to 1,232 in November of last year. With the overall sales to listing ratio at 76%, there is now just a two-month supply of homes on the East Side. As a result, the benchmark detached house price in November was $1,744,700, up 20% from a year ago; the typical townhouse now sells for $1,070,700, up 18.8%, year-over-year; and the benchmark condo price is now $639,600 and has been rising by 1% month-over-month this year in this seller’s market.

North Vancouver: The benchmark price of a detached house this November in North Vancouver was $1,955,300, up 17% from a year ago, but for 88 house owners in central Lonsdale, detached house prices may soon be rising faster. That’s because the City of North Vancouver ruled on November 15 to upzone the 300 block (St. Andrews and Ridgeway avenues) from East 15th to East 19th Streets for duplexes. Even higher density zoning, to include row houses, is being eyed for the area. This plan has been in the works for seven years. Under the change, the 88 lots can be converted to duplexes without going through the usual time-consuming zoning process. It is a start, at least. So far this year, no townhouses have been approved to start in North Vancouver city and there are only 27 under construction in the entire city. Meanwhile, there were only 40 new listings for townhouses in all of North Vancouver City and District in November and there were 42 sales, resulting in a sales-to-listing ratio was 105%, meaning every townhouse listing is selling. I know we keep beating the same drum, but when will municipalities realize that more housing supply is desperately needed?

West Vancouver: While overall housing sales were down in November, with the 81 transactions off 10% from both October 2021 and from November 2020, West Vancouver also posted a dubious award: provincial data shows West Vancouver homeowners will pay the fourth-highest speculation and vacancy tax in the province for 2020, at $5.9 million. The onerous speculation tax is supposed to lower both the rental vacancy rate and the price of housing. There is no evidence of either since the tax was introduced, in fact it appears to have had the exact opposite effect. The composite home price in West Vancouver was up 12% from a year ago, at $2,552,100 in November. A lack of supply may cause prices to increase: new listings in November were down 30% compared to October 2021 and the sales-to-listing ratio is at 70% compared to 54% a month earlier.

Richmond: How time and opportunity slip away. In November, nearly nine years after a plan was first discussed, the City of Richmond has booted a proposal for a large residential development in the Capstan area – 1,300 homes – for further discussion. The developer has already agreed to save more trees, add more rentals and pay $205,000 for an “owl and hawk hunting area.” Don’t hold your breath waiting for a new townhouse or condo in the that area, despite the intense demand. In November, a total of 481 homes sold in Richmond, up 43% from November of 2020, but the total active listings plunged to 997 homes, down from 1,637 at that time last year and 1,155 at the end of October 2021. With just a two-month supply on the market, the sales-to-listing ratio is a startling 94%. The current composite home price in Richmond is $1,116,200, up 16.3% from November of last year. We fully expect Richmond home prices to increase as the supply dwindles.

Ladner: Okay, I know we have heard this before, but Ladner may actually be moving towards completing a downtown makeover plan – discussed for decades and in planning for two years – that would increase density and encourage redevelopment of the waterfront. In November the city gave preliminary approval for projects of up to six storeys. A public hearing on the plan is set for December 14, starting at 6 p.m. In November, 41 homes sold in Ladner, up 8% from October, but new listings fell 20% in the same period. There is about a one-month supply of homes on the market, and the sales-to-listing ratio is at a remarkable 103%. The composite home price was $1,077,700 in November, 23.5% higher than in November 2020.

Tsawwassen: The benchmark price of a Tsawwassen detached house in November was up 26.8% from a year earlier to $1,476,700, which is also 5.5% higher than just three months ago, one of the higher price increases in Greater Vancouver. Townhouse prices have shot up 13.4% year-over-year, to $872,500, which is higher than in Burnaby or New Westminster. This underlines the price parity we noted last month that may be keeping new listing in check. At one time, a seller could cash out of home in Burnaby or Vancouver and be confident of buying for much less in areas like South Delta. Also, a first-time buyer would look to the outer suburbs for more affordable homes to get onto the real estate ladder. But today, home prices are quite similar across all of Metro Vancouver. Like many suburbs, the law of supply and demand is driving Tsawwassen prices higher. With new listings down 14% in November from a month earlier, the sales-to-listing ratio was 106% and multiple offers have become common.

Burnaby East: It was more expensive to buy a condo apartment in Burnaby East than a townhouse this November, a rarity in Greater Vancouver. I suspect it is because of a lack of townhouse sales in a market where there is only a one month’s supply of homes on the market, plus the recent resales of fairly new condos. In any case, the benchmark condo price in November was $742,400, while the townhouse benchmark was $704,400. The overall sales-to-listing ratio is 85%, creating a seller’s market in Burnaby East.

Burnaby North: The benchmark price of a North Burnaby detached house has increased about $238,000 over the past year to a November benchmark of $1,769,000. And yes, we are still seeing multiple offers on prime houses in this strong seller’s market. Total sales in November were 185 homes, up 19% from November 2020, but the total active listings were down to 322, compared to 439 at the same time last year. The sales to listing ratio is running at 84%, up from 63% in November 2020. Burnaby North is a very strong condo market, due to the ongoing Brentwood area developments, with the benchmark condo price in November at $738,300, 11.1% higher than a year ago.

Burnaby South: Total housing sales in November reached 225 transactions, up 42% from November of last year and virtually unchanged from October 2021. Active listings were at 358 at month end compared to 669 at the same time last year, and 438 at the end of October 2021. New listings in November were down 2% compared to October 2021.The sales-to-listing ratio was 100% in both November and in October, showing that supply is not close to meeting demand. Townhouses are posting the strongest price growth, increasing an average of 2% per month for the last six month to reach $772,600 in November.

New Westminster: One potential developer has been waiting six years for a small townhouse development to achieve zoning through New Westminster’s approval process. Another, a rental project which even the mayor said “checks all the boxes,” was dissuaded from proceeding in November because city staff are concerned the site “is problematic from a livability perspective.” Meanwhile, only 12 new townhouses have been completed in New Westminster this year and, of the 16 condo apartments completed, there is only one that has been “unabsorbed”, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. There are 1,522 apartments under construction in the Royal City, but most will not complete until 2023 since 1,200 of them just started this year, and many of which are rentals. What is badly needed is strata townhouses. In November there were only 17 new listings for townhouses, but the sales-to-listing ratio was 142% due to 24 sales. As a result, the median price of a townhouse has soared $120,000 from a year ago to $854,000 this November. New Westminster currently has only a one month’s supply of all types of housing and the over sales-to-listing ratio is running at 99%.

Coquitlam: With total listings down nearly 50% in November, to 383, compared to the same month a year earlier and down from 430 at the end of October 2021, even Coquitlam is facing a housing shortage. This is reflected in prices in a market where the November sales-to-listing ratio was a high 89% and touched 110% in October. The benchmark condo price is up 14.2% year-over-year to $607,000; the typical townhouse is transacting at $890,100, up 22.2% from the same time last year; and detached house price are 24% higher to $1,577,900.

Port Moody: A flashpoint for the development community is close to ignition in Port Moody, where a major developer is apparently prepared to walk away from a large multi-family development because of repeated delays and changes from the city. The overall plan, more than two years in the works, involves replacing 58 detached houses that were assembled for a new development with hundreds of condos and townhouses. Meanwhile, total active listings have fallen about 40% from a year ago to just 125 homes in November. There is an estimated two-month’s supply on the market and the overall sales-to-listing ratio has been over 84% for two months. The composite price for a Port Moody home was up 16.6% from a year ago at $1,086,700 in November.

Port Coquitlam: Total housing sales in Port Coquitlam reached 127 homes in November, up 6% from a month earlier and 25% higher than in November 2020. Active listings were at 107 at the end of November, compared to 199 at that time last year and 138 at the end of October; new listings in November were down 13% compared to October 2021. Once by far the most affordable TriCity community, Port Coquitlam’s detached house price, at a benchmark of $1,323,500 in November, is narrowing the gap with Coquitlam and Port Moody, after increasing 27.3% from a year earlier. Based on its 111% sales-to-listing ratio, there is only a one-month supply of homes on the Port Coquitlam market.

Pitt Meadows: Pitt Meadows is still relatively affordable for home buyers, but only in relation to the rest of Metro Vancouver. Just three years ago the benchmark detached house price in Pitt Meadows was $702,000. This November it was $1,310,200. This may help explain why total sales in November were down 30% from the same month a year ago and 6% lower than in October 2021. New listings increased 13% in November from a month earlier, but total active listings, at just 37, are 40% lower than a year ago. The sales-to-listing ratio calmed to 72% compared to 106% in October 2021, but this remains a seller’s market.

Maple Ridge: Maple Ridge holds the distinction of posting the highest detached house price increase in Greater Vancouver, with the November benchmark price up 34.1% from a year earlier to $1,204,000.The entire Maple Ridge market is quite active, with November sales of 198 homes up 6% from a month earlier and 12% above the pace in November 2020. While total active listing are 55% lower than a year ago, new listings in November were up an encouraging 27% compared to October 2021. Yet, with the sales-to-listing ratio at 90% in November and 109% in October, prices may be forced higher.

Surrey: Speaking of price parity, the benchmark price of a detached house in Surrey in November was $1,557,900 after increasing 34.7% from a year earlier. But, and we have to blame the spike in prices, sales of detached houses plunged 33.1% in the same period and have remained static at around 320 sales for the last three months. Townhouses have seen the same trajectory, with year-over-year prices up 30.3% and sales falling by 20%. Lovely as Surrey is, when property prices begin to challenge suburban markets closer to Vancouver, it appears buyer resistance sets in. The outlier is Surrey condos, which are priced at a benchmark of $433,000 – far lower than in Greater Vancouver where the condo price is now $752,000. Surrey condo sales soared 52.5% in November, to 305 transactions, compared to November 2020. I would suggest that many first-time buyers and investors are being drawn to Surrey’s condo market.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“In a gentle way, you can shake the world.”

Mahatma Gandhi

Suburban safety valves close as prices rise in step

The shocking shortage of homes for sale across Metro Vancouver has had the unsettling effects of levelling residential prices and stunting supply from Burrard Inlet to well south of the Fraser River. The suburban safety valves for those seeking more affordable homes have nearly vanished.

The price gap between the average home price in Greater Vancouver and the eastern Fraser Valley was once a canyon: today it is a creek.

In October 2019, just three years ago, the composite home price difference between Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley was $272,500. This October that had narrowed to less than $150,000. In the detached housing market, it now costs nearly the same to buy a house in North Burnaby ($1.74 million) or East Vancouver ($1.71 million) as in South Surrey-White Rock, where the October benchmark was $1.76 million. A house in Langley ($1.45 million) is higher than in New Westminster or Port Coquitlam and within $50,000 of a detached house in East Burnaby.

The composite benchmark price in Chilliwack in October, at $800,000, was higher than in New Westminster ($749,200); and within $200,000 of most of the Tri-Cities market.

This price-gap shrinkage is the result of and a key reason for the current lack of new listings on the Metro Vancouver market. In the misty past – like 36 months ago – Greater Vancouver homebuyers could count on selling and downsizing to a smaller, pleasant Fraser Valley community and pocketing a healthy premium. First-time buyers would start their real estate ascension buying in the eastern Valley and, if desired, leverage up to a place in Greater Vancouver.

Now, though, many homeowners are reluctant to list because their exit strategy has been blocked. It is difficult to downsize or upgrade to a place 30 or 60 kilometres away when the home prices are nearly identical or you are you don’t feel you will be able to find a home to purchase.
The effect has been devastating.

In October, Greater Vancouver saw 3,455 homes sell but only 4,120 new listings were added to the market. With an 86% sale- to-listings ratio in the month, nearly every listing that came on the market sold – and in some areas like Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody and Tsawwassen, there were more sales in the month than there were new listings.

In the Fraser Valley in October there were 1,938 total sales and a mere 2,188 new listings. That is a sales-to-listing ratio of 88.5%.

Will there be any properties for sale on the Metro Vancouver market by the end of 2021? At the rate of decline in the number of active listings, it would seem we could very well run out. For years, there’s been a concentrated, coordinated push by all three levels of government to hold back housing demand. But now we’re left with a complete lack of supply, the lowest levels ever recorded at this time of year.

Maybe one day we’ll stop saying how low the number of active listings is and that each month won’t be setting a record for how low they are. Likely not in the near term though. At the end of October there were 8,492 active listings available for sale in Greater Vancouver, which was less than the 9,728 active listings at the end of September. Sales for the month, however, were up 11% from September and 22.4% above the 10-year October average.

In the Fraser Valley, there were just 3,447 active listings in October, down a stunning 49.8% from October 2020 and nearly 10% lower than in September 2021. But total sales were the third-highest for October on record, 18.2% higher than in October of last year and nearly 5% higher than in September 2021.

As we have seen for some months, year-over-year condominium apartment sales in October tracked above last year while detached and townhouse markets are showing less sales than in the same month a year ago.

Compared to October 2020, the number of apartment sales in October this year were up 14%, while townhouses were down 22% and detached home transactions down 18%. On the supply side, the number of new listings for detached homes in October was down 29% year over year with active listings down 24%, townhouse new listings were down 22% with active listings down 47% and apartment new listings down 25% and active listings down 38%. And, unlike other years, we can’t expect a surge of new housing starts to provide the necessary inventory. Across all of Metro Vancouver, total starts as of September were down 37% from August to just 14,109 units ­– and 24% of these were rental units.

Highlights of the Metro Vancouver market October 2021

• Communities with less than one-month inventory of homes: Coquitlam, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows and Ladner
• Markets with sales-to-new-listing ratios higher than 100%: Coquitlam, New Westminster, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, Port Moody, Sunshine Coast.
• Biggest month-over-month detached house price increase: Pitt Meadows (up 4.6% from September.)
• Biggest month-over-month detached house price decline: Vancouver West Side (down 1.3% from September).
• Condominium sales as a per centage of the total market: 50%

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver: There were a total of 3,545 residential transactions in October, up 11% from September 2021, but down 6% from October 2020. Active listings were at 8,492 at month end compared to 13,066 at that time last year and 9,728 at the end of September. New listings in October were down 22% compared to September 2021 and 28% lower when compared to October 2020. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 2 months, signalling a strong seller’s market with a sales-to-listing ratio of 86%, compared to 60% a month earlier. The composite home price in October was $1,199,400, up 1.1% from a month earlier and 14.7% higher than in October 2020.

Fraser Valley: There were a total of 1,983 home sales in October, up 3.9% from a month earlier, but down 18.2% from October 2020. After rebounding slightly in September, new listings decreased in October. Only 2,188 new listings were added, a decrease of 29% compared to last year, and a decrease of 6.6% compared to September 2021. The month ended with a total active inventory of 3,447, which is a 9.6% decrease compared to September, and down 49.8% compared to October 2020. The average composite home price is now $1,053,635, up 2.8% from September 2021 and 24.6% higher than in October of last year.

Vancouver Westside: The October benchmark price of a Westside detached house was $3,450,000 and the composite home price was $1,365,300, which is double the Canada-wide composite average. Yet Westside detached house sales were up 31%, at 108 transactions, from September 2021 and total sales, at 595, were 7% higher, month over month. A lack of supply – new listings in October were down 21% from September – has had a counterintuitive effect on prices. The benchmark detached house price was down 1.3% from a month earlier and remained slightly lower (down 0.5%) from three months ago. Townhouse benchmark prices, at $1,300,300, have increased just 0.7% from August and the benchmark condo apartment price, at $823,300, is virtually unchanged from six months ago. The sales-to-new listing ratio for houses was 68%; it was 55% from townhouses and 61% for condo apartments, all up marginally from the monthly averages this year.

Vancouver East Side: More detached houses sold, 137, on the East Side of Vancouver in October than in any other sub-market in all of Greater Vancouver, including the West Side. The key reasons are price and potential. At a benchmark price of $1,717,400, East Side houses are less expensive than across Greater Vancouver and remain about half the price of homes west of Quebec Street. As for potential, the City of Vancouver has new plan to scrapping the rezoning and public hearings for six-storey rental projects along arterial streets from Hastings-Sunrise to Dunbar, with most of the action expected on the East Side. This could encourage developers. The East Side will also soon have the new Broadway Corridor transit hubs; the $2 billion new St. Paul’s Hospital is underway and Mount Pleasant East is undergoing a high-tech job explosion, as is the emerging False Creek Flats. East Vancouver’s sales-to-listing ratio is running at 87% for both houses and townhouses, due to severe shortage of new listings, while 76% of new listings for condos sold in October. Its median condo price, with 178 sales in October, was $662,000.

North Vancouver: North Vancouver’s need for more housing supply is underlined by the sudden spike in school enrollment this year, with 440 more local students when schools opened in September compared to a year earlier. International student enrollment shot up to 531, though projections were for less than 380. This is enough students to fill two elementary schools. All these children and their parents need places to live but total new listings for detached houses in October were down about 40% from September to just 94 houses, and the sales-to-listing ratio was 100%. There was a slight uptick in townhouse listings, at 54, while new listings for condo apartments fell to 142 units, down from 224 a month earlier. The sales-to-listing ratio for condos hit 96%, the highest monthly level so far this year. The total supply of North Vancouver homes is down to 2 months, while the composite home price in October was up 0.5% from September, at $1,245,600. The benchmark detached house price led the increase, with a 1.4% month-to-month rise to $1,939,500.

West Vancouver: Attempts to build more multi-family strata supply in West Vancouver is mixed. A 68-unit condo project was recently approved at Taylor Wave and Marine Drive but a similar development on Bellevue Avenue was refused in mid-October. Only 24 strata homes have started this year. Meanwhile, the total supply of homes for sale is down to a 6-month inventory, as total new listings in October dropped 23% from a month earlier. West Vancouver posted 60 detached sales in October, up from 41 in September while the benchmark detached price increased 1.9% to $$3,201,200 and the sales success ratio hit 48%. Only 14 townhouses and 22 condo apartments were added to the market in October, created a sales-to-new-listing ratio of 64% and 86%, respectively for the sectors.

Richmond: Provincial legislation introduced in late October is meant to speed up residential developments at the municipal level, and Richmond could use such help to get more homes started. With a sales-to-listing ratio of 86% in October, Richmond has just 2 months of total housing inventory. October saw total sales increase 11% from September to 479 transactions. This was led by 243 sales of condo apartments, at a benchmark price of $731,100, a price up 0.9% from a month earlier. The benchmark detached house price in Richmond, at $1,950,600 in October, was unchanged from September. Sales of townhouses were up about 10% from September, to 117 transactions, while the benchmark townhouse price held steady at $961,200.

Burnaby East: Burnaby East is the most affordable of the Burnaby markets, with the October composite price at $1,099,000 and detached houses selling for $1,501,700, nearly unchanged from a month earlier. Total housing sales reached 44 in October, up 16% from September, but new listings were down 33% month-over-month and 47% below October 2020. The supply of total residential listings is down to 1 month with a sales to listings ratio of 133% in October compared to 78% in September 2021.

Burnaby North: Burnaby North could be the multiple-offer centre of Greater Vancouver as a 51% drop in new listings collided with a 16% increase in sales, month-over-month, in October. The result was predictable as eager buyers competed for scant opportunities. Strata prices are steadily rising and the composite home price, at $1,122,900, is now 11.7% higher than in October 2020. There is an acute shortage of townhouses, seen in the average 1.1% price increase month-over-month this year, to an October benchmark of $841,500. Not a single new townhouse has started construction this year in North Burnaby and just 16 new townhouses under construction. Condo apartments dominate the market, selling for a benchmark of $733,200, up 4.4% from six months ago. More supply is coming, with 2,274 new condos under construction as of October 1. Detached house prices have levelled off at $1,743,700, up just 2% from six months earlier. The overall sales-to-listing ratio hit 102% in October in this strong seller’s market.

Burnaby South: Total October housing sales were up 25% from September to 228 transactions, while new listings were down 20% in the same period, a common story across the entire region. With a total inventory at a 2-month supply, the sales-to-listing ratio in October hit 100%, which is as tight as you can get. The composite home price in October was up 9.2% from a year earlier at $1,057,200.

New Westminster: The Royal City posted a 95% sales-to-listing ratio in October, compared to just 56% a month earlier, as sales increased 27% and new listings dropped 26% in the same period. The supply of total residential listings is down to 2 months. Prices continue to rise across the board, with detached houses up 1.3% from September at $1,364,600; townhouse prices up nearly 2% month-over-month to $$864,300; and the typical condo apartment selling for $568,000, 7.6% higher than a year ago and up 0.2% from September 2021.

Coquitlam: The City of Coquitlam has put a 4.4-acre townhouse site on the market, with RFO bids being accepted until November 10. Let’s hope some developer bites, because there were only 29 townhouses added to the MLS service in October while there were 34 townhouse sales, resulting in a 134% sales-to-listing ratio. The benchmark townhouse price is now $878,100, up 20.9% from the same month last year and they have been rising about 2% month-over-month since then. The housing shortage is being seen right across Coquitlam, with just 434 total active listings, down about 50% in October compared to October 2020. The resulting sales-to-listing ratio is 111%, which is unsustainable unless a fresh supply is added.

Port Moody: The City of Port Moody, which has earned a recent reputation as anti-development since 2018, appears to have seen the light, because it is running out of housing inventory which is driving prices higher. At $1,878,400 in October, detached house prices are nearly 24% higher than a year ago and among the highest of all suburban markets in Greater Vancouver. Strata prices are also rising, ascending an average of 14% over the past 12 months. The city is now hoping to increase strata supply and, as one city councillor put it “stop beating builders with a stick.” So far in 2021 only 28 townhouses have started construction in Port Moody, along with 378 condo apartments.

Port Coquitlam: This enclave of relative stability and affordability has been discovered, resulting in a 24% spike in sales in October, to 120 transactions, compared to a month earlier. The benchmark detached house is $1,289,000, the lowest price in the Tri-Cities market. The median condo apartment price, however, increased $40,000 from September to October when it reached $543,900. Total new listings in October were down 10% compared to September 2021, and 26% lower than in October 2020, which will increase price pressure. Port Coquitlam has a total inventory of just one month supply of homes, and the sales ratio is running at 92%, so buyers looking at this market should act quickly.

Pitt Meadows: After a year of quite strong sales, Pitt Meadows is running out of homes for sale, literally, which stalled total October sales at just 34 transactions, down 17% from September. There are just 34 active listings on the market, which means that virtually everything is selling. Detached house prices remain among the lowest in Greater Vancouver, but benchmark values are rising steadily and reached $1,268,000 this October, notching a 4.6% increase from September, the biggest month-over-month increase in Greater Vancouver. There is only a 1-month supply of listings and this could soon be lower as the sales-to-listing ratio is now running at 109%.

Maple Ridge: Total sales in October, at 182, were up 3% from September 2021 but down a stunning 36% from October 2020. The reason? Your guessed it: a supply shortage. New listings in October were down 26% compared to September 202, and 41% lower than in October 2020. We estimate, that with the current sales-to-listing ratio at 110%, the total inventory of listings could vanish in a month if the market remains unchanged. The detached house price jumped 2.3% from September to $1,176,600 and condo apartment values increased the same, to $451,000, up nearly 25% from October 2020.

Ladner: Hundreds of Delta detached-house owners remain under the old land use contracts, but council is taking steps to end the contracts, which restrict what can be done with a property. Mostly created in the 1970s, land use contracts were signed at the time of a property’s original subdivision and outline various development guidelines. All of the contracts are to expire in 2024, but if the Ladner house you are planning to buy is still under the old rules, it is possible to receive permission for such things as adding a secondary suite. Ladner saw a total of 38 home sales in October, unchanged from a month earlier, but the total new listings increased 11% from September, which is rare in the region. The composite home price was up 2.6% from September to $1,074,100 in October, while the detached house price was 2% higher, at $1,134,200.

Tsawwassen: With a sales-to-listing ratio of 112% in October, the housing supply is being threatened. In October, 64 homes sold, up 12% from September, but new listings were down 22% month over month. The typical detached house sold in October for $1,460,700, up 3.6% (yes, that is about $44,000) from September. There is 2-month supply of homes in this seller’s market.

Surrey: Remember when Surrey houses were super affordable compared to most markets north of the Fraser River? Those were the days. In October, with 363 detached-house sales, the Surrey benchmark house price was $1,507,400, which is close to values in Burnaby and Coquitlam. Surrey house prices are now 32% higher than in October 2020. Townhouse benchmark prices, at $746,400, are up 26% for the year and 2.6% higher than in September. Benchmark apartment prices are now $462,200 in Surrey, but are rising an average of 1.6% per month. But note that, as in Greater Vancouver, active listings are down sharply from a year ago.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“Effort only fully releases its reward after a person refuses to quit.”

Napoleon Hill

Election over but the effects will linger in Metro Vancouver

The federal election is over and those who think nothing has changed should prepare themselves for some of the most intrusive legislation ever into the private-sector housing market. It has never been more apparent that this much housing policy is a reaction to headlines and social media. Common sense is trumped by the need to appear to be doing something, anything, to get elected.

For instance, foreign home buyers – already subject in B.C. the highest taxes in the world – are now virtually a non-entity in the Metro Vancouver real estate market, in both the commercial and residential sectors. Yet, at the same time that the federal government wants to increase immigration to 400,000 persons per year, it plans to ban foreign purchases of Canadian homes for two years. This means that someone planning to move to Canada cannot buy and prepare a home for their family’s arrival until they achieve citizenship without paying perhaps a hefty tax. A family will also be penalized if they purchase an apartment for their foreign student in Vancouver. Please come but don’t touch.

Then there is the plan to reduce the cost of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. insurance by 25 per cent while increasing the ceiling on eligible mortgages to $1.25 million, from $1 million.

Hello? This is clearly an inflationary measure, convincing more entry level buyers to purchase while doing nothing to increase affordability.
There is also the planned anti-flipping tax, which is politically palatable but a disincentive to increasing the much-needed supply of affordable strata homes or rentals. This is because land assembly of existing houses or strata windups is often the first step in multi-family development. These properties are, ideally, assembled and then sold within a year to speed the development process. Another layer of tax on homes bought and sold within 12 months will discourage development while adding higher costs to the resulting new strata or rental units.

Port Moody is among the markets that could be hurt. A large new residential development approved for the city’s Coronation Park area – updated in September to now include 2,650 strata units and a rent-to-own program– spurred single-family land assemblies in the area for higher-density homes, such as badly-needed townhouses. In September, only 19 townhouses were added to Port Moody listings, and 14 of them sold. A mere 28 new townhouse units have started construction in Port Moody for all of this year.

Port Moody has a dramatic shortage, but there is a pressing need for middle-market housing right across Greater Vancouver. In September the total active listings for townhouses was less than 1,100 units, down nearly 50 per cent from the same period a year ago. In fact, the total number of residential listings in Greater Vancouver hasn’t been this low in September going back to 1993 and beyond.

So what to do? As always, keep calm and carry on. Responsible people want and need to buy a home for their family’s comfort and financial security and will continue to do so, regardless of the barriers to their destination.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 2021

• Province eases regulations on ALR land

• Land assemblies increase in East Vancouver, suburbs

• Active listings plunge nearly 50% in the Fraser Valley

• West Side, West Vancouver tilting towards a buyer’s advantage

Greater Vancouver market summary: Total residential sales in Greater Vancouver in September were 3,200, down from 3,714 in September of 2020, but slightly higher than the 3,178 sold in August 2021. While not a spectacular month for sales, likely a reflection of the lower selection, September sales were 20% above the 10-year average for this month while the number of new listings was 1% below the 10-year average.

Year over year, condo apartment sales are tracking above September 2020, while detached and townhouse sales are slowing. Compared to September 2020, the number of condo apartment sales this year were up 1%, while townhouse transactions were down 20% and detached homes 27% lower.

It is no coincidence that the sector with the highest supply – condo apartments – is also seeing the highest sales increase. The slowdown in the townhouse and detached-housing markets in September can be traced to a lack of inventory in both sectors.

Overall average residential prices are lower now than at peak prices in April across Greater Vancouver, but there are variations among markets. The average home price in September was $1,174,305, compared to $1,211,233 in April of this year, when sales had hit more than 5,000 transactions for the second straight month.

Fraser Valley market summary: Sales in the Fraser Valley were down 10.6% in September from August, but the total of 1,866 transactions was still the second-highest September in the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s 100-year history. September, however, ended with a total active inventory of 3,812 homes, down 48.3% compared to September 2020, which drove prices higher across the board. Average prices for single-family detached houses were up 31% from a year earlier and 1.8% higher than in August, to $1,491,989. Townhouse average prices were $773,728, up nearly 5% from August and 27.6% above September 2020. The Valley-wide condo price was $493,188, up 15.6% from September 2020 but virtually unchanged (up 0.7%) from August of 2021.

Vancouver Westside: Despite a 4% dip in total sales from August, September’s 567 total transactions were up 6% from a year earlier and the West Side saw a welcome influx of new listings. Total new listings were up 36% from a month earlier and active listings reached 2,554 properties, the vast majority of them condo apartments. The headline news for the trend-setting Westside, however, is that the total supply is now at 5 months, which is tilting it from a seller’s market to a balanced, even hinting at a buyer’s market for the first time in years.

The detached housing market, however, received only 220 new listings in September – up by just 40 from a month earlier – and the average house price settled at $3,573,268, down about $90,000 from both August of this year and September 2021. The sales to listing ratio was 37%, the lowest level since May and the lowest September ratio since 2019. If the active listings and sales of detached houses continue at the same pace, there is a 9-month supply on the market, which signals a buyer’s market. For those aspiring to a detached house on the Westside, this may be the time to take action.

Townhouse prices, at an average of $1,662,908, however, were $270,000 higher than in September 2020 and up $73,000 from August of this year. There were 66 townhouse sales in September from total new listings of 116, creating a sales-to-listing ratio of 57%, compared to 86% a month earlier. The lack of inventory is keeping prices high, resulting in some frustrated buyers retreating from the market.

Westside condominium apartment sales present a different story. With 892 new listings added in September and a total of 1,579 condos now on the market, the average price dipped slightly from August, down about $5,000 to $957,893 for the 416 sales in September. Condo sales were down slightly from August, and September’s sales-to-listing ratio of 47% was well off the monthly pace this year and indicative of the cooling market we are seeing this autumn across most of Greater Vancouver. Perhaps that’s why CMHC’s risk report put Vancouver at low compared to high in Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Halifax and Moncton.

Vancouver East. Regular readers will know my belief that Vancouver East is the current and housing market of the future in Greater Vancouver. September emphasized that confidence. Sales in the month surged 25% from August and new listings were up 47%. The result was a great selection and a sales-to-listing ratio of 58%. There is a 3-month supply of inventory in East Vancouver as this strong seller’s market continues.

Vancouver East detached houses, I believe, present good value. The average detached house price in September was $1,846,657. This is lower than the North Shore, Richmond and most of Burnaby, and a startling $1.6 million less than in neighbouring West Side. But none of these markets have the new St. Paul’s hospital underway, the rapidly-growing tech sector or the coming SkyTrain twin-subway extension seen in East Vancouver. Take a drive through Mount Pleasant or visit the 450-acre False Creek Flats north of Great Northern Way to see where Vancouver’s future is heading. East Vancouver detached house owners should be aware that land assemblies will become a major factor in this market over the next few years, if not months.

East Vancouver had 187 townhouses for sale in September, the highest inventory seen in most Greater Vancouver markets. September townhouse sales, at 75, were up 92% from August and the average sale price of $1,258,332 was the highest level this year, and $120,000 above September 2020. The sales-to-new-listing ratio held steady at 53%, close to the average since May of this year.

Condo apartment sales in East Vancouver, at 115 in September, were up from 97 in August but lower than the monthly average this year. With 224 new listings, the sales ratio was 51%, the lowest since January. Despite this, the average condo price reached $808,000, up $34,000 from August and $100,000 higher than a year earlier.

North Vancouver: Total housing sales were up 9% in September from a month earlier, to 230 homes, which was 30% higher than in September 2020. Active listings were up from August, with a 70% surge in new listings to a total of 507 homes for sale at the end of September. With a mere 2-month supply, North Vancouver is very much a seller’s market.

Detached houses sales, at 70, were the highest in three months and the average detached house price in September was $2,227,213,the highest level this year and up a startling $435,000 from September 2020. The sales ratio for detached houses was 53% with 144 new listings added to the market in the month.

City-centre detached owners should watch for land assembly action that has started near the massive civic redevelopment planned for the Harry Jerome community centre in Central Lonsdale. The new complex won’t complete until 2025. The city does not allow higher-density zoning in the area today, but some developers are assembling lots in anticipation of future potential such as townhouse zoning.

North Vancouver townhouse listings added just 46 units to the market in September and new listings have not reached 50 townhouses a month since May. Sales in September, at 35, resulted in a 76% sales ratio. The average North Vancouver townhouse sold for $1,332,543, up $195,000 from September 2020, reflecting the high demand and low inventory.

Condominium apartment sales dominated the September market, with 115 sales, but the sales-to-new-listing ratio dropped to 51%, the lowest level this year. The average condo price is now $808,207, up more than $100,000 from a year ago.

West Vancouver: One of the most prestigious markets in Canada is moving towards a buyer’s market with an 8-month supply of homes on the market, but buyers still pay premium prices. The average sale price of the 41 detached houses sold in September was $3,536,476. This price is up 13% from a year ago, but below the monthly average this year. With a total of 440 detached houses for sale, there is healthy selection and buyers can take advantage. There were only 11 new listings for townhouses in September and 10 of them sold at a benchmark price of $1,292,000. There were 20 condo apartment sales, unchanged from August, at a benchmark of $1,162,000, up 5.5% from a month earlier.

Richmond: Richmond housing sales and listings were down in September, rather dramatically, with sales dropping 32% compared to a year earlier and total active listings down nearly 50% year-over-year to just 320 properties, yet strata prices are soaring. September townhouse prices broke the $1 million average-price barrier for the first time in Richmond as 90% of the 107 new listings sold. Richmond has only a 2-month supply of townhouses in a white-hot seller’s market.

Condo sales led Richmond’s September action, with 230 transactions and 584 active listings, with average condo prices up nearly $100,00 from a month earlier at $641,218.

Detached houses posted 106 sales from 184 new listings in September, and the average price was down slightly from August, at $1,935,761.
There is a buzz in Richmond due the easing of rules regarding the Agriculture Land Reserve (ALR). The province recently ruled that smaller farms (100 acres or less) can add a secondary residence, if approved by the local municipality. Richmond has many small ALR parcels, many less than an acre, and the ruling may increase their attraction to buyers. The changes, which come in December 31, 2021, represent a slight opening in restrictions that have limited residential use on about 150,000 acres of ALR land in Metro Vancouver for 45 years.

Ladner: Forget for a moment that a gigantic 8-lane replacement for the Massey Tunnel is coming to its doorstep or that the City of Ladner launched a program in September that is unapologetic about aiming to attract higher-density residential development. Instead, think of living in an historic riverside community with startling real estate potential. A lot of people have: 84% of the new listings in Ladner sold in September – a sales ratio that has held steady for months – and total sales were up 9% from August, to 38 transactions. Detached houses sold in September at a benchmark in the $1.3 million range, but Ladner has been posting among the highest month-over-month price increases over the past six months. Something is stirring in sunny Ladner.

Tsawwassen: Ladner’s neighbouring Tsawwassen saw total sales dip 23% in September from a month earlier and its sales-to-new-listing ratio is also more subdued 78%, down from 112% in August. Active listings have plunged, with 133 this September compared to 308 at the same time last year. Detached-house prices are benchmarked at $1,409,800, 7% from six months ago but unchanged (up 0.3%) from August 2021. Tsawwassen townhouses are in high demand, even at the current benchmark price of $856,000.

Burnaby East: Total housing sales reached 38 units, not much changed from a month or a year earlier. Total active listings also held steady, though low, at 83 per month for two months straight. Townhouses supplied the drama in September as the sales-to-new-listing ratio hit 131% due to a mere 13 new listings compared to 17 sales. The average townhouse price shot up to record high of $1,006,000 as a result. The overall sales-to-new-listing ratio for all homes is 78%, as the housing shortage becomes apparent in this seller’s market.

Burnaby North: This market has seen a lot of new housing starts over the past three years, but most have been condos, not townhouses, which remain in high demand. In September, 31of the 36 new listings for townhouses sold and a lack of inventory is all that is keeping sales in check. Multiple offers are still common here, as the average townhouse price jumped $50,000 in a single month to $956,712 in September. The detached-housing action was more subdued with a 62% sales-to-new-listing ratio, and the 32 detached sales seeing an average price of $1,782,633, the lowest monthly level since January 2021. The condo apartment market posted 125 sales, highest in four months, at an average price of $681,673, with a sales-success ratio of 66%.

Burnaby South: Home prices in Burnaby South have barely budged in three months and sales, while historically high, where down 8% in September from August. The composite benchmark home prices is just over $1 million as it has been since the early summer. The overall housing inventory is steady at a 3-month’s supply and the sales-to-listing ratio is also solid at 64 per cent in September. This is a seller’s market, and a stable one.

New Westminster: The Royal City was one of the hottest markets earlier this year, but the pace slowed in September, with overall housing sales down 10% in as compared to August and new listings up 42% in the same period, resulting in a 52% sales-to-listing ratio, which is about as balanced as it gets. In August, the same ratio was 80%. An opportunity could be opening in the New Westminster detached housing market, with the sales ratio down to 35% in September, the lowest since mid-2020, and the average price tracking down to $1,333,614. There is a six-month supply of detached houses on the market – 81 houses – which is trending towards a buyer’s advantage.

Coquitlam: Coquitlam saw total sales dip 13% in September, to 247, compared to a month earlier and were 19% lower than in the same month last year, while the supply of homes is increasing. There are 577 total active listings, up from 551 in August, though they are down about 40% from a year ago. The condo sector posted a 76% sales-to-new-listing ratio to lead the market, with 133 sales at an average price of $634,777, the highest level of any month this year. Townhouse sales dipped to 37 units, down from a three-month average of 48, but 74% of the new listings sold at an average price of $955,854. September saw 74 detached-house sales, the lowest level this year, and average price, at $1,599,752, has been fairly constant since the start of the year.

Port Moody: Port Moody has been flirting with a housing boom for three years, with plenty of plans for new development but a lack of actual construction. That could change over the next few months and the supply would be welcomed. There were only 158 active listings in September and that included only 14 new listings for townhomes and just 50 condo apartments available for sale. The sale-to-listing ratio is in the 75% range for both strata sectors. The planned new developments, including the 2,500 homes planned for the Coronation Park area, has increased interest in single-family lot assemblies. The average detached-house price in September was $1,736,346 and 80% of the 30 new listings sold.

Port Coquitlam: Good, stable Port Coquitlam saw a total of 97 home transactions in September, unchanged from August 2021 and up 15% from the same month a year ago. New listings increased 25% from a month earlier and the sales-to-listing ratio was a steady 64%, meaning a seller’s market. More detached house listings are needed, because all 34 new listings in September sold. Unlike many markets, more detached houses sell in Port Coquitlam each month than townhouses or condos. Note to first-time buyers, though: the average price for a Port Coquitlam condo is now $495,000, among the lowest in Greater Vancouver.

Pitt Meadows: Pitt Meadows is a small housing market and it is among the tightest for supply in Metro Vancouver. The total inventory of homes for sale is down to a 1-month supply as sales leaped 71% in September from a month earlier. There are only 47 active listings, compared to 100 at this time last year. Detached house prices are 6% higher than six months ago, at an average of $1,212,000, and average townhouse prices have risen 12.2% in the same period to $759,000. The overall sales-to-listing ratio is a stunning 93%. If you want to buy in Pitt Meadows, better hurry before all the listings have disappeared.

Maple Ridge: Maple Ridge has been attracting many buyers from Vancouver and the inner suburbs this year due to its lower prices and increasingly sophisticated new strata housing. In September, buyers were purchasing detached houses for a benchmark of $1.2 million and condo apartments for $441,000, the lowest prices in any Metro market north of the Fraser River, save for neighbouring Pitt Meadows. There is only a 2-month supply of total residential listings and sales to listings ratio in September was 84%, an indication that Maple Ridge could see a continual elevation in home prices.

Surrey: Anyone fortunate enough to take a tour from South Surrey’s Crescent Beach to Central Surrey’s high-rise downtown would have to admit this city on pace to surpass Vancouver as the biggest metropolis in B.C. About 1,000 new business open every year in Surrey and 1,000 people move in every month. In September, 308 detached houses sold in Surrey at an average price of $1,606,000, a price up 28.6% from a year earlier and 2.7% higher than in August 2021. But Surrey is suffering from a lack of listings, with detached listings down as much as 50% and active listings for townhouses down 64% in north Surrey and 40% in South Surrey-White Rock from a year ago. Even condo listings have fallen up to 40% in key markets like Central Surrey and North Surrey, though condo prices remain relatively affordable across Surrey at an average of $485,000 in September. But if even forward-looking Surrey is facing a shortage of housing, you know something must be done to increase the supply across Metro Vancouver, or we will all be facing much higher prices in the near future.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

“Between saying and doing, many a pair of shoes is worn out.”

Iris Murdoch

Townhouse sector exposes razor-thin housing supply

We are in the heat of a hastily-called federal election and housing is the central platform of the major parties, all of which say they will make housing more affordable for the so-called ‘missing middle’, us common folk who may simply need to buy a townhouse.

Yet the Lower Mainland’s townhouse market exposes the razor-thin housing supply that is the true barrier to more affordable and accessible housing. Townhouses are hugely popular, providing indoor and outdoor space and ground level living at a price that is generally half that of detached house in the same community. With the right planning, zoning and development permit streamlining, they are simpler and faster to build than high-rise condo towers and provide four to six times the density of a detached house. Yet, out of a total of 216 new listings in August across North Vancouver, Coquitlam, Richmond and South Delta combined, only four townhouses remained unsold at month’s end.

In Port Moody, where 217 townhouses have sold since January, only 9 townhouses were added to the market in August: and 8 of them sold. And, in the Fraser Valley in August, 94 out of every 100 townhouse listings were snapped up by month’s end. The result is not surprising: the average townhouse price has increased by $165,555 in the past year alone across the Lower Mainland. Townhouses are the homes the missing middle are looking for, yet the federal election promises are almost totally focused on building subsidized rental apartments. The supply is shallow across the entire Metro housing market. The total number of new listings in August were at levels last seen in 2018-19, two of the slowest years in real estate since the turn of the century.

With 3,166 properties sold across Greater Vancouver in August, new listings were in a freefall, dropping to 4,099 homes. After declining for months, total active listings at the end of the month were just 9,243 units. This compares with more than 13,500 in August of 2020 and more than 10,300 active listings in July 2021. Without a significant increase in listings in September, pressure will again be on prices this fall as buyer activity picks up from the summer break. While some pulled back from real estate activities this month, the lack of properties available likely limited activity of buyers as they waited in anticipation of new listings that never came in August. And like Charlie Brown waiting to kick the football, will it get pulled away again in September if sellers still hold back from listing?

Repeated attempts to stifle housing demand in Greater Vancouver have failed simply because people desire the freedom and financial gains that homeownership provides.
After suffering under the speculation tax, the foreign-home buyer tax, the vacant homes tax, the property transfer tax, rising development fees and community amenity costs, the current federal government now plans to add an anti-flipping tax that will chip away at home equity and punish flexibility. Metro Vancouver home buyers are the most resilient in the country, as shown in August which posted the sixth highest for any August on record.

All that is needed to regain balance in this market is increased supply.

Evidences is seen in the current condominium market. August condo sales were far above the detached and townhouse markets. And a key reason is supply and selection. In August there were more new listings – 2,158 – for condos than for detached houses and townhouses combined. As well, there are about 38,000 new condos under construction across Metro Vancouver, compared to just 3,150 new townhouses and about 2,000 detached houses.

Condo sales in August were up 22% year over year, while townhouse sales were down 7% and detached homes off by 14%. But here is the clincher: despite the soaring sales, a healthy supply has kept condo prices relatively in check: the average Lower Mainland condo apartment has increased in value by 6.9% in the past year (to $729,700), compared to 12.6% for detached houses (to $1,615,000) and 13.1% for townhouses (to $849,900), both of which are seeing a significant shortage. Supply is the answer. The rest is rhetoric. Remember this at the voting booth on September 20.

August Housing Market Highlights

Biggest year-over-year detached house price increase: Westside Vancouver, up $422,000.
Deepest month-over-month sales drop: Pitt Meadows, down 38%
Lowest number of new townhouse starts in 2021: North Vancouver City, Zero.
Biggest month-over-month detached house price decrease: Port Moody, down 0.4%
Biggest month-over-month new listings increase: Port Coquitlam, up 6%

Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver August 2021

Greater Vancouver: Total housing sales in August were 3,166 – down from 3,375 (-6%) in July 2021, but up 1% from August 2020. Condominiums accounted for most of the sales, caused partially by the lack of option. With a lack of townhouses, condominium apartments capture demand from all parts of the market – investors, first- time buyers, downsizers and buyers moving from one condo to another. Total active residential listings were at 9,494 at month end compared to 13,511 at that time last year and 10,367 at the end of July; new listings in August were down 9% compared to July 2021, and down 31% compared to August 2020. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and the August sales- to-listings ratio of 77% compared to 75% in July 2021 and 52% in August 2020.

Fraser Valley: Total residential transactions in the Fraser Valley in August were 2,087, the strongest August performance since 2005. But the inventory of homes for sale has dropped to 1980 levels. In August, only 2,107 new listings were added, down 37% from a year earlier and the lowest monthly level this year. August ended with total active inventory sitting at 4,077, a 16.8% decrease compared to July 2021, and 45% fewer than in August 2020.

Vancouver Westside: Westside detached house sales saw a decline in sales, month over month, while townhome and apartment sales were the highest since May. Price was likely a factor. The benchmark detached house price in August was $3,462,000, up 12.2% – that is $422,000 – from a year earlier, though unchanged from July 2021. (As an aside on Westside house appreciation: In 1960 Vancouver retailer Sonny Wosk paid $121,500 for a ‘mansion’ on South Granville. It was listed this week for $19.8 million.) Total Westside housing sales in August were 593, up 4% from a month earlier and 21% higher than in August 2020. Active Listings were at 2,389 at month end compared to 2,671 at that time last year and 2,558 at the end of July 2021. New listings in August were down 1% compared to July 2021 and down 24% compared to August 2020. Condos dominated the Westside market, accounting for 443 of the 597 sales and 70% of the total new listings. The total sales-to-listing ratio was 65%, up from 61% in July and far ahead of the 41% in August of last year.

Vancouver East Side: August sales reached 295 homes, down from 360 (-18%) in July 2021, down from 330 (-11%) in August 2020. Even at a benchmark price of $1,689,700, East Side detached sales in August were the second highest of any Greater Vancouver submarket, with 105 transactions. The East Side condominium market, which saw 155 sales in August, offers comparative value with a benchmark price of $629,500, about $100,000 less than the Lower Mainland average. Condo investors are quite active in this market as construction of the SkyTrain Broadway and Millennial Line extensions become visible and work starts on the massive $2.1 billion new St. Paul’s hospital campus.

Active listings were at 1,090 at month end compared to 1,319 at that time last year and 1,191 at the end of July; New Listings in August were down 12% compared to July 2021 and 42% lower than in August 2020. The supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply and the sales to listings ratio of 69% compares to 74% in July 2021 and 45% in August of last year. This remains a solid seller’s market.

North Vancouver: North Vancouver is suffering a startling lack of inventory. Only 439 homes were added in August, down nearly 50% from August of 2020 and below the 512 new listings in July of this year. North Vancouver continues to be inventory starved and with little new strata development, this will be an issue in the years to come. Not a single new townhouse has started construction this year in North Vancouver City and just 17 have started in North Vancouver District, as examples of the looming shortage. Total August sales were lower, at 212 transactions, down 16% from a month earlier and down 15% from the same month a year earlier. The supply shortage is reflected in prices: detached houses benchmarked at $1,865,800 in August and townhouse prices reached $1,140,100, third highest in Metro Vancouver and up about $114,000 from just six months ago. There were 99 condo apartment sales in August, at a benchmark price of $649,600. With the total sales-to-listing ratio running at 86%, North Vancouver has a mere 2 month supply of housing at the current sales pace. I would advise any owners considering a sale to list now into a seller’s market on steroids.

West Vancouver: New condominiums in Ambleside – the first in years in the waterfront community – are being listed north of $6 million to give an idea of the rarified market in West Vancouver. The city saw total sales fall in August to 67 transactions, down 21% from a month earlier but exactly the same as in August of last year. At a benchmark of $3,088,900, detached sales led the market, accounting for 43 of the transactions. Active Listings were at 536 at month end compared to 667 at that time last year and 572 at the end of July; New Listings in August were down 18% compared to July 2021 and down 33% compared to August 2020. With 52% of new listings selling, West Vancouver is considered a rare balanced market in Metro Vancouver.

Richmond: Richmond is seeing a spike in the supply of new homes this year, with starts rising 158% in the second quarter, to 294 units, compared with the same period in 2020. They will be needed. Richmond total housing sales in August were 3% higher than a month earlier and 29% above the pace in August 2020. New listings, however, dropped 12% from July 2021 and 20% below the same month a year ago. Due partially to a rezoning move three years, which encouraged townhouse construction along major roadways, Richmond had the highest new listings for townhouses of any Metro Vancouver market in August, with 107. But with a 99% sales-to-listing ratio, there was only one townhouse still available at month’s end from what came on. The benchmark price of a Richmond townhouse is now $938,400. Detached houses now sell at a benchmark of $1,9120,400, up 10.1% from six months earlier. Richmond’s inventory of total residential listings is down to a 3 month’s supply, with a sales-to-listings ratio of 82% in August.

Ladner: Like all of South Delta, Ladner should be getting ready for a new 8-lane, $4.15 billion traffic tunnel expected to be built by 2030, replacing the current George Massey crossing. The Massey Tunnel replacement has been debated for years, but the province appears confident this time. Whenever it is opened, it will change Ladner home values forever. Ladner, where the benchmark detached house price in August was $1,287,300, saw a total of 35 residential sales, down 6% from a month earlier. With a sales-to-listing ratio of 77%, active listings were up 9% from July and there is an estimated 3 month supply of inventory.

Tsawwassen: This South Delta community bucked the Metro sales trends in August as sales rose 28% from July, to 74 transactions. It fit the listing pattern, however, as active listings dropped to 142 homes, down from 168 in July and about 60% below August 2020. The result is a screaming seller’s market, with the sales-to-listing ratio at 112% in August – highest in Metro Vancouver. Tsawwassen has posted a 3.1% composite home price increase over the last three months, also the strongest in the Metro region. This should be a strong September market- if buyers can find anything left to buy.

Burnaby East: This more affordable market – the composite benchmark home price is $1,018,300, the lowest in Burnaby – saw total sales drop 37% in August from a month earlier, to just 29 transactions. Active listings were 83 at month end, unchanged from July; New listings were down 11% compared to July 2021 and 20% lower compared to August 2020. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 3 month’s as the sales-to-listings ratio dipped to 57% compared to 81% in July 2021. This is a seller’s market that is tilting towards balance.

Burnaby North: As if North Burnaby didn’t have enough going for it, a new $127 million community centre has just been announced for its Confederation Park, which already has three large community complexes. The new centre will address the rapid growth in the market, which also includes the massive Brentwood development. Total housing sales in August were down 8% from July 2021 and when compared to August of last year. Active Listings were at 467 at month end compared to 591 at that time last year and 497 at the end of July. New listings in August were down 12% compared to July 2021, and down 31% compared to August 2020. The current sales to listings ratio of 76% reflects the ongoing seller’s market.

Burnaby South: Burnaby South has the highest detached house prices in the municipality, at a benchmark of $1,788,100 in August, but it also has the most stable sales. Total August transactions, at 199 homes, were down just 1% from July and 53% higher than in August 2020. With new listings increasing 4% from July, the August sales-to-listing ratio was 71%, down slightly from the 75% pace in July, but still indicative of a seller’s advantage.

New Westminster: That rumbling noise from the Royal City waterfront in September will be from 429 cement trucks feeding the largest continuous concrete pour in the Metro region this year, for a 53-storey condo high-rise rising from the Quay. Condos are big news in New West. In August 103 condo apartments sold, dwarfing the 23 sales of townhouses and 21 detached house transactions. While total sales were down 10% from July, this remains a clear seller’s market. Condo transactions represented an 81% sales-to-listing ratio and 91% of new listings for detached houses sold during the month, at a benchmark price of $1,328.500. This compares to condo prices at $567,100 and townhouse benchmarks at $845,500. The current supply of total residential listings is steady at a 2 month’s supply.

Coquitlam: While Coquitlam Town Centre continues to emerge, Burquitlam’s master planned neighbourhood, also linked to SkyTrain, is coming to life big time. In the works are a new $77 million YMCA fitness and health centre, 31 and 50-storey condo towers, a new park and a new police station, plus a retail village, with much of it completed within two years. With an overall sales-to-listing ratio of 93% in August, Coquitlam is also a very strong housing market. The composite home prices is $1,093,400, virtually unchanged for three months, as are sales which were up 3% from July to 293 transactions, even as new listings were down 11% in the same period.

Port Moody: The small waterfront suburban city has had development challenges in the past, but has just received $403,000 in funding from the Union of B.C. Municipalities, money that is meant to streamline the development process. The PoMo market is tight, with a drop in total new listings – just 76 in August – and a sales-to-listing ratio of 73% that spiked to 100% for townhouse listings. This is a seller’s market and anything to help increase supply would likely be appreciated by buyers.

Port Coquitlam: Port Coquitlam is the affordable destination in the Tri-Cities, the only market where the composite benchmark is under $1 million, at $924,300 in August. One can buy condo apartments at a benchmark of $523,300, even less. Total sales in August were down 6% from a month earlier, at 103 transactions, but new listings were up 6%, which is rare in Metro Vancouver. The August sales-to-listing ratio was a robust 84% and hit 94% in July, indicating a seller’s market where the inventory is moving quite quickly.

Pitt Meadows: With a composite home benchmark price of $924,300 in August, Pitt Meadows was automatically on the radar for family buyers. Condos priced at a benchmark of $544,300, a value that has held steady for three months, continue to attract first-time buyers and investors. Sales have slowed, though, with August transactions down 38% from July, though listings were up modestly from a month earlier at 49. The August sales-to-listing ratio dropped to 64%, compared to a stunning 108% in July.

Maple Ridge: Active listings in August plunged more than 50% from a year ago, down to 318 homes, and new listings were off 7% compared to last month. But new supply is coming, with 174 new townhouses and 383 new condo apartments under construction. Sales remain strong, down a mere 2% from July in August to 185 transactions. With a composite home price of just over $1 million, Maple Ridge edge as an affordable market is being challenged, but the benchmark price for townhouses is $686,900, lowest in Greater Vancouver, and these prices have held stable, up just 1.3% over the past three months. With the sales-to-listing ratio at 84% in August, the new housing supply will be welcomed.

Surrey: The second-biggest B.C city saw total detached house sales rise 4.3% in August compared to July 21, but were down 11.8% from August 2020. The average detached house in Surrey sold for $1,564,060, which is nudging closer to the Greater Vancouver benchmark. Townhouse posted 301 sales in August at an average price of $715,500, up 22% from a year earlier. The lowest strata prices are in North Surrey, where townhouse benchmark at $607,500 and typical condo apartments traded at $427,500 in August.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty